Forex Daily Analysis
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Dollar down against major currencies, euro supported by ECB rate view The dollar is slipping against major currencies on increasing oil prices and in the wait of ECB rate decision on Thursday. The euro was still up 0.26% against the greenback, at 1.3816 USD, but retracing from a high of 1.3841 USD. The single currency has been supported by markets waiting for Thursday European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. Forecasts show the central bank keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1% on Thursday, but investors will be searching for signals of a rate hike before the Federal Reserve, taking into consideration officials’ recent hawkish statements. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in front of the Congress on Tuesday only helped to reinforce this view. Bernanke said that inflationary pressures coming from recent oil prices increase will be only “temporary and relatively modest” and that the US economy is giving signs of a self-sustained recovery, although the job growth is still anemic. Markets are waiting for US job data, due on Friday. Sovereign debt crisis has been lately out of investors’ focus as they are now waiting for clear signs from euro zone officials negotiating over the region’s rescue fund reform. But concerns might reemerge as peripheral debt will soon come to maturity. Also, Portugal prime-minister Jose Socrates is meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday to discuss the indebted country’s future. The dollar was falling against the safe-haven Swiss franc, lately sought after due to the Middle East tensions that increased oil prices. The dollar slipped as low as 0.9237 CHF, down 0.5%. The British pound reached a high of 1.6323 USD after UK construction sector February survey data was above expectations. The index rose to its highest in eight months, 56.5, in contrast with forecasts of 52.9. The sterling later erased some of its gains against the dollar and was trading at 1.6286 USD, although still up 0.15%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was fell 0.25%, at 76.85. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 81.92 JPY, up 0.15%, after bouncing shortly at Wednesday sessions’ openings to highs of 82.11 JPY. The New Zealand dollar dipped against its US counterpart and the Aussie after country’s Prime Minister John Keytold said in an interview with Bloomberg that he expected the central bank to cut interest rates next week after a strong earthquake hit New Zealand second largest city, Christchurch. The Aussie reached a 19-year high against the kiwi, of 1.3688 NZD, which dipped 1% against the US dollar, to 0.7383 USD.
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Euro up ahead of ECB rate decision, sterling fall on weak service sector figures The euro is trading near its key resistance level ahead of ECB monetary policy decision, while the British pound slipped on service PMI below-expectations figures. The euro was trading at 1.3877 USD, up 0.06%, after falling to a low of 1.3830 USD during first European trading hours. The markets are waiting for European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision – although forecasts show the central bank keeping the interest rate at 1%, markets are waiting for other hawkish signs that the interest rate will be increased before Federal Reserve. The dollar found some support against the safe-haven Swiss franc as Al-Jazeera said Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and the president of the Arab League agreed to a peace plan from Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chavez. The dollar rose against the Swiss franc from a low of 0.9229 CHF to trade around 0.9255 CHF, up 0.26%. The euro was also up against the safe-haven Swiss franc to buy 1.2840 CHF, up 0.26%, from a low of 1.2786 CHF. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.01%, at 76.66. Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.15% to 81.74 JPY. The British pound fell versus the dollar after weaker than expected UK service PMI figures. UK Services PMI dropped in February to 52.6 from 54.5 in January, showing a sharper than expected slowdown, as markets were forecasting 53.5. The sterling fell to a low of 1.6260 USD and was steady around this level, down 0.34%.
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Euro jumps against dollar on hawkish Trichet, greenback higher against other rivals The euro surged against the dollar after ECB president Trichet hawkish comments on inflation, while the greenback started to recover ground against many important rivals. The euro jumped as high as 1.3970 USD from a level of 1.3845 USD following European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet press conference, where he said that euro zone prices evolution carry “upside risks” and that “strong vigilance is warranted” to tackle the problem. The hawkish statements followed an ECB monetary policy meeting during which the central bankers left the interest rate unchanged at the record level of 1%, but reinforce views that euro zone central bank will hike rates before the Federal Reserve. The euro was slightly edging down before Trichet press conference from highs of 1.3877 USD in early European trading. The euro, which has been lately supported by ECB officials’ hawkish statements, had been under slight pressure on Thursday as the dollar started to gain some ground after Al-Jazeera said Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and the president of the Arab League agreed to a peace plan from Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chavez. The dollar reached a high of 0.9306 CHF against the safe-haven Swiss franc and was later buying 0.9280 CHF, still up 0.43%. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback was up 0.35%, at 82.17 JPY. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.2%, at 76.52, due to the US currency’s fall against the euro. The British pound also recovered some of its earlier losses against the dollar and was trading at 1.6300 USD, still down 0.1%. The sterling had slipped in early European trading from 1.6333 USD to 1.6260 USD after weaker than expected UK service PMI figures. UK Services PMI dropped in February to 52.6 from 54.5 in January, showing a sharper than expected slowdown, as markets were forecasting 53.5.
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Euro continues rally against dollar, sterling recovers earlier losses
The euro continued its rally against the dollar on expectations the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates sooner than Fed, but found strong resistance at 1.40 USD level.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Thursday that it is possible, although not certain, that the central bank raises interest rates at its next policy meeting in April due to inflation pressures. The statements were made soon after ECB meeting that left interest rates at low record level of 1%.
The single currency was boosted by Trichet's speech and started a rally towards the 1.40 USD level, ahead of which found strong support. After a short break in its fast ascension against the dollar during Asian trading, the euro was trading on Friday, before US job data, at 1.39 USD, up %. It reached a high of 1,3978 USD.
The euro rose to a four-month high also against the Japanese yen due to Trichet hawkish comments and was trading at 115.43 JPY, up 0.30%.
The sterling was recovering from early losses against the dollar and the euro, after weak US housing data. The British pound was buying 1.1652 EUR, after slipping to 1.1628 EUR from a high of 1.1675 USD. Againt the dollar, the sterling erased losses and was back at 1.6280 USD levels, up 0.03%, after falling as low as 1.6233 USD.
The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.04%, at 76.45. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was up 0.22%, trading at 82.61 JPY.
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Dollar up versus euro and yen after US employment data
The dollar rose against the euro and yen on US February employment data and the single currency went back at 1.3950 USD levels after shortly breaking the 1.40 USD barrier. According to the US Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 192,000 in February, the fastest pace since last May. US unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 8.9% in February from 9.0% in January. Forecasts were showing a rate increase to 9.1%. This is the lowest level since April 2009. Unemployment dropped by 190,000 to 13.7 million for February, while employment rose, jumping 250,000 to 139.6 million. The euro had managed to break the 1.40 barrier and trade at 1.4001 USD at the American session opening, but soon slipped to 1.3950 USD level after US employment data was published. The euro was trading at 1.3953 USD, down 0.04%. The euro has been backed in the last day by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speech, saying that it is possible, although not certain, that the central bank raises interest rates at its next policy meeting in April due to risk "on the upside" for inflation. "Strong vigilance is warranted", he added. The statements were made soon after the ECB monetary policy meeting that left interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1%, and pushed the euro towards the 1.40 USD barrier. The euro rose to a four-month high also against the Japanese yen due to Trichet hawkish comments and was trading at 115.54 JPY, up 0.43%, after reaching a high of 115.98 JPY. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of other major currencies, was flat at 76.48. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar reached a high of 83.00 JPY after US job data and was later trading at 82.65 JPY, still up 0.27%. The sterling slipped against the dollar also, after a short recovery from early losses on weak US housing data. The British pound was down around the 1.6250 USD level, after a short bounce to a high above 1.63 USD. The safe-haven Swiss franc was gaining ground against the dollar and the euro. The greenback was down 0.35%, at 0.9283 CHF, while the single currency slipped 0.35%, trading at 1.2970 CHF, although it managed for a short period to bounce above 1.30 CHF level.
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Rate hike expectations keep euro above 1.4 USD despite Greece downgrade
The single currency remained strong, rising to a four-month high on Monday and trading above 1.40 USD, although rating agency Moody’s announced that it cut Greece’s rating. The euro was trading close to the 1.40 level before Moody’s announcement to fall to a low of 1.3951 USD. Greece’s rating was cut by three notches from Ba1 to B1 and it was assigned a negative outlook, while Moody’s warned that it keeps the rating under review for a possible further downgrade. The single currency recovered fast though after the news and soon hit its four-month high against the dollar, of 1.4031 USD, to trade further around 1.4020, still up 0.15%. The euro has been supported by European Central Bank (ECB) statements that it might raise interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in April from the current record level of 1%. ECB view contrasts with the one expressed by the Federal Reserve in its loose policy, with less chances of a rate increase in the near future. The euro recovered from a steep fall also against the Japanese yen. After slipping to a low of 114.52 JPY, the single currency rose to 115.09 JPY, although still down 0.07%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.28%, at 76.18. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.27%, to trade at 82.05 JPY. The British pound climbed against the dollar to reach a high of 1.6336 USD and traded later still up 0.28%, at. 1.6323 USD.
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Dollar still weak vs major currencies, euro steady near its 2011 high The dollar continued to weaken against major currencies and the euro steadied above 1.40 USD level after its strong climb to 2011 highs. The euro steadied around the 1.4020 USD level, up 0.19%, at the American trading session opening, after it reached a fresh four-month high of 1.4031 USD. The currency rebounded from early lows of 1.3951 USD, when it was slightly hit by the news that Moody’s downgraded Greece by three notches, assigning a negative outlook. Also, the rating agency said that it keeps its sovereign rating under review for a possible downgrade. Spain was also on focus on Friday, when rating agency Fitch put its sovereign rating under review for a possible downgrade. The euro has been supported by European Central Bank (ECB) statements that it might raise interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in April from the current record low of 1% in an attempt to tackle inflation pressures. ECB view contrasts with the one expressed by the Federal Reserve in its loose policy. Fed still wants to support economic growth, with less chances of a rate increase in the near future. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.21% at 76.24, but recovering from lows of 76.12. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 82.08 JPY, down 0.24%, after hitting a low of 82.01 JPY. The Australian dollar continued its strong climb against the dollar. The Aussie bought 1.0179 USD, up 0.3%. The British pound slipped against the greenback, after reaching a high of 1.6336 USD. The sterling fell to 1.6286 USD, but still up 0.09%.
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Euro down, gives signs of correction, Swiss franc falls broadly The euro gave signs of losing the steam against the dollar after a rally boosted by European Central Bank (ECB) chief statements that interest rates might be hiked next month. The euro fell to a low of 1.3911 USD, down 0.38%, after it had reached a fresh four month high of 1.4031 USD a day before on speculation ECB might raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve or Bank of England. The markets are not excluding a possible downward correction for the euro as concerns about euro zone debt problems are returning. The EU summit at the end of this month should bring the long awaited responses for tackling the debt crisis, but any sign that the European leaders can’t get to an agreement can trigger euro selling. The Swiss franc slipped against the dollar and the euro after the statement from Kuwait oil minister that OPEC might boost oil production, which eased oil prices. The safe-haven Swiss franc has been supported by popular uprisings in the Middle East that lead to a surge in oil prices. The dollar was up 0.4% at 82.55 CHF, while the euro bought 1.2986 CHF, up 0.36%, after reaching a high of 1.3040 CHF. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.24%, at 76.69. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was up 0.44%, at 82.59 JPY. The British pound slipped 0.13%, to trade at 1.6175 USD.
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Euro still down, dollar recovers against major currencies on easing oil prices
The euro continued its retreat against the dollar during the American trading session opening, losing ground below the 1.39 USD level, as support seen from expectations for a rate hike diminished and easing oil prices helped the dollar. The euro fell to a low of 1.3886 USD, down 0.52%, after it had reached a fresh four-month high of 1.4031 USD a day before on speculation ECB might raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve or Bank of England. The markets are not excluding a downward correction for the euro as concerns about euro zone debt problems are returning. The EU summit at the end of this month should bring the long awaited responses for tackling the debt crisis, but any sign that the European leaders can’t get to an agreement can trigger euro selling. Rating agency Moody’s cut Greece’s rating with three notches on Monday, assigning it a negative outlook and warning that the rating is kept under review for a possible further downgrade. Also, Spain’s rating was put under review for a possible downgrade by rating agency Fitch on Friday, which reminded markets that the debt crisis is not over yet and euro zone still has to take measures to recover. The Swiss franc slipped against the dollar and the euro after the statement from Kuwait oil minister that OPEC might boost oil production, which eased oil prices. The safe-haven Swiss franc has been supported by popular uprisings in the Middle East that lead to a surge in oil prices. The dollar steadied around 0.9315 CHF, up 0.62%, after reaching a high of 0.9354 CHF, while the euro bought 1.2944 CHF, up 0.04%, after reaching a high of 1.3040 CHF. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.41%, at 76.81. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 82.48 JPY, up 0.3%, down from a high of 82.61 JPY. The British pound slipped 0.27%, to trade at 1.6148 USD.
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Euro extends losses, dollar supported by easing oil prices
The euro continued its fall against the dollar for the third day in a row, as support from a possible April ECB rate hike started to fade once concerns about euro zone debt problems returned ahead of an EU summit on Friday. The euro was trading at 1.3880 USD, down 0.19%, after falling as low as 1.3853 USD. The single currency has been pushed down by increasing concerns about euro zone sovereign problems after it reached a four-month high on Monday of 1.4031 USD. Also, easing oil prices have helped the dollar recover lost ground in front of other major currencies and made it harder for the euro to resist over a longer period above the 1.40 USD level. The market is waiting for signs of clear solutions to tackle the euro zone debt problems starting with Friday EU summit. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.05%, at 76.83. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose 0.22%, to 82.83 JPY. The British pound steadied against the dollar around 1.6150 USD before starting to climb close to the 1.62 USD level. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell to 0.9320 CHF, down 0.25%, while the euro slipped 0.44% to 1.2945 CHF.