Forex Daily Analysis
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Dollar slips broadly across the borders, euro up on successful Portuguese auction and strong German Industrial Production figures
The dollar started to slip against major currencies, after easing oil prices had helped the currency recover some of its recent lost ground. The euro was up 0.13% against the dollar, trading at 1.3926 USD, after heavy selling in the last days pushed the currency as low as 1.3853 USD. The euro was also supported by stronger than expected German Industrial Production figures. The total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities rose in January on a monthly rate by 1.8%, above forecast of 1.7%, and following a shrink of 0.6% in December. After reaching a four-month high on 1.4031 USD on Monday, the single currency has started to be pushed down by increasing concerns about euro zone sovereign problems. The currency had been supported by hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) comments, President Trichet stating that the central bank might increase rates as soon as next month. But now markets fear that a rate hike might not be appropriate in the case of all European countries, as some are still confronting serious debt problems. Also, easing oil prices have helped the dollar recover lost ground in front of other major currencies and made it harder for the euro to resist over a longer period above the 1.40 USD level. The market is waiting for signs of clear solutions to tackle the euro zone debt problems starting with Friday EU summit that should bring the long-awaited agreement on a pact to tackle future debt problems. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.23%, at 76.62, from highs of 76.97. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell to 82.62 JPY from a high of 82.94 JPY, but was still up 0.01%. The British pound steadied against the dollar around 1.6150 USD in Asian trading to start gaining ground once European markets were open. Better than expected UK trade balance figures on January helped the currency to climb as high as 1.6243 USD. Against the Swiss franc, both the dollar and the euro erased some of their earlier gains. The dollar fell to 0.9269 CHF, down 0.85%, while the euro slipped 0.64% to 1.2910 CHF. The Australian dollar managed to erase Tuesday’s losses, as the dollar started to slip significantly across the bord. The Aussie was up 0.23%, buying 1.0125 USD.
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Euro recovers from Spain rating cut, dollar up on weak China trade data
The euro was recovering after dipping on Spain’s rating cut that emphasized euro zone debt problems lately in focus, while the dollar gained support on easing oil prices and weak Chinese trade data. Rating agency Moody’s cut Spain’s rating from Aa1 to Aa2 with a negative outlook and warned that the country might face other rating cuts. The yield gap between Spain bond yields on 10 years and the German Bunds enlarged with nine basis points to 232 basis points. The euro fell to this week’s low of 1.3802 USD and later recovered some of the lost ground to buy 1.3839 USD, still down 0.46%. It was also this week, on Monday, that the euro climbed to its four-month high, of 1.4031 USD, on ECB Trichet comments. European Central Bank (ECB) President, Jean-Claude Trichet, said at the end of the latest monetary policy meeting that the central bank might raise interest rates as soon as in April. But the euro didn’t manage to stay too long above the 1.40 USD level, as markets refocused their attention on euro zone sovereign debt problems, ahead of an EU summit on Friday that should put the grounds for a long-term solution. Oil prices have eased in the last hours, supporting the dollar to recover some ground against major currencies. Also, worse-than-expected trade data coming from China lifted the greenback. The dollar index was at 77.04, up 0.41%, after reaching a high of 77.14. The Australian dollar slipped on China data and was trading at 1.0031 USD, down 0.7%, after hitting a low of 1.0019 USD. The New Zealand dollar also dipped and bought only 0.7339 USD, down 0.37%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar climbed to 82.95 JPY, up 0.22%, while versus its Canadian counterpart the US dollar reached a high of 0.9710 CAD, up 0.17%.
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The dollar was gaining ground against major currencies, after the euro was kicked by Spain’s rating cut, easing oil pricesalso helping the currency. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was at 77.17, up 0.59%. Oil prices have eased in the last hours, supporting the dollar to recover some ground against major currencies. The dollar was up against an euro weakened by returning concerns about the euro zone debt problems. Rating agency Moody’s cut Spain’s rating from Aa1 to Aa2 with a negative outlook and warned that the country might face other rating cuts. The yield gap between Spain bond yields on 10 years and the German Bunds enlarged with nine basis points to 232 basis points. The euro fell to this week’s low of 1.3802 USD and, after a short rebound, was back around 1.3815 USD levels, down 0.65%. It was also this week, on Monday, that the euro climbed to its four-month high, of 1.4031 USD, on ECB Trichet comments. European Central Bank (ECB) President, Jean-Claude Trichet, said at the end of the latest monetary policy meeting that the central bank might raise interest rates as soon as in April. But the euro didn’t manage to stay too long above the 1.40 USD level, as markets refocused their attention on euro zone sovereign debt problems, ahead of an EU summit on Friday that should put the grounds for a long-term solution. Now analysts are saying that, if the markets start to price in a possible delay of a rate hike due to euro zone countries that are still struggling to recover, the euro will be hurt. Higher yields, especially in the case of Portugal, back on focus as European leaders are waiting for new austerity measures to tackle its crisis, didn’t help the currency either. Fiscal problems should remain the centre of attention in the following weeks, as Friday’s summit is followed by a series of meetings on the same topic. Also, worse-than-expected trade data coming from China lifted the greenback. China’s trade deficit widened to 7.3 billion dollars, the largest in seven years, as the Lunar New Year holiday shrank the exports above forecasts. The Australian dollar slipped on China data and was trading at 1.0019 USD, down 0.82%, after hitting a low of 1.0012 USD. The kiwi also dipped and bought only 0.7348 USD, down 0.24%, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its key cash rate by half a percentage point on Thursday, to 2.5%, to give a push to an economy rocked by two large earthquakes in less than six months. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar climbed to a high of 83.17 JPY, to trade later at 83.03 JPY, up 0.34%, while versus its Canadian counterpart the US dollar reached a high of 0.9720 CAD, up 0.37%. Pound down after BoE keeps rates unchanged The British pound fell against the dollar after the Bank of England (BoE) announced its monetary policy decision, to leave interest rates unchanged. BoE decided to keep the bank rate, paid on commercial bank reserves, at a record low of 0.5%, unchanged since March 2009. Also, the central bank made no changes to its 200 billion pound programme of asset purchases. The British pound was buying 1.6135 USD, down 0.4%, after it had approached the 1.62 USD level before the decision was announced. The decision was in line with markets’expectations, but analysts are forecasting a rate hike until May, as mounting prices put pressure on inflation, so Thursday meeting’s minutes, to be puclished on March 23, will be closely watched by analysts. Although analysts are saying that the central bank wants to support an uncertain economic recovery, data published earlier on Thursday came out positive. Industrial production rose 0.5% in January, while manufacturing output saw a 1% rise, according to the Office for National Statistics, both above market's expectations.
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Euro slips against a stronger dollar, yen recovers after stron Japan quake The euro was down against the dollar ahead of a euro zone leaders meeting, as concerns about debt problems have returned, while the Japanese yen was climbing against major currencies on expectations of high repatriation flows to repair damages after a huge earthquake hit Japan. The euro was down against the dollar, trading at 1.3770 USD, down 0.19%, after hitting a low of 1.3750 USD. The single currency gained ground in early European trading to reach a high of 1.3842 USD, but hit resistance and fell back below 1.38 USD. The markets are waiting for signals of how to tackle the debt crisis coming from a euro zone leaders meeting on Friday ahead of a full EU summit at the end of the month. After a short bounce of confidence given by hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) chief, Jean-Claude Trichet, concerns about debt problems have returned and put pressure on the single currency. Greece and Spain’s ratings were both slashed by rating agency Moody’s, refocusing markets attention on the debt crisis and raising doubts whether ECB will be able to increase interest rates next month without hurting its weaker countries. The British pound fell against the dollar to a low of 1.5978 USD and was later buying 1.5989 USD, down 0.41%, after a steady first part of the trading day in the 1.6050–1.6075 interval. Bank of England (BoE) Thursday decision to keep interest rates at record lows of 0.5% was in line with market’s expectations, but weighed on the currency as investors are waiting for signals of a rate hike. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.1%, at 77.35. The Australian dollar was down 0.2%, at 0.9987 USD after disappointing job figures that showed a net loss in jobs of 10,100.
Yen recovering after huge earthquake hit Japan The yen recovered against the dollar after a huge earthquake of 8.9 on the Richter scale that hit Japan lead the currency to its two-week low. The dollar had climbed to a high of 83.29 JPY, but flows repatriation that could follow to pay for damage repairs supported the yen. The dollar fell shortly after and it bought only 82.05 JPY, down almost 1%, before rebounding to around 82.30 JPY. The euro fell to 112.90 JPY, after it had reached a high of 115.01 JPY earlier. The single currency was recovering afterwards to trade at 113.39 JPY, still down 0.87%. In spite of the rebound, the future of the currency is still shaky, taking into consideration that the earthquakes’ impact on the economy is not yet known.
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Dollar up on risk aversion, yen steadies after skyrocketing The euro was still slipping against a dollar supported by increasing risk aversion, after a short rebounce, while the Japanese yen steadied after skyrocketing on expectations of high repatriation flows to repair damages after a huge earthquake hit Japan. The euro fell broadly against the dollar to 1.3750 USD after it had reached a high of 1.3841 USD. The euro bounced up though from lows and traded close to 1.38 USD, but it failed to provide enough steam for the single currency to break the level and started to lose ground again at the American trading session opening. The markets are waiting for the results of a euro zone leaders meeting on Friday that should set the grounds for a pact for competitiveness ahead of a full EU summit at the end of the month. Germany has the biggest role, as the main creditor for the region, and it wants countries to enshrine in their national law rules that they won’t exceed limits of a budget deficit of 3% of GDP and of a debt of 60% of GDP. Portugal is in the center of attention and under continuous pressure to announce new reforms, after sovereign bond yields have reached record highs. The strengthening of the euro zone rescue fund (EFSF) will be discussed at the bigger EU summit so investors don’t expect major announcement at the end of today. The euro has suffered on returning debt concerns as Greece and Spain’s ratings were both slashed, after a bounce of confidence had been given by European Central Bank (ECB) chief, Jean-Claude Trichet, saying that the central bank might raise interest rates in April. The news has raised doubts whether ECB will be able to increase interest rates next month without hurting its weaker countries, so next days are crucial to establish a trend for the currency. The dollar was supported by increasing risk aversion, leading the US dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, up 0.9%, at 77.34. The British pound was down at 1.5978 USD, after falling as low as 1.5975 USD. The Bank of England (BoE) Thursday decision to keep interest rates at record lows of 0.5% was in line with market’s expectations, but weighed on the currency as investors are waiting for signals of a rate hike. Yen steady after skyrocketing on huge earthquake that hit Japan The yen was steady against the dollar and the euro after a broad climb due to flows repatriation expectation to repair damages of a huge earthquake of 8.9 on the Richter scale that hit. The dollar had climbed initially to a high of 83.29 JPY, but steadied at 82.25 JPY, down 0.82%, after falling as low as 82.05 JPY. The euro fell to 112.90 JPY, after it had reached a high of 115.01 JPY earlier. The single currency steadied later around the 113.25 JPY level, down 1%. In spite of the rebound, the future of the currency is still shaky, taking into consideration that the earthquakes’ impact on the economy is not yet known. Canadian dollar down after weak employment data The Canadian dollar slipped against the dollar after data showed the economy created only 15,100 new jobs in February, far below expectations and the previous month data, while the unemployment rate stood unchanged at 7.8%. The US dollar hit a high of 0.9790 CAD after the data was released, but was slowly losing ground after to buy 0.9771 CAD, still up 0.17%. Analysts were expecting the Canadian economy to add 23,500 jobs in February after the positive figures from January, of 69,200 added jobs. Also, the forecasts were showing an unemployment rate of 7.7%, from 7.8% the previous month.
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Yen up on BoJ economic support measures, euro boosted The Japanese yen slipped on a series of policy easing measures to strengthen the economy after a huge earthquake and tsunami hit the country, while the euro gained ground on euro zone rescue fund boost. The dollar hit a high of 82.43 JPY, still below the trading levels before the earthquake, and steadied around the 82 JPY level, up 0.19%. It was trading at lows of 81.23 JPY before the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision. BOJ doubled its asset buying scheme to 10 trillion yen and supplied record funds to banks on Monday to shore up confidence. A massive earthquake of 9 degrees on Richter scale followed by a huge tsunami hit Japan on Friday, the authorities estimating that the death toll might climb to 10.000 people. The Japanese yen initially reacted on the disaster by gaining ground against all currencies, as markets were expecting big repatriation flows to support the recovery. The euro was up against the dollar close to 1.40 USD after euro zone leaders decided to strengthen euro zone rescue fund.
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Euro boosted by EU deal, yen eases on stimulus package
The euro was up against the dollar, just below the 1.40 USD level, after euro zone leaders agreed on negociations to extend the rescue fund lending capacity and improve Greece borrowing terms, while the Japanese yen was slowly recovering ground after BoJ stimulus package hit the currency. Euro zone leaders announced on Sunday that they reached an agreement for extending the lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), euro zone rescue fund, to its maximum level. Although the size of the rescue fund has been 440 billion euro, the EFSF was able to use only 250 billion euro for it not to lose its triple-A rating. Also, euro zone leaders agreed to curb borrowing costs for Greece as the government struggles to manage its public finance. Peripheric bond yields have decreased significantly and stock markets went up following the news. Only in the case of Ireland, which didn’t accept the condition of agreeing with a common corporate tax rate, the borrowing costs decreased less. The euro rallied to approach the 1.40 USD level and was trading steady around the 1.3950 USD during American trading session first hour. The dollar was up though against the yen, which lost ground once the Bank of Japan announced a stimulus package to support the economy, after a huge earthquake of 9 degrees on Richter scale and a tsunami hit the country on Friday, killing 10.000 people according to estimations. The BOJ doubled its asset buying scheme to 10 trillion yen and supplied record funds to banks on Monday to shore up confidence. After a fall to 81.23 JPY, following initial expectations of Japanese repatriation flows that would strengthen the currency, the dollar was boosted by BoJ announcement and climbed on Monday to 82.43 JPY. The greenback was edging down against the yen later, to trade at 81.79 JPY, still up 0.06%. The euro also went up against the yen to reach a high of 114.82 JPY on early Monday after hitting a low of 113.69 JPY, and steadied around 114.20 JPY later on. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was 0.4%, at 76.47. The British pound reached a high of 1.6141 USD on Monday and was buying 1.6130 USD soon after, up 0.29%. The sterling was recovering some lost ground also versus the euro, after it reached the lowest level this year. The euro was trading at 0.8666 GBP, up 0.24%, after reaching a high of 0.8693 GBP.
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Yen and Swiss franc up on Japan disaster concerns, euro down versus dollar
The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc climbed against major currencies as investors were closing positions on riskier assets following growing concerns of a radiation disaster.
The dollar went up though against the euro and the British pound.
The Japanese yen rose strongly versus the dollar and the euro. The greenback fell to 80.70 JPY, down 1.07%. The dollar had earlier reached a high of 82.03 JPY, raising speculation about a possible intervention on the market from the Bank of Japan, to counterbalance the effect of expectations of high repatriation flows.
Friday’s earthquake of 9 degrees on the Richter scale was followed by a huge tsunami that killed at least 10,000 people, according to the latest estimations, and by a series of blasts at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, raising concerns about a radiation disaster.
The single currency also slipped against the Japanese yen and bought 112.37 JPY, down 1.74%, bouncing from a low of 111.94 JPY.
The Swiss franc also gained ground as investors sought safe-haven currencies. The euro fell to 1.2734 CHF and later went slightly up, to 1.2754 CHF, although still down 1.34%. The dollar dropped to a record low against the Swiss franc, of 0.9167 CHF, and later went up to 0.9189 CHF, still down 0.61%.
The Australian dollar extended losses against the dollar, as investors sold the currency following the Japan catastrophe. The Aussie hit a low of 0.9829 USD and later bought 0.9849 USD, still down 2.4%.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.6%, at 76.85. The British pound steadied around 1.60 USD, down 0.9%, after falling as low as 1.5980 USD.
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Dollar down after weak economic data, yen steadies versus rivals
The dollar fell across borders on weak economic data, below market's expectations, while the Japanese yen steadies after climb against major currencies.
After a first part of the session that brought gains for the greenback against major currencies, the dollar slipped on negative economic data, below analysts’ expectations.
The current account deficit shrinked to 113.3 billion dollar during the fourth quarter, while forecasts showed a cuurent account deficit of 110 billion dollar. The housing starts fell in February with 22.5%, much below expectations of a 5% drop. Also, the producer price index showed a 5.6% annual increase in February, above expectations of 4.7%.
The dollar dipped to 80.45 JPY against the yen, from highs of 81.17 JPY reached during the Asian session, as the yen was slipping due to calmer financial markets. After falling closer to its record low versus the yen – of 79.75 JPY -, the dollar bounced back and was trading at 80.64 JPY, still down 0.15%.
The euro also slipped against the yen to 112.28 JPY from a high of 113.47 JPY and was later trading at 112.55 JPY, down 0.26%.
The single curreny was going up against the dollar after hitting a low of 1.3924 USD. The euro was trading at 1.3968 USD, although still down 0.28%.
The British pound rose against the dollar and the euro after data showed that the number of people claiming unemployment benefit fell in February by 10,200, while forecasts had shown an increase. The sterling was up 0.14% buying 1.6107 USD.
Against the safe-haven Swiss franc, both the euro and the dollar slipped. The greenback was back at opening levels of 0.9155 CHF, after climbing to 0.9197 CHF, while the euro fell to 1.2784 CHF, down 0.27%.
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Dollar slightly supported by positive data after hitting record lows versus yen and slipping against euro
The dollar steadied against major currencies with the help of positive US economic data after hitting record low against the Japanese yen and a fresh four-month low versus the euro. The greenback hit a record low of 77.16 JPY against the Japanese currency during the Asian session, to back off soon and reach a high of 79.74 JPY. Markets were suspecting the Bank of Japan intervention, as a strong currency hits Japanese exporters, and authorities want to avoid an economic crisis to add to the natural disaster that hit the country. The dollar slipped around 78.50 JPY, to start rising before American market opening to trade at 78.87 JPY, up 1.53%. A U.S. report showed consumer prices rose 0.5% in February, a little faster than some economists expected. A separate report showed jobless claims fell more than analysts were expecting. The euro also rose against the yen from lows of 107.53 JPY to steady around 110.40 JPY, up 1.8%. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar showed mixed trading, quotes varying between lows of 0.8967 CHF and highs of 0.9059 CHF. At American trading session opening, the dollar was buying 0.9025 JPY, up 0.41%. The euro gained ground versus the Swiss currency, climbing from 1.2479 CHF to 1.2676 CHF. The euro rose also against the weaker dollar and hit new four-month highs of 1.4052 USD. It was later losing ground and traded around 1.40 USD, up 0.72%. The single currency was supported by solid demand for a Spanish bond auction, where Spain sold debt of 4.1 billion euros, and the high expectations of interest rate hike in April. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.85%, at 76.04. The British pound steadied around 1.6140 USD, after climbing steadily from lows of 1.5981 USD to 1.6169 USD.