Crude Oil - OPEC expects growth in global oil production

According to OPEC estimates, the trend for the recovery of quotations of "black gold" can be continued against the background of an increase in production. According to preliminary data, by the end of 2022, production will increase by 1.9M barrels per day by countries outside the cartel, and the forecast for 2023 suggests that the indicator will add another 1.5M barrels per day, reaching 67.2M barrels. It is expected that the USA, Canada and Brazil will remain the leaders in the production of "black gold", while in Norway and Thailand it will decrease slightly.

According to Bloomberg, despite the restrictions, Russian oil supplies by sea last week reached a maximum since April 2022 of 3.8M barrels per day. China, India and Turkey stand out among the main destinations, while Bulgaria remains the only port of shipment to the EU.

On the daily chart, the price is trading in a narrow sideways range, moving away from the lows of the year at the level of 70.5. The technical indicators confirm the high probability of continued corrective growth, strengthening the buy signal.

Support levels: 78.44, 70.5 | Resistance levels: 83.28, 92.2

XRPUSD - The pair has stabilized after a week of growth

In general, investor enthusiasm has somewhat weakened, and the cryptocurrency market has stabilized in anticipation of new drivers of movement. Currently, further price growth is hindered by uncertainty over the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple. Recall that the regulator insists that the XRP token is an unregistered security, which the company does not agree with. Now the parties have submitted to the court the final versions of their arguments, but no decision has been made yet. The cryptocurrency community estimates Ripple's chances of a successful outcome of the case as high, but even in this case, new lawsuits by the department against the company are not excluded.

Investors are also concerned about the new management of the bankrupt FTX exchange gaining access to assets worth 5.5B dollars, a certain share of which are XRP tokens. It is assumed that they will be used to compensate customers for losses and can be sold, which will put additional pressure on the pair.  

The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.3906 (Murray level [8/8]), consolidation above which will give the prospect of further growth to the area of 0.4150 (Murray level [+2/8]) and 0.4330 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The resumption of a serious decline should be expected when the 0.3540 mark is broken down (Murray level [5/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), and in this case the quotes will be able to reach 0.3296 (Murray level [3/8]), 0.3174 (Murray level [2/8]).

Resistance levels: 0.3906, 0.4150, 0.4330 | Support levels: 0.3540, 0.3296, 0.3174

NZDUSD Touches the Second Target

The NZDUSD pair managed to touch our second waited target at 0.6510 and bounced downwards clearly from there, to test the intraday bullish channel’s support line now, accompanied by witnessing positive signals through stochastic, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that its next target reaches 0.6600.

Therefore, we suggest the continuation of the main positive scenario, noting that failing to consolidate above 0.6415 will put the price under additional negative pressure that targets 0.6345 followed by 0.6275 levels as next main stations. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6360 support and 0.6500 resistance

Shares of Tesla are at 128.

On the daily chart, the price is trying to consolidate within the corrective trend, trading within the corridor with dynamic boundaries of 139 – 126. On the four-hour chart, the upside potential is relatively small, despite holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci initial retracement at 125. 

Soon, an attempt to break this level and reduce quotes may follow. Otherwise, a scenario with local growth and achieving the base correction level of 38.2% by Fibonacci around 139 is possible.

AUDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction formed as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i has ended, a local correction has formed as the wave (iv) of i, and the wave (v) of i is forming. 

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.7200–0.7464. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6860.

USDCAD Achieves Clear Gains

The USDCAD pair rallied upwards yesterday to breach 1.2420 and touch the key resistance 1.3500, noticing that the price finds difficulty to surpass this level, accompanied by witnessing negative signals through stochastic, which supports the chances of bouncing bearishly to resume the bearish trend, which targets 1.3415 followed by 1.3350 levels as next negative stations. 

Therefore, we expect to witness bearish bias in the upcoming sessions unless the price managed to breach 1.3500 and hold with a daily close above it. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3415 support and 1.3560 resistance.

USDCHF Achieves the Negative Targets

The USDCHF pair succeeded to achieve our suggested negative targets, as it reached 0.9100 level, showing some temporary bullish bias affected by stochastic positivity, waiting to resume the main bearish trend that moves within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, to achieve negative targets that extend to 0.9020.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.9215 followed by 0.9275 levels and hold above them. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9080 support and 0.9215 resistance.

ADAUSD - Murray Analysis

The ADA/USD pair has been growing since the beginning of this year within the framework of a general market trend: last week the price rose to the three-month highs to the level of 0.3662 (Murray level [7/8], Fibo retracement 38.2%), after which it corrected to the area of 0.3300, where it is now trading.

A breakdown of the level of 0.3173 (Murray level [5/8], Fibo retracement 23.6%) may lead to the development of a decline to the level of 0.2929 (Murray level [4/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. If the level of 0.3418 (Murray level [6/8]) is broken out, a correction to the area of 0.3662 (Murray level [7/8]), 0.3906 (Murray level [8/8]), 0.4150 (Murray level [+1/8]) is possible.

In general, the resumption of the growth of quotations in the near future seems to be a more likely scenario, since the upward trend in the pair persists, which is confirmed by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands. At the same time, the development of a downward correction to the area of 0.2929 is also not excluded, but the price is unlikely to go lower, since the Stochastic is close to the oversold zone, which indicates a possible upward reversal.          

Resistance levels: 0.3418, 0.3662, 0.3906, 0.415 | Support levels: 0.3173, 0.2929, 0.2685

USDCAD - macroeconomic statistics did not support the position of the Canadian currency

The industrial goods price index lost 1.1% in December, exceeding the previous month's –0.5% decline, with annual growth slowing to 7.6% from 9.4% earlier. The value for commodities declined 3.1% after the –0.8% correction in November and from 7.9% to 7.5% YoY. The main reason for the negative dynamics is the fall in oil prices on world exchanges, where quotes of the benchmark Brent Crude Oil fell to 86.00.

The US dollar fell below the key support level of 102.000 in the USD Index against the negative statistics from the housing market: the volume of construction of new houses in December amounted to 1.382M, which was lower than 1.401M earlier, and the number of building permits issued amounted to 1.330M compared to 1.351M in November. Investors ignored data on initial jobless claims, which fell to 190.0K from 205.0K in a week.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is growing within the global Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries 1.3620–1.3300 towards the resistance line, and the technical indicators maintain a sell signal and hint at a correction.

Resistance levels: 1.3523, 1.3697 | Support levels: 1.3409, 1.3224

EURGBP Takes Advantage of the Additional Support Line Stability

The EURGBP pair faced additional negative pressures to form strong negative waves and suffer some losses by crawling towards 0.8722, to face additional support and settle above it, noting that the main stability within the bullish channel that appears on the chart allows us to wait to gather the additional positive momentum to manage to form bullish waves and target 0.8820 followed by pressing on 0.8880 barrier in order to find a way to resume the bullish rally in the upcoming period. 

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8740 and 0.8820.