Market Overview by FXCC
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 05 2012
Spain full-blown bailout done deal - Nomura
Spain will need full-blown bailout which will include more active role of ECB in Spanish bond markets, says Nomura in a research note. The bank thinks capital flight from Spain is in a "category of its own," with massive outflows raising “serious concerns about the implications for banking sector stability and economic growth,” Nomura strategists Jens Nordvig and Charles St.-Arnaud write in client note. Interestingly, the following line via Bloomberg points at capital outflows on 3-month rolling basis at 50% of GDP vs Italy 15%; for comparison, Indonesia outflow during Asian crisis peaked at 23%.
The London session ahead will bring just few minor PMI figures from the EU in terms of EUR macro data related and EU retail sales. Spanish services PMI will be out at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italian services PMI, 5 minutes later by French one, another 5 minutes for German one, and finally another 5 minutes for the EU final services PMI at 07:58 GMT. EU retail sales are due at 09:00 GMT. At 13:00 GMT EU's Van Rompuy is expected to meet French PM Hollande so very probably some headlines will come that way.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-05 07:58 GMT | E. M.U. Markit Services PMI (Aug)
2012-09-05 08:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Aug)
2012-09-05 09:00 GMT | E. M.U Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-05 13:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-05 04:35 GMT | GBP/USD in tight range above 1.5850
2012-09-05 02:26 GMT | AUD/CAD: quick dip below 1.0050
2012-09-05 00:12 GMT | EUR/USD holds negative tone at Tokyo fix
2012-09-04 23:23 GMT | BoC, modest withdrawal of stimulus likely - Nomura
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EURUSD : 1.25340 / 1.25345
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2637 | 1.2598 | 1.2557
1.2517 | 1.2476 | 1.2432
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EURUSD broke our expected support level at 1.2594 and reached our target at 1.2557 yesterday. Intraday term bias remains negative below the next resistance at 1.2557 (R1). However, brake here would suggest about the market sentiment change to the bullish and we expect appreciation towards to 1.2598 (R2) and 1.2637 (R3) in such scenario. Risk of further easing is seen below the support at 1.2517 (S1), decline below it might expose next targets at 1.2476 (S2) and 1.2432 (S3) in potential. Today in focus are E.M.U. Markit Services PMI at 07:58 GMT and Retail Sales at 09:00 GMT.
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GBPUSD : 1.58620 / 1.58629
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5922 | 1.5899 | 1.5875
1.5855 | 1.5830 | 1.5804
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The pair has formed fresh low today at 1.5855 (S1), which is currently our next support level. Fall below it would suggest next targets at 1.5830 (S2) and 1.5804 (S3). Though, intraday Bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.5875 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.5899 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting 1.5922 (R3). Attention on the United Kingdom Markit Services PMI release at 08:28 GMT today.
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USDJPY : 78.413 / 78.417
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.92 | 78.73 | 78.54
78.17 | 77.98 | 77.80
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY appreciated yesterday and formed fresh high at 78.54 (R1), which is currently our next resistance level. Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.73 (R2). Brake here is required to enable last target for today at 78.92 (R3). Market decrease below the next important support level at 78.17 (S1) would suggest about the downtrend development with next target at 77.98 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.80 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 06 2012
EUR/USD steady above 1.26 ahead of one of most important days for the currency
The key risk event probably of the entire month in the form of ECB interest rate statement today at 11:45 GMT followed by the press conference 45 minutes later, where is expected the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker will attend the meeting. As reported by Laurence Norman and Todd Buell for WSJ: “In an unusual move, Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, announced he would attend Thursday's ECB governing council meeting. 'Mr. Juncker will present the Eurogroup's analysis of the economic and financial situation in the euro zone,' his spokesman said in an e-mail,” reads the report.
London session ahead will be as busy as it can get, with plenty of risk events going on. For EUR macro related data, France will start with the unemployment figures at 05:30 GMT, followed by the Netherland's CPI a 07:30 GMT, EU's revised 2Q GDP at 09:00 GMT along with Greece unemployment numbers, and Germany factory orders at 10:00 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-06 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q2) Preliminar
2012-09-06 11:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2012-09-06 11:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2012-09-06 12:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-06 04:33 GMT | GBP/USD quiet around 1.5900
2012-09-06 03:22 GMT | AUD/JPY bounces from 6-week lows
2012-09-06 03:04 GMT | EUR/CHF keeps moving higher
2012-09-06 01:44 GMT | AUD/USD finds double bottom; aiming at 1.0220
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EURUSD : 1.26056 / 1.26061
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2754 | 1.2697 | 1.2637
1.2570 | 1.2510 | 1.2450
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Yesterday, leaked details of the ECB’s bond intervention plan pushed EUR higher and our target at 1.2598 was met successfully. However our last target at 1.2637 (R1) remains untouched and currently is our next key resistance level. Market is waiting for official announcement from the ECB at 11:45 GMT and we expect volatility increase today. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2637 (R1) would enable next targets at 1.2697 (R2) and 1.2754 (R3). For the downside we suggest next support level at 1.2570 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual supports, located at 1.2510 (S2) and 1.2450 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD 1.59019 / 1.59028
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.5996 | 1.5968 | 1.5934
1.5884 | 1.5850 | 1.5815
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The key event for GBPUSD would be BoE Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT today. Next important technical resistance stay at 1.5934 (R1), brake here is required for market expansion towards to next target at 1.5968 (R2) and any further increase would then be limited by final resistance for today at 1.5996 (R3). Failure to go higher might push markets to retest our support at 1.5884 (S1). Brake here would suggest next target at 1.5850 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting to support at 1.5815 (S3). E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product Preliminar release is the next portion of data in focus at 09:00 GMT .
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USDJPY : 78.436 / 78.442
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.92 | 78.73 | 78.54
78.30 | 78.10 | 77.89
SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The neutral channel continues to pressure the pair from the both sides. Yesterday high at 78.54 (R1) and formed low at 78.30 (S1) currently is the next key levels. Break above the resistance at 78.54 (R1) would bring in focus next target at 78.73 (R2) and any further appreciation might face final resistance at 78.92 (R3). As long as the pair remains within the same price range, support at 78.30 (S1) is acting a protective level for the pair to plunge lower. Brake here would suggest next targets at 78.10 (S2) and 77.89 (S3) in potential.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Global Forex Trading | Forex Trading Charts | Best Forex Trading | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 07 2012
Market positioning for a stronger NFP reading - Westpac
Market positioning for US Aug non-farm payrolls is likely to be for a stronger reading than economists’ consensus of 130K, given the better ADP survey and also the non-manufacturing ISM, says Sean Callow, currency strategist at Westpac. The bank forecast is gloomier, "looking for 80K after the surprisingly firm 163K in July. The market range is 70-185K."
London session ahead will be focused on key data coming from the US at 12:30 GMT in the form of NFP. But earlier will come a bunch of other minor EUR related data, starting with German current account and trade balance at 06:00 GMT (all times GMT), followed by French trade balance 45 minutes later, Spanish industrial production at 07:00, the Netherlands industrial production half hour later, Greece final 2Q GDP at 09:00, and German industrial production and Portugal final 2Q GDP both at 10:00.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-07 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-07 12:00 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
2012-09-07 12:30 GMT | Canada. Net Change in Employment (Aug)
2012-09-07 14:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-07 04:40 GMT | EUR/USD ahead of US NFP above 1.26 around 5 year volatility lows
2012-09-07 04:32 GMT | GBP/USD upside favored – V.Bednarik
2012-09-07 03:35 GMT | AUD/USD at day highs; stops at 1.03 tripped
2012-09-07 03:19 GMT | Fitch warns Japan rating in danger to be downgraded
EURUSD : 1.26371 / 1.26376
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2741 | 1.2697 | 1.2654
1.2610 | 1.2566 | 1.2524
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
United States Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:00 GMT in focus today as major marked driver. Economist’s consensus is 130K. Hourly, instrument looks overbought and we expect some gradual easing below the next support level at 1.2610 (S1) later on today. Our suggested targets are 1.2566 (S2) and 1.2524 (S3). While next resistances is seen at 1.2654 (R1), clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our next targets at 1.2697 (R2) and 1.2741 (R3) later on today.
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GBPUSD : 1.59330 / 1.59340
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6003 | 1.5975 | 1.5943
1.5917 | 1.5889 | 1.5860
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD bounced on the Mario Draghi’s commentary yesterday. Next portion of macroeconomic data release from UK is expected today at 08:30 GMT - Manufacturing Production. Our main scenario remains unchanged, GBPUSD at the moment deviate from its up-trend on the short term timeframe. Next resistance is maintained at 1.5943 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.5975 (R2) and 1.6003 (R3) in potential. However on the medium term, market is overbought and correction is possible from current levels. Decrease below the support at 1.5917 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.5889 (S2) and 1.5860 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.927 / 78.930
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.42 | 79.22 | 79.03
78.77 | 78.58 | 78.38
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The USD rose yesterday versus the JPY, turning hourly sentiment to the positive territory and exposed our final target at 78.92. Next resistance ahead at is placed at yesterday high- 79.03 (R1), brake here is required to open way for further appreciation towards to 79.22 (R2) and 79.42 (R3). On the downturn, price decline below the next support levels at 78.77 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 78.58 (S2). A break below it would suggest last target for today at 78.38 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Automatic forex trading | Learning Forex Trading | ECN Forex Trading Signal | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 10 2012
If QE3 happens, may mark the end of USD weakness - Standard Chartered
Following the downbeat US NFP data, which for the majority of market participants paves the way for the next round of easing by the Fed being announced as soon as this week, there is other entities, like Standard Chartered, which remain more skeptical on getting too excited on this prospects. According to analysts in the bank, "we do not think US August payroll data means QE3 is a done deal in September." The bank also adds, "if QE3 happens, it actually may mark the end, not the beginning, of USD weakness." Standard Chartered remains underweight EUR, "supported by the view this week’s FOMC will disappoint" the bank notes.
London session ahead will be a middle soft one in regards of EUR macro data related, though could become into a volatile day anyways with the Troika heading to Greece, and PM Samaras expected to meet ECB tomorrow. First will come French business sentiment at 06:30 GMT, followed 15 minutes later by French industrial production, EU Sentix indicator at 08:30 GMT, and Greek CPI. In the EZ sovereign debt auctions front Germany will sell up to € 4B in 6 month bills at 06:00 GMT, with risk premium to Spanish bonds narrowing last at 413bps, at multi-week lows.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-10 06:00 GMT | Japan. Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Aug)
2012-09-10 08:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Sep)
2012-09-10 19:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Credit Change (Jul)
2012-09-10 22:45 GMT | New Zealand. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-10 04:47 GMT | GBP/USD: upside remains favored – V.Bednarik
2012-09-10 04:23 GMT | EUR/USD stable below 1.2800
2012-09-10 02:04 GMT | USD/JPY holds scope for more slides – V.Bednarik
2012-09-10 00:43 GMT | AUD/USD range bound above 1.0350
EURUSD : 1.27833 / 1.27839
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2920 | 1.2870 | 1.2817
1.2754 | 1.2700 | 1.2652
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
After the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change release on Friday, EURUSD climbed above the suggested target at 1.2741 and closed US session on the positive tone. Next resistance level for today locates at Friday’s High - 1.2817 (R1). Rise above it might lead to the further trend development with next possible targets at 1.2870 (R2) and 1.2920 (R3). Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.2754 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next support at 1.2700 (S2), decrease below it would suggest support at 1.2652 (S3) as final target for today.
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GBPUSD : 1.59938 / 1.59945
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6103 | 1.6069 | 1.6034
1.5976 | 1.5942 | 1.5909
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD met our target at 1.6003 on the Friday move and settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe. Next resistance ahead, preventing further appreciation, is seen at 1.6034 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6069 (R2) and 1.6103 (R3) in potential. On the other point, if the market manage to brake next support level at 1.5976 (S1), we might see pull back development with possible targets at 1.5942 (S2) and 1.5909 (S3) later on today.
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USDJPY : 78.224 / 78.228
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.74 | 78.54 | 78.36
78.01 | 77.81 | 77.62
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Pair formed fresh low on Friday’s move and now deviate from its initial downtrend formation. Next resistance level lie at 78.36 (R1), clearance here might provide space for pair strengthening towards to next expected target at 78.54 (R2). Brake here is required to enable final target at 78.74 (R3). Risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 78.01 (S1). Price progress below it might expose targets at 77.81 (S2) and 77.62 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading For Beginners | Automated Forex Trading Systems | Forex Automated Trading | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 11 2012
EUR/USD rally a bluff until Spain bailout request?
Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy affirmed on Monday, in a RTVE Spanish TV interview, that his team is "studying bailout conditions." On the contrary, he also said he will refuse outside conditions over a possible bailout, a contradictory statement that sooner or later will see the harsh reality slashing in his face, Either in coming weeks/monhts.
London session ahead will be a soft one again in terms of EUR macro data related, with only some French jobs data at 05:30 GMT, followed by German whole price index 30 minutes later, and Dutch trade balance at 07:30 GMT. No major EZ sovereign debt auction either taking place but some Dutch bond selling at 08:00 GMT
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-11 08:30 GMT United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Jul)
2012-09-11 12:00 GMT United States. Trade Balance (Jul)
2012-09-11 17:00 GMT United States. 3-Year Note Auction
2012-09-11 23:50 GMT Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Jul)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-11 04:47 GMT EUR/USD capped below 1.2800
2012-09-11 04:31 GMT GBP/USD bid above 1.6000
2012-09-11 04:48 GMT AUD to underperform – UBS
2012-09-10 23:20 GMT AUD/USD within tight range around 1.0330
EURUSD : 1.27699 / 1.27702
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.2920 | 1.2870 | 1.2817
1.2754 | 1.2700 | 1.2652
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Despite the consolidation provided yesterday, EURUSD still under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. All of our supports and resistance levels remain at the same levels. Brake above the resistance at 1.2817 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2870 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to 1.2920 (R3). However break below the support at 1.2754 (S1) might provide necessary space for further retracement development. We suggest next target at 1.2700 (S2), brake here is required to enable final target at 1.2652 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.60091 / 1.60098
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6103 | 1.6069 | 1.6034
1.5976 | 1.5942 | 1.5909
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Pair dropped below the suggested support level at 1.5976 but failed to establish significant move. We expect a new attack for that level today. Decline below the support level at 1.5976 (S1) would suggest next target at 1.5942 (S2), further easing might face last support for today at 1.5909 (S3). If the price manages to stay above the suggested support at 1.5976 (S1), we expect market to retest our next resistance level at 1.6034 (R1). Clearance here is required for the instrument strengthening towards to our targets at 1.6069 (R2) and 1.6103 (R3) in potential. In focus is the Goods Trade Balance (Jul) release at 08:30 GMT.
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USDJPY : 78.218 / 78.223
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.74 | 78.54 | 78.36
78.01 | 77.81 | 77.62
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however Japan Machinery Orders (release at 23:50 GMT might assist to the trend development. Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 78.36 (R1), brake here would suggest next target at 78.54 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 78.74 (R3). Fresh low is acting as support level for the pair at 78.01 (S1). Loss here might drive market price towards to our next target at 77.81 (S2) and any further easing would then be focus on last support at 77.62 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 12 2012
Consensus ESM approved: Will it come with conditions?
“Market consensus for tomorrow's Constitutional Court judgement is overwhelmingly that the Constitutional Court will not block ESM and the Fiscal Pact: 99% of respondents in our Investor poll this week subscribe to this view.” According to a Reuters poll of 20 legal experts, there is unanimous consensus the soon-to-be-established ESM will be approved but with strings as the wildcard. Strings could mean a German limit on contributions, making a case for euro shorts ahead of the court decision, due at 0800 GMT today.
London session ahead will be very busy as the common currency faces one of most important days ahead for its future. There are plenty of risk events in the coming hours, that will presumable pick volatility up. For starters in terms of macro data EUR related France will release CPI figures for Aug at 05:30 GMT, followed by German CPI 30 minutes later, and French current account at 06:45 GMT. Spain CPI will be out at 07:00 GMT, followed by Italian industrial production 1 hour later, and EU industrial production along with Portugal CPI another hour after.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-12 06:00 GMT | Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Aug)
2012-09-12 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Claimant Count Change (Aug)
2012-09-12 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-12 21:00 GMT | New Zealand. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-12 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD above 1.2850 ahead of a crucial day for the common currency
2012-09-12 03:30 GMT | NZD/USD rally hits 0.8200, highest in 5 weeks
2012-09-12 02:45 GMT | AUD/JPY approaching 50% Fibo res.
2012-09-12 01:54 GMT | USD/JPY rising back toward 78.00 as Asia turns ‘risk-on’
EURUSD : 1.28724 / 1.28727
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3018 | 1.2952 | 1.2885
1.2837 | 1.2767 | 1.2701
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Constitutional court expected to give its preliminary ruling on the ESM and the fiscal compact today, this would be the major market driver for the currency. Our target at 1.2870 was met yesterday and market closed on a positive note. Fresh high, formed today at 1.2885 (R1) is a next attractive point for the uptrend penetration. If a brake occur here we suggest gradual targets to be placed at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.3018 (R3). Next upcoming support holds at 1.2837 (S1), a consolidation development below it might take the pair towards to eventual supports located at 1.2767 (S2) and 1.2701 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.60766 / 1.60774
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6186 | 1.6136 | 1.6085
1.6051 | 1.5997 | 1.5940
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Cable managed to advance above the suggested resistance level at 1.6034 and printed a fresh high during the European session at 1.6085 (R1), which is our next resistance level for today. Rise above it might keep the bearish pressure intact and expose next targets at 1.6136 (R2) and 1.6186 (R3) later on today. We placed our next support level below the both moving averages at 1.6051 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and downgrade Cable towards to expected targets at 1.5997 (S2) and 1.5940 (S3). United Kingdom Claimant Count Change at 08:30 GMT is the next data release in focus.
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USDJPY : 77.884 / 77.889
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.33 | 78.17 | 78.01
77.69 | 77.51 | 77.33
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY gained momentum yesterday and reached our downside target at 77.81. A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.01 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.17 (R2) and 78.33 (R3). Conversely, next support level stays right below the fresh low, provided yesterday at 77.69 (S1). Brake here would suggest next target at 77.51 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 77.33 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Software | ECN Forex News Trading | Forex Options Trading | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 13 2012
QE3 done deal or coinflip?
An overwhelming majority, as reflected by recent USD selling, sees it obvious that the economy in the US is weak, and with Bernanke reminding how well past QEs have worked in his speech at Jackson Hole, not to forget the last straw being the big miss in last Friday's NFP reports, talking about a fresh wave of money printing announced today seems logical. On the other hand, there is a case that points towards 'disappointment' being a prospect not that distant. With Europe having kicked the can down the road yet again thru new stimulus policies by the ECB – subject to Spain bailout request and the economic data in the US modestly upbeat in general in early September, one may also make the case for another month of 'wait-and-see” by the Fed. Not to forget is election time in the US, and any new 'money printing' may be controversial.
London session ahead will be a quite one data related waiting for the key event for the day in the form of FOMC Fed fund rates at 16:30 GMT. During the European hours, few major risk events will be coming from Switzerland, so some volatility could be expected around EUR/CHF cross given latest moves, while for EUR macro data related the EU will publish ECB monthly bulletin at 08:00 GMT at the same time than Italy CPI, followed 1 hour later by EU labor costs index.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-13 07:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2012-09-13 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monthly Report
2012-09-13 18:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2012-09-13 16:30 GMT | United States. Fed Interest Rate Decision
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-13 04:34 GMT | GBP/USD moving sideways above 1.61
2012-09-13 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD threatening recent 4-month highs
2012-09-13 01:16 GMT | EUR/AUD prints “Pin,” set for bullish continuation?
2012-09-13 00:54 GMT | Potential for further USDJPY selling post FOMC - UBS
EURUSD : 1.29249 / 1.29254
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3086 | 1.3018 | 1.2952
1.2876 | 1.2817 | 1.2748
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Following the German ratification of the ESM, EURUSD bounced though closed trading session on the positive tone. The Focus will now shift to Thursday's FOMC meeting at 18:15 GMT. Currently pair is moving towards to our next resistance level at 1.2952 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3018 (R2) and 1.3086 (R3). The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 1.2876 (S1), brake here might lead to the next targets execution at 1.2817 (S2) and 1.2748 (S3).
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GBPUSD : 1.61173 / 1.61182
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6235 | 1.6186 | 1.6136
1.6079 | 1.6035 | 1.5985
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Pair has settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe but recently looks overbought. From the technical side, upside pressure might force the market to test next resistance level at 1.6136 (R1). Successful penetration above it might provide sufficient space for the price increase towards to our next targets at 1.6186 (R2) and 1.6235 (R3). On the flip side, depreciation below the support level at 1.6079 (S1) would enable our targets at 1.6035 (S2) and 1.5985 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 77.717 / 77.721
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.17 | 78.01 | 77.86
77.69 | 77.51 | 77.33
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Current installation might suggest us about the bearish market sentiment. Morning decline below the key support level at 77.69 (S1) might open the road towards to lower targets, located at the same levels as yesterday for the downside penetration: 77.51 (S2) and 77.33 (S3).A move above the resistance level at 77.86 (R1) might drive price towards to the next target at 78.01 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 78.17 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Practice Account | ECN Broker | ECN Forex | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 14 2012
On USD/JPY intervention watch today - Westpac
According to Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac: "Some support came from NY traders telling news wires that the Bank of Japan had checked prices. We also heard an anonymous Japanese govt official deeming post-FOMC yen moves to be 'very excessive, speculative'." Westpac are very much on Intervention watch today.
London session ahead will bring EU CPI and employment figures, along with Italy current account at 09:00 GMT, with no more EUR/USD macro data related for the day till the NY session time, when before it opens, US CPI and retail sales are expected at 12:30 GMT. No sovereign debt auction in the euro zone as usual for Fridays. Monthly currency options expire during the weekend.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14092012/
UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-14 09:00 GMT E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2012-09-14 12:30 GMT United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
2012-09-14 13:15 GMT United States. Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
2012-09-14 13:55 GMT United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep) Preliminar
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-14 04:36 GMT EUR/USD above 1.30 ahead of ECOFIN
2012-09-14 02:39 GMT AUD/JPY hits 82.00
2012-09-14 01:56 GMT AUD/USD breaks NY highs; targeting 1.0615
2012-09-13 23:23 GMT USD/JPY: BoJ eyeing 77.00 – V.Bednarik
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EURUSD : 1.30259 / 1.30262
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3267 | 1.3179 | 1.3086
1.2959 | 1.2874 | 1.2789
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The European Council meeting today might bring additional volatility to the markets. We expect that EURUSD decline today however medium term bias remains positive. Uptrend development might face next resistance level at 1.3086 (R1). Brake here is essential for the bullish market participants with next targets in focus at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3267 (R3). On the downturn, a consolidation might take the pair towards to eventual supports located at 1.2959 (S1), 1.2874 (S2) and 1.2789 (S3). Consumer Price Index release at 09:00 GMT is the next macroeconomic data in focus.
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GBPUSD : 1.61997 / 1.62006
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6347 | 1.6289 | 1.6235
1.6164 | 1.6106 | 1.6048
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD gained momentum and maintained uptrend development. Currently pair trades at the day high and we see potential for further appreciation towards to next resistance at 1.6235 (R1). Brake here would suggest next targets at 1.6289 (R2) and 1.6347 (R3). Though, our short –term outlook is negative and easing towards to our next support level at 1.6164 (S1) is possible. Clear break here is required for further depreciation with next intraday targets at 1.6106 (S2) and 1.6048 (S3) in potential.
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USDJPY : 77.636 / 77.642
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.09 | 77.92 | 77.74
77.51 | 77.35 | 77.17
SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY eased yesterday below the suggested support level at 77.69 and managed to reach our final target at 77.33. Market sentiment is bearish and brake below the support at 77.51 (S1) would suggest next target at 77.35 (S2). Price level at 77.17 (S3) is acting as final support level for the pair today. On the other hand, If the market manage to climb above the resistance level at 77.74 (R1) we expect next target to be achieved at 77.92 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 78.09 (R3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Brokers | ECN Forex Brokers | ECN Trading | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 17 2012
China forecasts adjusted lower; rate cutting cycle over - Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered has just published a note to clients revising the 2012 and 2013 forecasts GDP for China, now looking at 7.8% growth in 2013, and a better H2 than H1; "We lower our GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively (from 8.1% and 8.7%), expecting clearer signs of the start of a moderate recovery to emerge in Q4-2012 and early 2013." Furthermore, they, now believe "the interest rate cutting cycle has ended and expect the next move to be up, in late 2013." Looking at the CNY, the bank thinks "it should remain stable against the USD in 2012, but appreciate mildly as the trade surplus revives in 2013-14." Standard Chartered forecasts USD-CNY at 6.19 at end-2013, 6.00 at end-2014.
Not many macro economic data EUR related will be released during London session ahead, starting with EU current account and Italian trade balance at 08:00 GMT, followed by EU labor costs 1 hour later. In the EZ sovereign debt front France will auction some short term maturities, while headlines coming from Greece or Spain could be making headlines any time during the session.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-17 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Current Account s.a (Jul)
2012-09-17 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance s.a. (Jul)
2012-09-17 12:30 GMT | Canada. Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jul)
2012-09-17 12:30 GMT | United States. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-17 04:37 GMT | EUR/USD unchanged above 1.31
2012-09-17 04:09 GMT | AUD/USD bias bearish - NAB
2012-09-17 02:16 GMT | GBP/JPY pulls back below 127.00
2012-09-17 01:53 GMT | Rebound in USD/JPY favoured - TDS
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EURUSD : 1.31301 / 1.31307
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3355 | 1.3267 | 1.3179
1.3085 | 1.2995 | 1.2903
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Last week was totally positive for EUR. After the FOMC has announced unlimited purchases of MBS (Mortgage-backed Securities) at a pace of $40 billion per month and QE3 announcement, EURUSD rose to the new highs. Today we expect slow trading session ahead. Our next resistance level is placed above the fresh high at 1.3179 (R1), violation here might expose next targets at 1.3267 (R2) and 1.3355 (R3) if the uptrend remains in power. Correction is possible below the next support level, placed at 1.3085 (S1). Further decline below it might test next targets at 1.2995 (S2) and 1.2903 (S3) in potential.
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GBPUSD : 1.62260 / 1.62271
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6347 | 1.6301 | 1.6255
1.6195 | 1.6145 | 1.6096
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
GBPUSD currently deviates from its initial uptrend formation and we expect low volatility today. If the pair can breach the key resistance at 1.6255 (R1), we suggest next targets at 1.6301 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 1.6347 (R3) intraday. From the other side, loss of next support at 1.6195 (S1) might encourage executing of protective orders and drive market price towards to the next targets at 1.6145 (S2) and 1.6096 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.299 / 78.302
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
78.81 | 78.64 | 78.47
78.14 | 77.96 | 77.78
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Market stabilized after the Friday’s gains and we expect further consolidation development later on today as main scenario. Next support could be found at 78.14 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 77.96 (S2) and 77.78 (S3). From the other side, if the pair manages to overcome the 78.47 (R1) level, we might see further appreciation towards to next targets at 78.64 (R2) and 78.81 (R3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Platform | Forex Broker Reviews | Online Forex Broker | FXCC )
Market Overview by FXCC Sep 18 2012
RBA minutes - Bias still to the downside
The RBA's minutes for this month's 4 Sep meeting is out, with plenty of downbeat commentary regarding the worsening outlook for Australia due to global and Chinese growth concerns, acknowledging prospects are now more uncertain. RBA added there is still scope to reduce the benchmark interest rate should outlook worsen significantly. The extent of RBA concern surrounding China appears to have worsened, while the potential for an October rate cut is very much on the cards. According to RBA, previous rate cuts are still working through economy.
London session ahead will only have a single risk event for the European morning coming out EUR related, but a key one, as German ZEW economic sentiment is, due at 09:00 GMT, which usually implies volatility. The UK will publish CPI figures at 08:30 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-18 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (Aug)
2012-09-18 09:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Sep)
2012-09-18 12:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Evans Speech
2012-09-18 12:30 GMT | United States. Current Account (Q2)
FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-18 04:39 GMT | GBP/USD flat around 1.6245 ahead of UK CPI data
2012-09-18 04:35 GMT | EUR/USD awaits ZEW around 1.31
2012-09-18 03:59 GMT | USD/JPY stalls below 79.00 ahead of BoJ
2012-09-18 04:14 GMT | NZD/USD gently bid above 0.8250
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EURUSD : 1.31018 / 1.31021
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.3355 | 1.3267 | 1.3179
1.3085 | 1.2995 | 1.2903
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
EURUSD remains under the sideways direction and we leave all ours support and resistance at the same levels as yesterday. Upside direction is limited by the next resistance level at 1.3179 (R1), brake here would enable higher target at 1.3267 (R2). Sufficient momentum on the upside direction might expose last target at 1.3355 (R3) in potential. On the downturn, clear brake of support level at 1.3085 (S1) would enable target at 1.2995 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support level at 1.2903 (S3). In focus the Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment release at 09:00 GMT.
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GBPUSD : 1.62435 / 1.62444
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
1.6392 | 1.6347 | 1.6301
1.6212 | 1.6165 | 1.6119
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
BOE Inflation Letter might be a major market driver today for GBP however next important data release expected at 08:30 GMT - Core Consumer Price Index (Aug). GBPUSD penetrated above the suggested resistance level at 1.6255 yesterday but failed to establish positive tone. A further increase will then bring focus to the next resistance levels at 1.6301 (R1) and 1.6347 (R2). Final resistance can be found at 1.6392 (R3) level later on today. Next support level holds at 1.6212 (S1), brake below it would suggest next target at 1.6165 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to 1.6119 (S3).
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USDJPY : 78.648 / 78.654
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY
79.42 | 79.16 | 78.92
78.47 | 78.21 | 77.95
SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY climbed yesterday above the suggested resistance level at 78.47 and hit our target at 78.81. Next resistance is spotted at 78.92 (R1), brake here might expose next target at 79.16 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 79.42 (R3). Our now bullish short term outlook will remain in place while USDJPY trades above the support at 78.47 (S1). A downside move below it might retest our next targets at 78.21 (S2) and 77.95 (S3) in potential.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading| Forex Rates | Forex Market | FXCC )