Market Overview by FXCC
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 02 2012
RBA cuts rate by 25bp; More may come in Nov
In today's RBA decision, the central bank has decided to cut rates by 25bp from 3.5% to 3.25%. The initial market reaction was to aggressively sell the domestic currency, as market participants pricing for -25bp to about 65% being proven right. Only 9 out of 28 replying to a Bloomberg survey agreed to such outcome, so it has been certainly a close call among the investment community.
All rates are expected to remain on hold at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, according to Standard Chartered Economists. With regards to OMT bond-buying, the bank sees Spain making a request relatively soon. Looking at the EUR/USD, "We expect the pair to grind lower as a Q4-2012 rate cut will add to pressure" Analysts at the bank say.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-02 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Halifax House Prices
2012-10-02 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction
2012-10-02 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Producer Price Index
2012-10-02 Tentative | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-02 05:04 GMT | AUD/NZD drops to new 2012 low after RBA
2012-10-02 05:01 GMT | EUR/AUD breaks above 2-week highs 1.25 post-RBA
2012-10-02 04:20 GMT | GBP/USD at risk for deeper correction?
2012-10-02 03:14 GMT | Buoyant AUD/JPY creeps above 81.00
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EURUSD : 1.29123 / 1.29126
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3010 | 1.2974 | 1.2938
1.2875 | 1.2841 | 1.2806
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: EURUSD closed at the positive territory yesterday and further strengthening is possible today. Yesterday high is the reference point for the upside penetration, though decrease below the suggested support level would enable bearish forces. Main scenario: Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2938 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2974 (R2) and 1.3010 (R3). Alternative scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2875 (S1) might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.2841 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61536 / 1.61541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6227 | 1.6201 | 1.6176
1.6123 | 1.6098 | 1.6070
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Consolidation, provided yesterday might extends its power however currently GBPUSD is gaining momentum on the upside and we expect to see retest of yesterday high. Main scenario: Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.6176 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.6201 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6227 (R3). Alternative scenario: Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.6123 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6098 (S2) and 1.6070 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.083 / 78.086
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.40 | 78.29 | 78.19
77.97 | 77.89 | 77.79
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit overbought territory and now is pointing down. We expect to see consolidation formation ahead prior further market strengthening. However, easing below the expected support level would suggest retracement development. Main scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at 78.19 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.29 (R2). Break here is required to enable last target for today at 78.40 (R3). Alternative scenario: Market decrease below the next support level at 77.97 (S1) would suggest about the retracement formation with next target at 77.89 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.79 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Broker | ECN Online Forex Trading | Forex Signal | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 03 2012
RBA cuts rate by 25bp; More may come in Nov
In today's RBA decision, the central bank has decided to cut rates by 25bp from 3.5% to 3.25%. The initial market reaction was to aggressively sell the domestic currency, as market participants pricing for -25bp to about 65% being proven right. Only 9 out of 28 replying to a Bloomberg survey agreed to such outcome, so it has been certainly a close call among the investment community.
All rates are expected to remain on hold at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, according to Standard Chartered Economists. With regards to OMT bond-buying, the bank sees Spain making a request relatively soon. Looking at the EUR/USD, "We expect the pair to grind lower as a Q4-2012 rate cut will add to pressure" Analysts at the bank say.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-02 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Halifax House Prices
2012-10-02 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction
2012-10-02 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Producer Price Index
2012-10-02 Tentative | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-02 05:04 GMT | AUD/NZD drops to new 2012 low after RBA
2012-10-02 05:01 GMT | EUR/AUD breaks above 2-week highs 1.25 post-RBA
2012-10-02 04:20 GMT | GBP/USD at risk for deeper correction?
2012-10-02 03:14 GMT | Buoyant AUD/JPY creeps above 81.00
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EURUSD 1.29123 / 1.29126
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3010 | 1.2974 | 1.2938
1.2875 | 1.2841 | 1.2806
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: EURUSD closed at the positive territory yesterday and further strengthening is possible today. Yesterday high is the reference point for the upside penetration, though decrease below the suggested support level would enable bearish forces. Main scenario: Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2938 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2974 (R2) and 1.3010 (R3). Alternative scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2875 (S1) might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.2841 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61536 / 1.61541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6227 | 1.6201 | 1.6176
1.6123 | 1.6098 | 1.6070
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Consolidation, provided yesterday might extends its power however currently GBPUSD is gaining momentum on the upside and we expect to see retest of yesterday high. Main scenario: Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.6176 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.6201 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6227 (R3). Alternative scenario: Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.6123 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6098 (S2) and 1.6070 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.083 / 78.086
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.40 | 78.29 | 78.19
77.97 | 77.89 | 77.79
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit overbought territory and now is pointing down. We expect to see consolidation formation ahead prior further market strengthening. However, easing below the expected support level would suggest retracement development. Main scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at 78.19 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.29 (R2). Break here is required to enable last target for today at 78.40 (R3). Alternative scenario: Market decrease below the next support level at 77.97 (S1) would suggest about the retracement formation with next target at 77.89 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.79 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 04 2012
Romney hits first in US debate
Is Mitt Romney breathing new life after the controversial campaign? It appears so after his first debate in front of Barack Obama. Polls show 56% of uncommitted voters say their opinion of Romney has changed for the better, while 13% say that about the President, according to Mark Knoller, CBS News White House Correspondent. According to results of CNN-ORC Post-Debate flash poll who won the debate, Romney 67%, Obama 25%.
A busy trading Thursday for the London session ahead as having plenty of risk events going on, starting with minor data in the form of CPI figures from the Netherlands at 07:00 GMT, followed by Ireland PM Kenny meeting with EU parliament president Schultz at 11:15 GMT, and then going for the long awaited ECB interest rates statement at 11:45 GMT, 45 minutes before ECB press conference starts. BoE will also deliver monetary policy announcement at 11:00 GMT which could add volatility to EUR/GBP cross. IMF will hold press conference at 14:30 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-04 11:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-04 11:45 GMT | European Monetary Union. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-04 14:00 GMT | United States. Factory Orders
2012-10-04 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-04 04:54 GMT | EUR/USD has a range to break; ECB unlikely to be the catalyst
2012-10-04 04:31 GMT | USD/CAD rally pauses below trend line resistance
2012-10-04 02:36 GMT | EUR/AUD hits stops above 1.2670
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EURUSD : 1.29279 / 1.29282
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3018 | 1.2987 | 1.2955
1.2895 | 1.2863 | 1.2829
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Markets would be driven today mostly by macroeconomic data releases. In focus ECB Interest rate decision at 11:45 GMT. From the technical side, deviation from its average parameters is low several days in a row and we expect to see volatility increase ahead. Main scenario: Next resistance level for today locates at 1.2955 (R1). Rise above it might lead to the further trend development with next possible targets at 1.2987 (R2) and 1.3018 (R3). Alternative scenario: Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.2895 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next supports at 1.2863 (S2) and 1.2829 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.60970 / 1.60977
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6198 | 1.6161 | 1.6127
1.6067 | 1.6034 | 1.6000
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument continued its weakening on the hourly chart and our indicators clearly state downtrend formation on the short term perspective however in such situation market focus on Bank of England Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT. Main scenario: Price might retest our support at 1.6067 (S1) on the downside. Break here would suggest next target at 1.6034 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting to 1.6000 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our next resistance stay at 1.6127 (R1), break here is required for market expansion towards to next targets at 1.6161 (R2) and 1.6198 (R3).
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USDJPY : 78.616 / 78.618
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.04 | 78.87 | 78.71
78.42 | 78.25 | 78.07
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Technically, USDJPY in uptrend formation and both moving averages acts now as dynamic support level. Fresh high, formed today is our key level for the further uptrend development. Main scenario: Next resistance ahead at 78.71 (R1), break here is required to open way for further appreciation towards to targets at 78.87 (R2) and 79.04 (R3). Alternative scenario: Price decline below the next support levels at 78.42 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 78.25 (S2). A break below it would suggest last target for today at 78.07 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calculator | ECN Forex Training | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 05 2012
ECB waits for Spain to act; bailout to come over the next month - Standard Chartered
The ECB looks set to keep rates on hold in November too, according to Standard Chartered European Economists Sarah Hewin and Thomas Costerg, while expecting recession "will trigger a cut by year-end" they note. Details on the new bond-buying plan remain thin, "but the ECB is likely to be tough on conditionality" the bank suspects. As per the timing abou the Spanish bailout, Standard Chartered thinks "they will need to ask for support over the next month, despite German reluctance."
"The ECB left its Refi rate unchanged in line with expectations, although market reaction does suggest there were at least some hopes for a rate cut today", says Vassili Serebriakov, Currency Strategist, Wells Fargo Bank. "With the ECB decision out of the way, markets will be looking ahead to US September nonfarm payrolls report", he says. "Judging from recent US data, the jobs numbers should not be particularly weak, which in our view could play into further gains in risk-sensitive commodity and emerging currencies".
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-05 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. Foreign Currency Reserves
2012-10-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders senectus
2012-10-05 12:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls
2012-10-05 19:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Credit Change
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-05 05:02 GMT | EUR/USD bulls regain upper-hand ahead of NFP fireworks
2012-10-05 03:40 GMT | USD/JPY drops to session lows post-BoJ
2012-10-05 03:14 GMT | BoJ Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 0.1%
2012-10-05 02:07 GMT | EUR/AUD stalling below 1.2720
EURUSD : 1.30154 / 1.30158
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3098 | 1.3065 | 1.3032
1.2998 | 1.2962 | 1.2926
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Bullish market sentiment remains in power today after the appreciation provided yesterday. United States Nonfarm Payrolls would be the main macroeconomic data release at 12:30 GMT. Main scenario: Brake above the resistance at 1.3032 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.3065 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to 1.3098 (R3). Alternative scenario: Break below the support at 1.2998 (S1) might provide necessary space for retracement development. We suggest next target at 1.2962 (S2) and 1.2926 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.61941 / 1.61945
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6289 | 1.6246 | 1.6204
1.6165 | 1.6123 | 1.6079
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: At the moment GBPUSD deviate from its up-trend formation and such stabilization might extend its power to the London session ahead. Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up and both moving averages are bullish, so far we expect further strengthening as main scenario later on today. Main scenario: Next resistance is maintained at 1.6204 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.6246 (R2) and 1.6289 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Decrease below the support at 1.6165 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6123 (S2) and 1.6079 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.391 / 78.395
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.04 | 78.80 | 78.58
78.25 | 78.02 | 77.79
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market trapped to the range trading mode after the yesterday gains. Medium term bias is positive and we expect to see retest of yesterday high today. However if the market depreciate below the support level we expect a correction development. Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 78.58 (R1). Break here is required to enable targets at 78.80 (R2) and 79.04 (R3). Alternative scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 78.25 (S1). Price progress below it might expose next targets at 78.02 (S2) and 77.79 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Blog | Forex Market Hours | ECN Automated Forex Trading] | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 08 2012
HSBC Services PMI at 54.3 signals improvement
According to Markit Economics, the HSBC Composite PMI (covering manufacturing and services PMI) signaled a renewed expansion in business activity at 54.3 in September, up from 52.0; below 50.0 signals contraction, while above signals industry expansion.
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:“Service sector growth picked up in September thanks to rising new business flows. This is likely an indication of a gradual improvement of domestic economic conditions due to the earlier easing measures and the stronger consumption demand in the run-up to the Golden week holiday.”
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-08 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Consumer Price Index
2012-10-08 10:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production
2012-10-08 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales
2012-10-08 23:45 GMT | Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-08 04:44 GMT | EUR/USD weekly start below 1.30
2012-10-08 03:52 GMT | AUD/JPY again below 80 round
2012-10-08 03:25 GMT | EUR/JPY dive stalls around 102 round
2012-10-08 01:22 GMT | USD/JPY limited below 100 DMA
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EURUSD : 1.29880 / 1.29885
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3070 | 1.3042 | 1.3013
1.2968 | 1.2942 | 1.2915
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Currently EURUSD trades on the negative side and we expect further consolidation development later on today as main scenario. However medium term tendency remains positive. Main scenario: Next upcoming support holds at 1.2968 (S1), break through here might take the pair towards to eventual targets located at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2915 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Price level at 1.3013 (R1) is a next attractive point for the uptrend penetration. If a break occur here we suggest gradual targets to be placed at 1.3042 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61085 / 1.61089
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6174 | 1.6153 | 1.6131
1.6094 | 1.6075 | 1.6053
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. We expect gradual decline towards to our support levels as main scenario today. Main scenario: If the market manage to brake next support level at 1.6094 (S1), we might exposure of possible targets at 1.6075 (S2) and 1.6053 (S3) later on today. Alternative scenario: Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.6131 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6153 (R2) and 1.6174 (R3) in potential
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USDJPY : 78.538 / 78.541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.96 | 78.81 | 78.64
78.42 | 78.26 | 78.10
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today and current range mode condition might extend its power for the remaining of the day. Main scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 78.64 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 78.81 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 78.96 (R3). Alternative scenario: Our next support level stay at 78.42 (S1). Loss here might drive market price towards to next targets at 78.26 (S2) and 78.10 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Systems | Forex Exchange Rates | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 09 2012
IMF cuts global GDPs forecast, dowside risks worsen
The IMF has lowered the euro zone GDP outlook for 2012 by -0.1% to -0.4% from -0.3%, while setting a +0.2% in 2013 from +0.7%. Progress toward banking, fiscal union is required for rosier revisions. ECB could cut rates further, the institution says. Japan 2012 growth forecast was also cut to 2.2% from 2.4%, 2013 stands now at 1.2% from 1.5%. The BOJ easing program may help its GDP target, although more is needed to reach 1% inflation goal. China 2012 growth forecast was downgraded to 7.8% from 8.0%, 2013 forecast at 8.2% from 8.5%. On the US front, IMF said “imperative” to avoid year-end fiscal cliff, as it could reduce 4% of GDP in 2013 in the worst case scenario. U.S., Canadian economies GDPs are projected at around 2% in 2012 and 2013, but both face large downside risks. Cuts 2012 global GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% in July and 2013 forecast to 3.6% from 3.9%. “General feeling of uncertainty” holding back global growth.
The UK is the focus of the day ahead, "with the August snapshot of industrial- and manufacturing sector output on offer as well as foreign trade data for the same month" Rabobank notes. The bank adds: "A small fall in industrial output is expected but after a pretty strong July reading, the sector is tracking to grow output in 3Q as a whole." The NIESR, a UK Think Tank, will also release their estimate of 3Q GDP growth.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
Tentative ECOFIN Meetings
2012-10-09 07:30 GMT | ECB President Draghi Speaks
2012-10-09 08:30 GMT | Manufacturing Production
2012-10-09 14:00 GMT | NIESR GDP Estimate
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-09 05:00 GMT | GBP/USD consolidating ahead of UK data
2012-10-09 03:58 GMT | EUR/USD still below 1.30
2012-10-09 03:56 GMT | Will GBP/JPY’s sell-off extend?
2012-10-09 00:39 GMT | AUD/USD breaks Monday's high, descending trendline
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EURUSD 1.29813 / 1.29817
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3049 | 1.3024 | 1.2999
1.2968 | 1.2942 | 1.2917
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday pair gained momentum on the downside and close on the negative territory however medium term bias remains positive for EURUSD. Main scenario: Pair is moving towards to our next resistance level at 1.2999 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3024 (R2) and 1.3049 (R3). Alternative scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 1.2968 (S1), break here might lead to the targets execution at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2917 (S3).
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GBPUSD 1.60419 / 1.60426
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6127 | 1.6096 | 1.6066
1.6019 | 1.5990 | 1.5961
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market sentiment is negative on GBPUSD as of yesterday sharp fall. We expect to see new lows formation today. Main scenario: Decline below the support level at 1.6019 (S1) would suggest next target at 1.5990 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5961 (S3). Alternative scenario: If the price manages to stay above the suggested support at 1.6019 (S1), we expect attack to the resistance level at 1.6066 (R1). Clearance here is required for the instrument strengthening towards to our targets at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6127 (R3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 78.404 / 78.406
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.76 | 78.62 | 78.48
78.28 | 78.14 | 78.00
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: USDJPY still is under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. Though, possibility of further market decline is high today. Main scenario: Next support level stays at 78.28 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 78.14 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 78.00 (S3). Alternative scenario: A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.48 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.62 (R2) and 78.76 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Indicators | Learn Forex | Trade Forex | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 15 2012
Case for an RBNZ rate cut mounts - BNZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may start to find it harder and harder to maintain its cash rate steady in the foreseeable future, according to BNZ economist Stephen Toplis. From Mr. Toplis: "A very weak PMI, followed by today’s weak PSI, intimates that Q3 GDP might print very poorly indeed. Consensus forecasts for global growth remain under pressure. The Australian economy is looking demonstrably shaky, resulting in grief for domestic manufacturers, and the RBA is easing. The NZD TWI sits stubbornly 1.4% above the RBNZ’s assumed Q4-average. And the annual CPI is about to print below the bottom edge of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range. We, thus, now put the probability of an easing as high as 35%."
The BNZ Analyt adds: "We stick with our view that rates are on hold for some time to come but warn that the downside risk should not be ignored. The market is now pricing in around an 85% chance of a cut over the coming 12 months. It’s been pricing in a reduction in rates consistently for much of the last year and we have railed against it. While we think the odds are overdone, the situation has certainly changed sufficiently for us to be much less aggressive in our dissension. For us the catalyst for an easing will be continued appreciation in the NZD accompanied by a stalling in the domestic housing market."
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15102012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales
2012-10-15 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
2012-10-15 19:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2012-10-15 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Consumer Price Index
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-15 04:49 GMT | GBP/USD maintains bearish tendencies
2012-10-15 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD new week, same range
2012-10-15 04:14 GMT | AUD/NZD choppy below 1.2550
2012-10-15 03:13 GMT | EUR/JPY slide supported by trendline
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EURUSD : 1.29080 / 1.29085
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2954 | 1.2937 | 1.2922
1.2890 | 1.2875 | 1.2860
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Today Instrument gained momentum on the negative side and formed correction from its initial uptrend formation. If it manages to break above the suggested resistance level we expect to see new step of uptrend development, otherwise depreciation below the support would lead to the deeper correction. Main scenario: Possible strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2922 (R1). Next targets holds at 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2954 (R3) levels. Alternative scenario: Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.2890 (S1), clear break here would be a signal of market weakening, targeting 1.2875 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.60385 / 1.60394
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6132 | 1.6096 | 1.6059
1.6024 | 1.5983 | 1.5944
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The medium term tendency is Bearish as both moving averages are pointing down and we expect that GBPUSD remains on the negative side today. Main scenario: Decrease below the expected support at 1.6024 (S1) might push price lower and enable our targets at 1.5983 (S2) and 1.5944 (S3). Alternative scenario: Upside formation is limited by next resistance level at 1.6059 (R1). If market manage to break it, further targets locates at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6132 (R3).
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USDJPY : 78.564 / 78.565
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.95 | 78.79 | 78.63
78.43 | 78.26 | 78.09
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Pair has settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe and fresh high, formed today is our reference point for the instrument appreciation. Main scenario: Our next resistance level for today stay at 78.63 (R1), break here would enable next targets at 78.79 (R2) and 78.95 (R3). Alternative scenario: Possible depreciation below the support level at 78.43 (S1) would suggest next targets at 78.26 (S2) and 78.09 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( What Is Forex Trading | Forex Trading Signals | ECN Forex Trading Online | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 17 2012
Moody’s confirms Spain’s government bond rating at Baa3, negative outlook
Moody’s issued the following statement in downgrading Spain’s sovereign credit rating outlook to negative: Moody’s Investors Service yesterday confirmed the Kingdom of Spain’s Baa3 government bond rating and assigned a negative outlook to the rating. In addition, Moody’s has confirmed Spain’s short-term rating at (P)Prime-3. Rating action concludes the review for possible further downgrade of Spain’s rating that Moody’s had initiated on 13 June 2012.
In summary, Moody’s believes that the combination of euro area and ECB support and the Spanish government’s own efforts should allow the government to maintain capital market access at reasonable rates, providing it with the time it needs to stabilise public debt over the next few years. In Moody’s view, the maintenance of market access is critical because the risk that some form of burden-sharing will be imposed on bondholders is material for those countries that rely entirely or to a very large extent on official-sector funding for an extended period of time.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-16 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2012-10-16 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. ZEW Survey - Expectations
2012-10-16 09:15 GMT | United Kingdom. BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speech
2012-10-16 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-17 02:55 GMT | GBP/USD at key 61.8 fibo; awaits BoE minutes
2012-10-17 01:26 GMT | USD/JPY ranges ahead of 79.00 sellers
2012-10-17 00:26 GMT | AUD/USD follows Euro tail; 1.0330/35 next hurdle
2012-10-16 21:32 GMT | EUR/USD tests 1.3100 on Moddy's Spanish rating
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EURUSD : 1.30944 / 1.30947
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3199 | 1.3160 | 1.3125
1.3064 | 1.3027 | 1.2992
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Moody’s confirms Spain’s government bond rating at Baa3 with the negative outlook yesterday and that drives market price towards to new levels. Market sentiment is clearly bullish. Main scenario: In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 1.3125 (R1). Appreciation above it might enable next targets at 1.3160 (R2) and 1.3199 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Our next support level holds at 1.3064 (S1). Price penetration below it might open way towards to next targets at 1.3027 (S2) and 1.2992 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61262 / 1.61266
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6192 | 1.6163 | 1.6135
1.6101 | 1.6074 | 1.6045
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market is waiting for Bank of England Minutes at 08:30 GMT. Technically, further market rise is more likely scenario for today while both moving averages are pointing up. Main scenario: If the price manages to progress above the next resistance at 1.6133 (R1) we suggest next targets at 1.6154 (R2) and 1.6177 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Next support level locates 1.6107 (S1) today, possible pushdown of the price below it would suggest next targets at 1.6085 (S2) and 1.6062 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.632 / 78.636
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.03 | 78.91 | 78.78
78.61 | 78.50 | 78.38
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: USDJPY still trades under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. Though, possibility of further market decline is high today as a part of correction development. Main scenario: We expect to see retest of our support at 78.61 (S1) today. Easing below it would suggest next targets at 78.50 (S2) and 78.38 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 78.78 (R1). Break above it might open initial targets at 78.91 (R2) and 79.03 (R3) in potential.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Learn Forex Trading | ECN Forex Online Trading | Forex Trading Tips | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 18 2012
China's Q3 GDP in line with estimates at 7.4%; Q3 print slightly better-than-expected
Chinese Real GDP for 3Q came as expected, printing 7.4% y/y growth - previously 7.6% y/y , hich had been the lowest reading since March 09. The Q3 seasonally adjusted number, however, came above expectations at 2.2% vs 1.8% consensus. While China's economy slows, data can be perceived as slightly better-than-expected, with QoQ numbers strengthening above cooling calls. Adds to signs China economy is bottoming. Ind Production came upbeat at 9.2% vs 9.0% exp, Fixed Investment better stood at 20.5% vs 20.2% expected, while retail sales were much better at 14.2 vs 13.2%.
Chinese Premier Wen noted that China's Q3 economic situation was 'relatively good' and that economic growth was stabilising. A better than expect GDP print will be positive for risk appetite, particularly given how far Chinese growth expectations have fallen over recent months. AUD, NZD and Asian currencies would push through recent highs on such an outcome.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-18 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales
2012-10-18 12:30 GMT | United States. Unemployment Claims
2012-10-18 14:00 GMT | United States. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
2012-10-18 | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-18 04:39 | GMT EUR/AUD dip stalls at 1.26 as Asia turns ‘risk on’
2012-10-18 01:38 | GMT AUD/JPY staying bid above 82.00
2012-10-18 00:36 | GMT EUR/JPY consolidates at 4-wk highs
2012-10-17 23:14 | GMT USD/JPY surges above 79.00
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EURUSD : 1.30964 / 1.30969
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3199 | 1.3163 | 1.3125
1.3064 | 1.3027 | 1.2992
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The pull back from yesterday’s high might be considered as price retracement from major uptrend formation. Pair is quoting roughly -0.17 % below its opening price and our short term outlook is negative today. Main scenario: Current downside formation is limited by next support level at 1.3064 (S1). Break here is required for further depreciation towards to our targets at 1.3027 (S2) and 1.2992 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: We see potential for further appreciation towards to next targets at 1.3163 (R2) and 1.3199 (R3) if it manage to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3125 (R1).
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GBPUSD : 1.61294 / 1.61303
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6172 | 1.6157 | 1.6142
1.6114 | 1.6099 | 1.6083
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC: Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: GBPUSD tested negative side today and we are not expecting major changes in current tendency. Not many macroeconomic data releases expected today however UK Retail Sales announcement at 08:30 GMT might bring additional volatility. Main scenario: Next support could be found at 1.6114 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 1.6099 (S2) and 1.6083 (S3). Alternative scenario: If the pair can breach our next resistance at 1.6142 (R1), we suggest next target at 1.6157 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 1.6172 (R3) intraday.
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USDJPY : 79.161 / 79.164
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.43 | 79.32 | 79.20
79.08 | 78.97 | 78.86
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: The pair is under the bullish pressure, as both of our Moving Averages are aggressive towards the price trading above it. Fresh high, formed today is our next reference point for further market appreciation. Main scenario: Key resistance is seen at 79.20 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 79.32 (R2) and 79.43 (R3). Alternative scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 79.08 (S1), break here might lead to the targets execution at 78.97 (S2) and 78.86 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Course | Forex Trading Blog | ECN Forex Trading Training | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Oct 19 2012
Framework for banking union by end of 2012
European Union leaders, according reports from Reuters, have agreed on a legal roadmap to establish a single bank supervisor for the union. A text of draft conclusions on the first day of talks in the ongoing EU summit in Brussels said leaders struck a deal on "the objective of completing the legal framework by the end of the year" with implementation "in the course of 2013", Reuters said. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn commented, cited by Reuters, that reaching such deal is key "to break the vicious circle between sovereigns and banks". Framework for banking union by end of 2012, completion by early 2014, and is to cover 6,000 banks, according to a French official.
They added that potential for direct bank recapitalization from bailout funds in 2013. However, the German counterparts have denied that bank recapitalization can take place in early 2013. From German government source cited by Reuters: "Direct recapitalization of banks in first qtr of 2013 is ‘very unlikely’. Can only begin once an effective single banking supervisor is in place. ECB will be responsible for systemically important banks, but will oversee other banks if necessary. There will be a mix of supervision between ECB and national supervisors." Frictions between Germany and France on how to go about the banking supervisor authority had been a troubling sticking point, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanding stronger authority to veto national budgets that breach EU rules, while French President Francois Hollande had been more supportive of moving towards a European banking union.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-19 06:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index
2012-10-19 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index
2012-10-19 14:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change
2012-10-19 N/A | E.M.U. European Council meeting
FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-19 02:57 GMT | GBP/JPY bears still defending 128.00 fig.
2012-10-19 01:54 GMT | GBP/USD bearish while below 1.6065
2012-10-19 00:30 GMT | AUD/USD has double failure above 1.04
2012-10-19 00:17 GMT | USD/JPY maintains positive bias, resistance at 79.65
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EURUSD : 1.30715 / 1.30719
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3133 | 1.3107 | 1.3084
1.3055 | 1.3031 | 1.3007
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Both moving averages are pointing down and we see potential of further depreciation later on today as main scenario though medium term tone remains positive. Main scenario: Next attractive support level locates at 1.3055 (S1). Break here is required to put in focus lower target at 1.3031 (S2) and 1.3007 (S3). Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.3084 (R1) would suggest higher targets at 1.3107 (R2) and 1.3133 (R3).
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GBPUSD : 1.60617 / 1.60625
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6112 | 1.6091 | 1.6072
1.6041 | 1.6021 | 1.6001
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday market depreciation has determined negative market sentiment for the trading session ahead.Main scenario: Downtrend resuming is possible below the next support level at 1.6041 (S1). Clearance of this level might expose next targets at 1.6021 (S2) and 1.6001 (S3) during the day. Alternative scenario: Next resistance level holds at 1.6072 (R1), break here would suggest next targets at 1.6091 (R2) and 1.6112 (R3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 79.299 / 79.303
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.66 | 79.53 | 79.41
79.25 | 79.13 | 79.00
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Upside formation remains in power on the medium term perspective however market looks overbought on the hourly chart and today we expect an attack to our support levels. Main scenario: Bearish penetration below the support level at 79.25 (S1) would then targeting 79.13 (S2) and 79.00 (S3) intraday. Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 79.41 (R1) would suggest next targets at 79.53 (R2) and 79.66 (R3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Hours | Forex Trading Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Tutorial | FXCC )