Eur/usd 23rd May 2012
Just running some thoughts on eurusd - we hear all the greek news about them leaving and eur/usd is taking a hammering. Most people considering it will hit the floor, and the equivalent balance books of ECB and Fed would have fair price of 1.2-1.22 - but on the other side we have
- commercials at record long size (they have been building up their positions)
- traders at at record shorts (are the commercials going to let them take record amounts of money?)
- multiyear lows
- greek people are unlikely to vote for a party that gets them booted out of the euro
Any thoughts?
Ok, surprisingly no replies?
Anyway: today eurousd broke new lows touching the 1.25 exotic option - and thats a drop from 1.328 (780 pips) without much of a pullback. USDCAD also topped at 1.030, breaking both options. The US dollar however failed to make much of a high at the time. All other major currencies did not make lows against the USD. It indicates to me that traders are unwilling to buy more US dollar (for the moment), so it seems that there may be a pause or pullback in the trend here.
Originally posted by CFXsignalsJust running some thoughts on eurusd - we hear all the greek news about them leaving and eur/usd is taking a hammering. Most people considering it will hit the floor, and the equivalent balance books of ECB and Fed would have fair price of 1.2-1.22 - but on the other side we have
- commercials at record long size (they have been building up their positions)
- traders at at record shorts (are the commercials going to let them take record amounts of money?)
- multiyear lows
- greek people are unlikely to vote for a party that gets them booted out of the euro
Any thoughts?
Well, this matter has become much more critical and worst now. They need some miraculous reforms. Other euro countries are not going to help in this matter. Most of the countries have already refused any such "helpish" things. A couple of months back I read a statement from UK prime minister saying that uk cannot do it at the cost of pound.
Yes, most people are now saying down to 1.18 for the euro - but who knows if they are right - will they be happy to give money away to bears now?
Originally posted by CFXsignalsYes, most people are now saying down to 1.18 for the euro - but who knows if they are right - will they be happy to give money away to bears now?
It may or may not be a faster bearish trend. Different people have different opinions on how fast will it come down. But the fact is that majority is sure about its decline. There was a time when it was 1.49 and now it is back to 1.25 with almost no chances of going back up.
Overall yeah, the euro has been in a gradual downtrend for about year, with usually 3 month sell off phases. I'll be interested to see what happens next week.
Well, it seems I was wrong with thinking that it was a bottom -not even consolidating - well done to anyone who shorted this.