Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013

Moody’s: Euro zone debt markets vulnerable to further shocks
Moody’s rating agency continues to warn Euro area countries that debt markets in the region remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence. Find below the main quotes from the official communique: “Market volatility in recent days proves that the euro area sovereign debt markets remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence because of the limited fundamental changes in euro area countries’ economic indicators, debt trajectories or institutional reforms since last July.”

“The growth outlook for peripheral countries is still weak, and progress in reversing debt trajectories remains slow and halting. Political and implementation risks remain significant, with little evidence of cohesion among policymakers and a rising risk of complacency setting in as market pressure for reforms subsides. And while the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transaction facility by the European Central Bank has successfully reversed the rise in sovereign debt yields for now, the potential for further shocks remains, for example with investors in Greece (C) and Cyprus (Caa3, negative) still exposed to heightened default risk.” “Overall, for most euro area countries, the balance of macroeconomic, political and implementation risks as well as the ‘event’ risks of further shocks to confidence remain firmly to the downside, supporting Moody’s negative outlooks for most euro area sovereign ratings.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...ruary-28-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-28 08:55 GMT | Germany. DE Unemployment Change (Feb)
2013-02-28 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-28 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-02-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)

Forex News
2013-02-27 13:52 GMT | USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders
2013-02-27 13:50 GMT | EUR/USD back to 1.3085/90 after US data
2013-02-27 13:31 GMT | US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January
2013-02-27 12:38 GMT | GBP/USD easing from 1.5140 zone



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.31615 | LOW: 1.31284 | BID: 1.31468 | ASK: 1.31476 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08 : 43:26



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3163 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3189 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3214 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although we do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.3132 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.3104 (S2) and 1.3076 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3163, 1.3189, 1.3214
Support Levels: 1.3132, 1.3104, 1.3076

---------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51769 | LOW: 1.51589 | BID: 1.51683 | ASK: 1.51693 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08 : 43:27



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5177 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5219 (R2) and 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 1.5119 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 1.5080 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5039 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5177, 1.5219, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5119, 1.5080, 1.5039

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.668 | LOW: 92.157 | BID: 92.376 | ASK: 92.379 | CHANGE: 0.18% | TIME: 08 : 43:28



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 92.66 (R1). Next interim target holds at 92.97 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 93.27 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 92.15 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 91.85 (S2) and 91.54 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 92.66, 92.97, 93.27
Support Levels: 92.15, 91.85, 91.54

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013

It's official, the US sequestration kicks in

The sequestration, for those unfamiliar with the term, is defined by the US Federal Budget as "the practice of using mandatory spending cuts in the federal budget if the cost of running the government exceeds either an arbitrary amount or the the gross revenue it brings during the fiscal year." These automatic federal budget cuts are officially kicking in within as we write these lines, after a final bill presented by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to win enough support. What this means is that the US will now go through an across-the-board spending cuts in the face of annual budget deficits, which are thought to amount over $85 billion in the current fiscal year. "Assuming that every dollar cut in spending reduces GDP by a dollar, the sequester will shave US growth by around 0.5% this year" comments Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.

Marc adds: "The sequester itself is a bit of a farce in the sense that it was never intended to be enacted. It was purposely designed to be absurd to give the political class incentive to find an alternative." The analyst suspects that what is behind the 'sequester' is the fact that main political players did their calculations concluding is the best worst alternative. Obama crossed the wires later Thursday, saying that "tomorrow I will bring together leaders from both parties to discuss a path forward; as a nation, we can’t keep lurching from one manufactured crisis to another. Middle-class families can’t keep paying the price for dysfunction in Washington.” Kathy Lien, co-founder at BK Asset Management, notes: "We've been down this road before with the debt ceiling and survived." But as Kathy adds, here comes the kicker: "The Obama Administration has another 30 days to come up with a deal to cancel and avoid the cuts. The more important deadline is March 27th, when the government runs out of money and will be forced to shutdown if no additional measures are taken." Investors are holding out hope for a last minute deal, Kathy says.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01032013/


Forex Economic Calendar
2013-03-01 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Dec)
2013-03-01 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forex News
2013-03-01 05:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5150; slows down avrg vol
2013-03-01 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD continues sequestered by sellers
2013-03-01 03:50 GMT | Gold below $1590 as 'sequester' looms
2013-03-01 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD little moved around 1.0220


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30836 LOW 1.30532 BID 1.30775 ASK 1.30783 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 02:53



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price get momentum on the downside yesterday however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3094 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3121 (R2) and 1.3146 (R3). Downwards scenario: Near term outlook is negative for the EURUSD as the price setup is taken a form of a downside formation. Expected progress below the initial support level at 1.3051 (S1) might expose intraday targets at 1.3024 (S2) and then 1.2996 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3094, 1.3121, 1.3146
Support Levels: 1.3051, 1.3024, 1.2996

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51824 LOW 1.51513 BID 1.51811 ASK 1.51824 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 02:54



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power today. Next on tap is resistance level at 1.5198 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5227 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be limited to last resistance at 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, yesterday lows at 1.5148 (S1) offers an important technical level. Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and expose our lower targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5086 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5198, 1.5227, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5148, 1.5118, 1.5086

----------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.731 LOW 92.466 BID 92.536 ASK 92.541 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 02:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Ascending uptrend formation remains in power today. Next resistance is seen at 92.73 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets to be exposed at 92.97 (R2) and 93.20 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the supportive barrier at 92.45 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 92.23 (R2) and then 92.01 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.73, 92.97, 93.20
Support Levels: 92.45, 92.23, 92.01


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Exchange Market FX Brokers | Automated Forex Trading System | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 05 2013

Cyprus rescue deal nears

Cyprus is well on track to be bailed out by the Euro-zone, after the bloc's finance ministers made a determined pledge this Monday to extend the much-needed final assistance to the cash-strapped country. The decision should be made official by the end of March, with details on how it will be rescued still unknown. The Eurogroup welcomed the new Cypriot Finance Minister, Michalis Sarris, and the information he provided on the situation in Cyprus following the presidential elections and on the policy intentions of the new government. The first exchanges with the new Cypriot government have been useful. With the new government now in place in Cyprus, the Eurogroup is confident that a swift conclusion of the negotiations towards a Memorandum of Understanding can be reached.

The Eurogroup welcomes the commitment of President Anastasiades, reiterated by Minister Sarris, to closely cooperate with Cyprus's European partners towards the earliest possible completion of the loan agreement. For its part, the Eurogroup reiterates its readiness to assist Cyprus in its adjustment effort, including of its banking sector, in order to bring the economy to a sustainable growth path with sound public finances and to safeguard financial stability. The Eurogroup has been informed that the preparatory work for concluding a Memorandum of Understanding is advanced and that the new government has agreed on an independent evaluation of the implementation of the anti-money laundering framework in Cypriot financial institutions. The Eurogroup called on the international institutions and Cyprus to accelerate their work on the building blocks of a programme, and agreed to target political endorsement of the programme around the second half of March. The Eurogroup will reconvene again in the near term in view of the progress of the discussions between the Cypriot authorities and the international institutions.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A E.M.U. EcoFin Meeting
2013-03-05 09:28 GMT United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Feb)
2013-03-05 10:00 GMT E.M.U. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
2013-03-05 15:00 GMT United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-05 05:54 GMT USD/JPY breaks below 93.00
2013-03-05 05:40 GMT GBP/USD again quiet in Asia-Pacific above 1.51
2013-03-05 04:35 GMT EUR/USD at peace with 1.30 vicinity
2013-03-05 03:41 GMT AUD/USD higher post-RBA on hold


-------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30462 LOW 1.3018 BID 1.30409 ASK 1.30415 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:06:44



OUTLOOK SUMMARY :Up
TREND CONDITION :Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT :Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY :Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh high of the day recently however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bearish side. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.3052 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.3086 (R2) and last one at 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenge on the downside is seen at 1.3012 (S1). Breakthrough of this level would open way for a stronger expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.2977 (S2) and 1.2941 (R3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3052, 1.3086, 1.3118
Support Levels: 1.3012, 1.2977, 1.2941

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51398 LOW 1.51041 BID 1.51217 ASK 1.51230 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:06:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY :Up
TREND CONDITION :Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT :Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY :Medium

Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus holds at 1.5140 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 1.5165 (R2) and 1.5190 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 1.5099 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.5070 (S2) and 1.5041 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5140, 1.5165, 1.5190
Support Levels: 1.5099, 1.5070, 1.5041


USDJPY :
HIGH 93.537 LOW 92.913 BID 93.066 ASK 93.072 CHANGE -0.43% TIME 08:06:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT :Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY :Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 93.28 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 93.54 (R2) and then target at 93.80 (R3) acts as last supportive measure for today. Downwards scenario: The low of the day offers key supportive barrier at 92.89 (S1). Break here might provide sufficient momentum for the downside expansion later on today. Our initial support levels locates today at 92.63 (S2) and 92.37 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 93.28, 93.54, 93.80
Support Levels: 92.89, 92.63, 92.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 06 2013

Keep an eye on the oil market after Chavez's death

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the breaking news of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez death, which has no direct impact on the currency market, traders should, nevertheless, keep an eye on the Oil market, as it may produce some volatility. Venezuelan Vice President Mr. Maduro is expected to win the elections and become Chavez's successor. There was some incendiary comments from Maduro after the announcement of Chavez's death, which Reuters reports: ”We have no doubt that commander Chavez was attacked with this illness,” Maduro said, repeating a charge first made by Chavez himself that the cancer was an attack by “imperialist” foes in the United States in league with domestic enemies.

"This report should be bullish for oil" says Eamonn Sheridan, editor at Forexlive. At the time of writing, US Oil futures are quoted at 90.83 after sharp fall off a double top from early February in the 98.00 vicinity. Venezuela enjoys the world's largest oil reserves and the oil-related bonds being traded are of enormous size, suggesting that the oil community may go through a phase of hyper-sensitivity on any indications of political unrest in the country. As Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes: "Although the news has little to do right now with the forex market, Venezuela is an oil producer, and therefore, we may see some wild action in oil and that could affect forex market." She tips to keep an eye on this and its correlation with oil, "particularly at the European and the US opening" she said.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-06 09:45 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-03-06 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Mar 6)
2013-03-06 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Beige Book

Forex News :
2013-03-06 01:18 GMT | USD/JPY pressing against 93.00
2013-03-06 00:45 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.0280 after Aus GDP
2013-03-06 00:19 GMT | EUR/JPY still capped below 122.00
2013-03-05 22:50 GMT | AUD/JPY pushing against 6-day highs ahead of Aus GDP


----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30704 LOW 1.30421 BID 1.30683 ASK 1.30688 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:06:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today at 1.3070 (R1) is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. Break here is required to validate next upcoming targets at 1.3090 (R2) and 1.3113 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3045 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3022 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51543 LOW 1.51236 BID 1.51441 ASK 1.51451 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:06:52



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is slightly improved during the Asian session however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.5154 (R1) to enable our interim target at 1.5175 (R2) and then further gains would be limited to resistance at 1.5197 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.5129 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.5108 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support and 1.5087 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5154, 1.5175, 1.5197
Support Levels: 1.5129, 1.5108, 1.5087


USDJPY :
HIGH 93.38 LOW 92.995 BID 93.186 ASK 93.192 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 06:53



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized below the next resistance level at 93.29 (R1). Penetration above it might encourage orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 93.51 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 92.99 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 92.78 (S2) and 92.56 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.29, 93.51, 93.72
Support Levels: 92.99, 92.78, 92.56

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013

ECB moving closer to a cut; BoE eyeing additional QE

Economic data coming out of the Eurozone in recent months has been rather poor but even though the ECB has still limited room to cut rates, it is generally not expected to make this move at the upcoming meeting. The BoE´s monetary policy decision is the source of more speculation this month as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members expressed their support for additional QE. Even though the majority of the analysts polled for the special forecast report expect the ECB to cut interest rates sometime this year, they rather do not see the central bank making this decision in March. "The markets are nervous about the recent elections results in Italy as well as about a possible QE decrease by the Fed so I do not think Mario would want to add fuel to the fire," Adam Narczewski suggests, while others point also to the successful announcement of the OMT as a factor reducing the need for a cut. Only Steve Ruffley sees the ECB bringing "rates to 0.5%, in line with that of the BOE" on March 7, as "the economic horizon for the EU remains very treacherous."

Attention will center on the ECB press conference following the interest rate announcement, during which president Mario Draghi might, in the opinion of Bill Hubard, "revise inflation projections to the downside." He is also likely to "try and balance between the current economic situation which is quite depressing, and the optimism for growth in H2 2013, coming now from higher business confidence, mostly in Germany," as Yohay Elam believes. The outcome of the BoE´s March monetary policy meeting is less clear for the experts as the minutes from the January meeting surprised with the information that three out of the nine MPC members (including the governor Mervyn King) voted in favor of an additional expansion of the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £400 billion. "The downgrade by Moody's, together with the growing support for more QE and the lack of fiscal stimulus from the government will likely lead the MPC to action, even though the effects of QE on the economy are questionable," Yohay Elam predicts, but the majority of the economists polled believe the expansion could be carried out later in the year.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/07032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-07 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info

Forex News :
2013-03-07 05:51 GMT | GBP/JPY still in uptrend - JPMorgan
2013-03-07 05:17 GMT | BoJ holds steady; Cable prints fresh lows
2013-03-07 04:55 GMT | NZDUSD bearish potential intact - Saxo Bank
2013-03-07 03:44 GMT | USD/JPY slightly to the downside as no surprise from BoJ

----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29963 LOW 1.29686 BID 1.29911 ASK 1.29916 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07:57:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: An evidence of uptrend formation might be provided if the price manages to surpass key resistive structure at 1.3009 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would put in focus our higher targets at 1.3038 (R2) and 1.0388 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument is moving with a ranging momentum on a slightly shorter timeframe and might retest our next support level at 1.2965 (S1). Market decline below it might lead to the further easing towards to next targets at 1.2938 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50175 LOW 1.49669 BID 1.50019 ASK 1.50031 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 07:57:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 1.5043 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 1.5075 (R2) and further uptrend formation could be exhausted at 1.5107 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Technical indicators are bearish and if the price manages to break our next support level at 1.4968 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5043, 1.5075, 1.5107
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.115 LOW 93.792 BID 93.926 ASK 93.932 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 07:57:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Consolidation pattern formation likely comes to the end and appreciation above the resistance at 94.13 (R1) might start of a new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 94.42 (R2) and 94.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low formed today is pointing to a short-term key support at 93.77 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 93.47 (S2) and 93.19 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 94.13, 94.42, 94.70
Support Levels: 93.77, 93.47, 93.19

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | ECN Trading Account | Forex ECN Broker | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013

Fed's stress test: banks better prepared for downturn

Stress tests results in the US, conducted by the Fed as an exercise required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have shown that 17 out of 18 banks stress tested meet the minimum requirement of tier 1 capital above the 5% threshold, noting that banks could weather sharp downturn with adequate capital. FED said 18 banks projected losses may amount $462 billion under severe market shock, with the test assuming an equity drop of more than 50% and housing prices decreasing more than 20%. The only bank failing to comply with the 5% tier 1 capital was Ally. In summary, all bans combined showed they exceed regulatory minimums although there were wide gaps among them.

The February US jobs numbers are not expected to differ substantially from those registered in the recent months, although the market experts participating in the forecast report suggest that they will rather be somewhat lower. This time the range of predictions is relatively narrow: between 110K and 200K jobs added. Alexandra Estiot who sees the US labor market growing by 180-200K in February justifies her optimistic forecast by saying that "in late 2012, some signs of strengthening were already obvious, with non-farm private payrolls growing by more than 200k a month" and that "leading indicators are pointing to a strengthening of that trend, with employment components of ISM surveys at historical highs." She nevertheless warns about the effects of the automatic budget cuts which after being implemented might harm the labor market. Other analysts, who expect more modest jobs gains in the range of 130K-170K, are also worried about the impact of the sequester and some suspect that the steady growth trend might be coming to an end. Steve Ruffley points to a similar situation in the corresponding period of last year: "We have seen a steady decrease in 2013 from the NFP highs of 247K to last month’s figure of 157K; this mirrors the start of 2012 where the NFP went from 259K to 154K." Should the reading prove better than expected "it could cause short-term positive reaction in the stocks market," as Talal Abdullah suggests and adds that "the uptick in NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth." US NFP numbers for February will be released on March 8 at 13:30 GMT.-FXstreet.com
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. Consumer Inflation Expectations
2013-03-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-08 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD unable to hold above 1.5000
2013-03-08 05:20 GMT | Draghi rescues Euro from its $1.30 agony, can it last?
2013-03-08 03:26 GMT | NZD/USD pullsback to retest 0.8260
2013-03-08 02:38 GMT | USD/JPY prints yet another fresh high above 95.20


-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31152 LOW 1.3087 BID 1.30958 ASK 1.30964 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 30:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all resistive measures yesterday and formed clear uptrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Currently resistive structure at 1.3118 (R1) prevents further gains. Only clearance here would open route towards to next targets at 1.3139 (R2) and 1.3159 (R3). Downwards scenario: Today we expect some consolidation ahead prior further volatility increase. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3074 (S1) with next expected targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3032 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3118, 1.3139, 1.3159
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3032

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50263 LOW 1.49816 BID 1.49944 ASK 1.49951 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:30:35



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5020 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5050 (R2) and 1.5081 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.4968 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5020, 1.5050, 1.5081
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904

-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.445 LOW 94.781 BID 95.287 ASK 95.291 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 30:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY broke all resistive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its high’s. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 95.50 (R1) is compulsory to resume positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 95.84 (R2) and 96.19 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 95.10 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 94.75 (S2) and 94.37 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.50, 95.84, 96.19
Support Levels: 95.10, 94.75, 94.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013

Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative

Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.

Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.

Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex School | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 12 2013

Troika inclined towards extending Portugal’s rescue loan maturity

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For the London session ahead UK Manufacturing production for January on monthly basis at 09:30 GMT will be key risk event of the day, along with UK Trade balance and Industrial production at same hour. The British Manufacturing Production indicator measures the changes in output produced by manufacturers and in the turning of inventory. Manufacturing is a critical sector of the economy, and strong readings are an indication of economic growth. After a string of weak releases, Manufacturing Production shot up 1.6% in February, well above the market estimate of 0.7%. However, the markets are bracing for a much weaker figure for March, with an estimate of a paltry gain of just 0.1%. Will the indicator surprise the market with another strong reading?
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-12 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-12 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Feb)
2013-03-12 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-12 05:52 GMT | EUR/USD firmer above 1.30
2013-03-12 05:19 GMT | USD/JPY makes new highs; BoJ may call emergency meeting
2013-03-12 04:05 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.49 ahead of key UK data
2013-03-12 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD 1.0340/75 key zone to move higher - JPM


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30464 LOW 1.30229 BID 1.30250 ASK 1.30256 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08:10:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.3035 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.3052 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3) Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.0318 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.0306 (S2) and then 1.0295 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3035, 1.3052, 1.3070
Support Levels: 1.0318, 1.0306, 1.0295


GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49188 LOW 1.48857 BID 1.48955 ASK 1.48967 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:10:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.4935 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 1.4969 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.5001 (R3) Downwards scenario: Market stabilized after the previous day’s losses and looks ready for a new step of downtrend extension. Key support level lies at 1.4866 (S1), clearance here would suggest lower targets at 1.4834 (S2) and 1.4803 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4935, 1.4969, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4866, 1.4834, 1.4803

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USDJPY :
HIGH 96.708 LOW 96.268 BID 96.442 ASK 96.445 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08:10:40



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation provided last week we expect some consolidation development ahead, though medium-term bias remains bullish. Marks at 96.68 (R1), 97.07 (R2) and last one at 97.49 (R3) acts as resistive measures on the upside. Downwards scenario: A short-term technical structure might turn into negative side in case of price regress below the support level at 96.01 (S1). Possible correction below this level would then be targeting initial support at 95.60 (S2) en route towards to final target at 95.20 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.68, 97.07, 97.49
Support Levels: 96.01, 95.60, 95.20

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex Blog | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 13 2013

Rehn defends Eurozone’s austerity policy

European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn spoke against the critics of budget cutting measures recommended by the European Union in an interview published today in a Finnish newspaper. Rehn responded to voices of such economists as Paul Krugman who suggest that Brussels should stop reducing spending and encourage the most indebted countries to stimulate their economies, instead of making them believe that this is a way to regain market confidence. The disagreement sprang up after the European Commission published various projections which pointed to a deeper and more prolonged recession in the countries in the south of Europe, which are implementing harsh austerity measures.

Olli Rehn believes that the experts who agree with Krugman distorted the results of a study carried out by the IMF in 2012 regarding the consequences of austerity, which said that the impact of spending cuts on growth could be greater than expected. According to the commissioner, “It is essential that the IMF paper does not give rise to the conclusion that economic adjustment would not be desirable” and that is why he believes that the critics are putting forward their own interpretation in order to attack the Eurozone policy. Rehn assured that he expects “people who are more intelligent” to present alternative and realistic propositions in order to improve the flow of credit in Europe, as until now this did not happen yet.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-13 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-13 17:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction
2013-03-13 20:00 GMT | New Zeland. Monetary Policy Statement

Forex News :
2013-03-13 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD eyes US retail sales
2013-03-13 04:36 GMT | USD/JPY mixed on BoJ nominees, holds above 95.60
2013-03-13 03:33 GMT | GBP/USD prints fresh weekly highs, knocks 1.4950
2013-03-13 01:16 GMT | USD/CAD momentum fading - TDS

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30438 LOW 1.30227 BID 1.30390 ASK 1.30398 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 07:58:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD lost momentum recently and trapped to the range mode trading. On the upside next hurdle ahead is seen at 1.3053 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.3022 (S1). A fall below it might prolong the weakness towards to next target at 1.3006 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to final support at 1.2988 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3053, 1.3069, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.3022, 1.3006, 1.2988

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49524 LOW 1.48927 BID 1.49360 ASK 1.49370 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07:58:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Retail trader’s sentiment on the bullish side today. Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the important resistive bastion at 1.4952 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.4976 (R2) and 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our support level is placed on the important fractal level- 1.4916 (S1). Below here is seen potential of price acceleration towards to our initial targets at 1.4890 (S2) and then final one at 1.4865 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4952, 1.4976, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865

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USDJPY :

HIGH 96.101 LOW 95.589 BID 95.711 ASK 95.718 CHANGE -0.38% TIME 07:58:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY corrected from the initial upside development yesterday and currently looking for priority in direction for today. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 96.10 (R1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 96.40 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Clearance of our next support level at 95.59 (S1) is required to enable further retracement phase and expose our target at 95.31 (S2). Further market decline looks limited to final support level at 95.03 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.10, 96.40, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.59, 95.31, 95.03

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 14 2013

Eurogroup talks on Cyprus at Friday meeting might be unofficial

Eurozone Finance Ministers are expected to continue their negotiations on the rescue loan for Cyprus during the meeting scheduled for Friday, although some sources claim that these negotiations will be led on the sidelines of the main talks. Cyprus and the Troika are trying to bring down the amount of the aid to 10 billion euros from the previously estimated 17 billion euros. According to Peter Jackson from FxBriefs.com “Cyprus may be forced to raise money from levies on deposits, other taxes such as corporate tax (which could be raised to 12.5% from 10%), as well as the possibility of a much opposed financial transaction tax.”

Representatives of the international lenders will meet with president Nicos Anastasiades for preparatory talks before the Friday summit on Thursday evening in Nicosia. It was given to understand that there was a possibility of striking the bailout deal already on Friday. Nevertheless, a German government official said in the European afternoon that the talks on the rescue program for Cyprus would be informal, thus no final decision could be made this week. He also added that Germany is waiting for the Troika’s evaluation of Cyprus before making any decisions. The EU Finance Ministers’ meeting is due to start on Friday at 16:00 GMT, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem informed on his Twitter account.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-14 08:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Employment Change (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-14 12:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-14 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info

Forex News :
2013-03-14 06:08 GMT | EUR/USD, calls for lower lows persist
2013-03-14 05:23 GMT | Aussie skyrockets after 'beyond belief' Aus jobs
2013-03-14 03:50 GMT | USD/JPY call spreads attractive - Standard Chartered
2013-03-14 01:37 GMT | EUR/JPY puts pressure on 123.80/124.15 proven demand

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29814 LOW 1.29431 BID 1.29552 ASK 1.29561 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 49:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today however clearance of next resistive structure at 1.2982 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 1.2997 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.3013 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 1.2942 (S1). Clearance of this level would suggest further downtrend development with possible targets at 1.2927 (S2) and 1.2911 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2982, 1.2997, 1.3013
Support Levels: 1.2942, 1.2927, 1.2911

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49564 LOW 1.49124 BID 1.49401 ASK 1.49411 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 49:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.4957 (R1), break here would open road towards to our next target at 1.4979 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive structure at 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.4916 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.4890 (S2) and potentially to 1.4865 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4957, 1.4979, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865

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USDJPY :
HIGH 96.146 LOW 95.684 BID 95.953 ASK 95.959 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08 : 49:09



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downwar penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 96.17 (R1). Appreciation above it would suggest us about the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 96.43 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 95.66 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 95.43 (S2) and 95.18 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.17, 96.43, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.66, 95.43, 95.18

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Software | Forex Currency Trading blog | FXCC )