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Forex Trading, Casino Luck or Business Skill

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Feb 10, 2011 01:58 am
#1
expertreview Hostedbeta

帖子: 76
入会日期: 29/07/2010

Although you can find many websites that promise you a huge fortune out of Forex trading without moving even a finger, keep this in mind: for someone to win in a Forex, there has to be another one who losses.

A key lesson for any beginner in Forex trading is not to let himself fooled by making a lucky trade. If he thinks that if he won once he will always win, he is in for a big disappointment. The fact is he just got lucky.

If you manage to have a long-term profit and your percentage of winning trades is higher than your losses, then you can consider you are on the right track. Many times you will find yourself in the situation that you bought a currency and, after a certain period, it starts to depreciate. Is it a retracement or a turning point? That’s the question you have to ask yourself every time this happens. Many times currencies fall because of some market noise, something that will soon disappear and that you should completely ignore.

If you let this noise overwhelm you, you will have only things to lose, as it can lead you to panic selling. The only thing you have to listen to is the system you built. The technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis, along with a coherent system will many times offer the answer to the question if you should or should not close a position. If you want to make big profits out of Forex trading, probably this is one of the most valuable lessons you need to learn.

There’s no solution for becoming a successful trader over night. Only the experience will teach you what you need to know. Although many Internet searches will offer you the biggest profit of your life or huge money without any effort, a smart person will always know that only by continuing to trade, to analyse his activity and learn new skills he can actually become rich.

Feb 10, 2011 01:54 pm
paradise User

帖子: 75
入会日期: 01/12/2010

Nice post man! Despite all the warnings, there will always be noobs that comes to this market thinking they can make millions in few months. It's always good to prevent them but in the end there should be people that loose in this market.

Sep 06, 2011 11:11 pm

帖子: 513
入会日期: 08/02/2011

Originally posted by paradise

Nice post man! Despite all the warnings, there will always be noobs that comes to this market thinking they can make millions in few months. It's always good to prevent them but in the end there should be people that loose in this market.



yaa iam also agree with you dear these peoples comes with lot of greed and need of life and they start forex with this greed and loss more than they effort

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Sep 07, 2011 04:02 am
ironical User

帖子: 734
入会日期: 22/04/2011

The main point is not "How to remove greediness?"

Greed is present in all humans. Its level is different in each person but we cannot deny the "greed factor". The reality about forex is true that it is one of the faster methods to earn with an equal or maybe higher chance of loosing. Its impossible to remove "greediness" but excess of it is a bad thing. When we analyze someone's statements and look at drawdowns and etc. It tells us how riskily is he trading. More risk means more greed of wealth. Sensible trading will always limit ur losses.

So the main point is that "Can u control your greediness level?"

The good or ill of a man lies within his own will. – Epictetus

Sep 07, 2011 03:09 pm
leebut User

帖子: 158
入会日期: 16/07/2011

Firstly, there’s no such thing as luck. Secondly, drawdowns to not necessarily mean the trader is trading with more risk.

Point 1) Just like difficulty, luck is a word of convenience. The fact that a new trader wins their first trade is not luck. It is a matter of them making the decision to enter the market at a particular time and direction. The fact they chose the correct time and direction is not luck. If 'luck' is being applied then every win in the future will be down to luck and every loss bad luck. I got stopped out on a trade by 0.00004 of a PIP before prices traded down to the target. That wasn't bad luck, it was just that I had decided to put my stop 0.00004 too close to where the market decided to go.

'Luck' as people call it is simply a positive or negative result of decision making. It's either the right one or the wrong one. A person winning a lottery jackpot is not lucky. They simply chose the same numbers that were drawn. Nothing more, nothing less. They may not win again, but it does not mean that they are unlucky for the rest of their lives. Another example is the 'lucky mascot'. Someone goes to support their team for the first time, the team wins. People might say that the new supporter brought the team good luck. Of course not! One team played better than the other. Both teams may have a lucky mascot, yet both teams didn't win. It doesn't mean the losing team's mascot is now unlucky.

Traders are not lucky or unlucky, regardless of whether it's a novice or professional making the trade. It's all the effect of a simple decision: buy or sell. You wouldn't tell a professional trader that if they made £100,000 in a day that they were lucky. That would be the same of saying that they have no/little trading competence and a magical force, not the market moved prices in a favourable direction. So, if the manager of a sports team says that they were lucky to win the game, he/she may as well say that they were crap, have no talent and somehow an invisible 'lucky' force made them win.    

 

Point 2) A trader can trade with 1-5% of his/her account, which is good money management and still get huge drawdowns. They can trade the same winning strategy, but market conditions change and the strategy becomes ineffective. The level of risk on the trade is the same, the strategy is the same; the market, however, is not. Small losses soon add up to become chunk of an account in the toilet. You may see the drawdown, but don't automatically assume that they are trading with more risk per trade or taking on riskier trades. Stats can only tell us so much. It may be that the trader is still learning but uses a live account to expose them to the full effects of trading rather than being cosy on a riskless and therefore emotionless demo account.

Sep 07, 2011 05:23 pm
Sasha User

帖子: 836
入会日期: 16/05/2011

I have to disagree with your first point.

Lets assume a novice enters a trade and wins. Did he know that it was the right time to enter? He can only know when he wins. But before entering a trade he doesnt know it. So basically most of the beginners and novice traders enter and exit without any logic. This winning is known as "luck".

Even the most professional trader scannot predict the market with 100% accuracy. But they are predicting it to some extent. So they r trading with their skills + luck. Novice traders base more than 95% on luck and less than 5% on their knowledge.

Whenever u do something where you dont know what will happen and you are hoping for the best then you r depending purely on luck.

Sep 07, 2011 07:50 pm
leebut User

帖子: 158
入会日期: 16/07/2011

Originally posted by Sasha

I have to disagree with your first point.

Lets assume a novice enters a trade and wins. Did he know that it was the right time to enter? He can only know when he wins. But before entering a trade he doesnt know it. So basically most of the beginners and novice traders enter and exit without any logic. This winning is known as "luck".

Even the most professional trader scannot predict the market with 100% accuracy. But they are predicting it to some extent. So they r trading with their skills + luck. Novice traders base more than 95% on luck and less than 5% on their knowledge.

Whenever u do something where you dont know what will happen and you are hoping for the best then you r depending purely on luck.

 



No, luck does not exist. Things happen because of the decisions we and others make not a mystical power. If I were to get a hole in one at golf, that's not luck. It happened that I hit the ball with the correct amount of force at the correct angle. that's all.

Winning the jackpot on a slot machine is not luck. It is putting your money in at the pre-determined point in the machine's control routines. The fact that the previous player left one spin before the jackpot does not make him/her unlucky. It was just a matter of timing and the DECISION not to continue playing. Nothing more, nothing less.

People that look for luck will not find it. Someone I work with mentioned a sports personality who was told that he was lucky. The response was, 'Yes, and the more I practice the luckier I get". That sums it up nicely.

'luck' is used to mask jealousy, put people down and is used as an excuse when things go wrong. Someone who gets a margin call is not unlucky, they simply made trading errors.

Sep 15, 2011 09:32 am
megrawab Hostedslavebeta

帖子: 332
入会日期: 16/08/2011

I can't decide whether there is luck or not but I believe it is still a factor (though may be small). It combines with efforts and god deeds.

I am a hosted slave beta.

Apr 16, 2012 03:32 am

帖子: 74
入会日期: 07/04/2012

when you want ot gamble you will only need to learn a few things may help you.but forex is a total business and very complicated and requires hard work.there is no way to compare two of them.we need both fundamental and tecnical knowledge to be successful in forex.while in gambling is pure luck.

Apr 18, 2012 02:45 pm
mrinalini User

帖子: 177
入会日期: 12/04/2012

Forex trading is much different than gambilng and it is a serious business or a trade. It is not about gambling in a casino and it requires skills and abilities , good mindset and right attitude to trade in forex .

Apr 20, 2012 06:43 pm
FXlord User

帖子: 75
入会日期: 07/04/2012

Originally posted by expertreview
There’s no solution for becoming a successful trader over night. Only the experience will teach you what you need to know. Although many Internet searches will offer you the biggest profit of your life or huge money without any effort, a smart person will always know that only by continuing to trade, to analyse his activity and learn new skills he can actually become rich.


However, if a trader think it is easy to make quick money on the forex market, he should first start by developing the intrinsic qualities of successful traders who are methodical, organized, patient and realistic.

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