You are currently not signed in.

Please sign in or register.

Probability of Loss

页数: 1
Apr 02, 2013 04:06 am
#1
illiterate User

帖子: 561
入会日期: 21/04/2011

I am talking about the probability which is given in the image attached. Do not misunderstand this probability with the another probability of winning or loosing a trade.

This Probability of Loss tells us about risk of trading with that strategy. In other words it tells us about money and risk management strategy of a trader. Risk and money management are two of most important factors in trading. For example if a trader is having 10% probability of loss = 30%. It means that there is a 10% chance of loosing ur 30% investment. If ur total investment is $1000 and u r using proportionate lot size then there is a 10% chance that u will loose $300. But 10% probability means very low probability. 

You will see some accounts here on fxstat, earning very high amount of profit. Look at probability of Loss table and u will see that they r having 100% probability of loosing 100% investment. It means that even a single mis-managed trade can blow whole account. 

So checking profit or drawdown alone doesnt tell the whole story. Probability of loss is an important factor too. A lower probability of loss indicates better money and risk management.

https://www.fxstat.com/widget/link?t=medium&c=1&s=25892&o1=growth&o2=drawdown&o3=monthly&o4=equity

Attachements:



Apr 03, 2013 03:37 am
Champ User

帖子: 711
入会日期: 17/05/2011

Nice explanation illiterate. 

Really helpfull for newcommers who want to interpret fxstat analysis.

http://www.fxstat.com/widget/link?t=tiny&c=1&s=24959&o1=growth&o2=drawdown&o3=profitfactor

Apr 04, 2013 03:09 am
Jogi User

帖子: 685
入会日期: 06/06/2011

Very important factor indeed. Usually it is ignored while reviewing performances. It should be seen when u r choosing signal providers.

Thx for this important article, illiterate.

http://www.fxstat.com/widget/link?t=wide&c=1&s=26883&o1=growth&o2=drawdown&o3=monthly&o4=equity

Apr 05, 2013 04:20 am
illiterate User

帖子: 561
入会日期: 21/04/2011

Originally posted by Jogi

Very important factor indeed. Usually it is ignored while reviewing performances. It should be seen when u r choosing signal providers.

Thx for this important article, illiterate.



Usually fxstat doesnt accept high risk strategies. I wrote this article because of demo scammers having some accounts here on fxstat. It is an "Alert" article for beginners to watch performances carefully. Those scammers r trying to sell "EAs" by showing scam performances.

https://www.fxstat.com/widget/link?t=medium&c=1&s=25892&o1=growth&o2=drawdown&o3=monthly&o4=equity

Apr 12, 2013 06:21 am

帖子: 939
入会日期: 21/04/2011

Originally posted by illiterate

I am talking about the probability which is given in the image attached. Do not misunderstand this probability with the another probability of winning or loosing a trade.

This Probability of Loss tells us about risk of trading with that strategy. In other words it tells us about money and risk management strategy of a trader. Risk and money management are two of most important factors in trading. For example if a trader is having 10% probability of loss = 30%. It means that there is a 10% chance of loosing ur 30% investment. If ur total investment is $1000 and u r using proportionate lot size then there is a 10% chance that u will loose $300. But 10% probability means very low probability. 

You will see some accounts here on fxstat, earning very high amount of profit. Look at probability of Loss table and u will see that they r having 100% probability of loosing 100% investment. It means that even a single mis-managed trade can blow whole account. 

So checking profit or drawdown alone doesnt tell the whole story. Probability of loss is an important factor too. A lower probability of loss indicates better money and risk management.



This really is an important section when trader hides other information.

Stick to your rules

Apr 13, 2013 08:16 am
khushivis User

帖子: 5
入会日期: 13/04/2013

It show out the expected ratio of performance but not be sure.

Apr 24, 2013 05:59 pm
irfan User

帖子: 43
入会日期: 24/04/2013

Very essential aspect indeed. Usually it is ignored while examining activities. It should be seen when u r selecting indication suppliers.

Aug 15, 2013 02:16 pm
Aseel88 User

帖子: 96
入会日期: 29/07/2013

well, it is very good information, it can be very helpful especially for new fxstat traders... thank you for providing it

http://www.fxstat.com/widget/link?t=tiny&c=7&s=19487&o1=growth&o2=drawdown&o3=monthly&o4=equity

Aug 17, 2013 05:26 pm

帖子: 939
入会日期: 21/04/2011

Originally posted by irfan

Very essential aspect indeed. Usually it is ignored while examining activities. It should be seen when u r selecting indication suppliers.

 



Yes exactly. Most of the traders look at profit, drawdown and consistency. But probability of loss is an important factor which is usually ignored. I have seen a few traders here with good profit but high probability of loss which means they r not using good money and risk management techniques.

Stick to your rules

页数: 1