USDJPY - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave of the lower level a of 4 develops. Now, the wave (v) of a is developing, within which the wave v of (v) is forming. 

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 127.36 – 121.67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 138.

Gold Breaks the Support

Gold price traded with strong negativity yesterday to break the bullish channel’s support line and head towards potential visit to 1776.25 level, making the bearish bias suggested for today, supported by moving below the EMA50. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaching 1800 will stop the negative pressure and lead the price to recover again, taking into consideration that the markets might witness mixed trades due to the general weak volumes, caused by the holidays season.

The expected trading range for today is between 1775 support and 1810 resistance.

Breaking: NATGAS Lowest Since March 2022

Natgas prices continue to move lower even despite growing supply concerns. Recent weather forecasts indicate that a winter storm will affect a large parts of the US, triggering warnings from Maine to the Gulf of Mexico, which threatens exports of LNG. This may increase in demand for energy to heat homes and offices. Meanwhile Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russian natural gas output could drop as much as 20% this year, while oil output may be reduced by 5 to 7% in response to price cap, which could increase demand for LNG from the US. On the other hand,  yesterday's EIA report showed a smaller-than-expected storage draw of US inventories, while Freeport LNG export plant in Texas expects to bring operations back online by the end of the year, with Refinitiv data showing that the plant was receiving natural gas this week. However, companies still need to put more effort into satisfying federal regulators before the plant is ready to fully restart operations.

NATGAS price broke below the key long-term support zone of $5.50 - $5.30, opening the way for further selloff. The next major support to watch lies around $4.30 and is marked with lower limit of the 1:1 structure (green rectangle), and 161.8% external Fibonacci retracement of  the last upward wave, which started on December 7.

DAX 40 - German stock market shows neutrality

The German stock market slowed down amid a positive report from the GfK Group, according to which German Consumer Sentiment continues to improve: the forecast for January 2023 suggests an increase in the index to -37.8 points from -40.1 points. Thus, the indicator shows growth for the third month in a row, which can serve as a positive signal and is a direct consequence of the effectiveness of the measures taken by the German government to support households in the face of high energy prices.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading well above the descending channel resistance line, continuing to reverse to the downside. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a new sell signal.

Support levels: 13800, 13400 | Resistance levels: 14100, 14600

USDCAD - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 and the wave (3) of 5 develop. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) has formed, a downward correction has ended as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the wave 5 of (5) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has formed, and the local correction ii of 5 has ended. 

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3466.

USDCHF - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the wave C of (2) has ended, and the upward wave (3) of 3 is developing. 

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9900 – 1.0151. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9205.

EURUSD keeps its positive stability

The EURUSD pair fluctuates within sideways trades since yesterday, keeping its stability above 1.0580 level, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, supported by stochastic move at the oversold areas, waiting to visit 1.0745 as a main target.

We remind you that breaking 1.0580 will press on the price to test the most important support at 1.0515 before any new positive attempt. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0560 support and 1.0710 resistance.

GBPUSD approaches the resistance

The GBPUSD pair provided temporary positive trades yesterday to approach the key resistance 1.2135, and bounced downwards quickly from there, to resume the correctional bearish track, waiting to test 1.1950 as a next main target. Therefore, we will keep our bearish overview unless breaching 1.2135 and holding with a daily close above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1940 support and 1.2100 resistance.

XAUUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum, and the fifth wave (5) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed, within which the wave v of 1 has ended, and a local correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (5). 

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the area of 1726.2 – 1699.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1833.20.

EURUSD - Trading near the resistance line of the rising corridor

Yesterday, November data on borrowings in the EU countries were presented, which was poor: the volume of loans to enterprises grew by 8.4% instead of the expected 8.6%, and to the private sector – by 4.1% instead of 4.3%. Today, investors will pay attention to the dynamics of the Spanish consumer price index in December, and, according to analysts' forecasts, the index, harmonized with EU standards, may slow down from 6.7% to 6.0%.

On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair show corrective growth and are confidently holding near the resistance line of the ascending corridor. Technical indicators point to continued growth.

Support levels: 1.0574, 1.0396 | Resistance levels: 1.0691, 1.0849