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Forex Daily Analysis

Feb 16, 2011 01:38 pm
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Swiss franc falls against euro, sterling extends losses on BoE inflation report

Swiss franc fell after the government said it wants to make steps to deal with a strong currency, while sterling dropped after Bank of England dashed expectations of a near-term rate hike. The Swiss government said it wants to make steps in order to deal with a strong currency that is not helping exporters. The euro suddenly went up against the Swiss franc from a low of 1.3012 CHF to 1.3130 CHF, later trading at 1.3080 CHF, up 0.29% on the day. The British pound dropped after the Bank of England inflation report sent signals that dashed investors’ expectations of a near-term rate hike. BoE said rate hikes “will be more gradual than expected”, although the central bank reassessed its inflation expectations. "Inflation is likely to pick up to between 4% and 5% in the near term and to remain well above the 2% target over the next year or so," the committee said. Despite a 4% inflation rate in January and higher inflation rate forecasts that would ask for a higher interest rate than the current record low of 0.5%, BoE said economic growth is expected to be weaker. The sterling lost 0.55% against the dollar, trading at 1.6026 USD, from a high of 1.6185 USD reached before the report. The British pound fell also against the euro. The 17-nation single currency slipped against the dollar to 1.3478 USD after heavy Asian buying had taken the euro to a high of 1.3570 USD. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.17%, at 78.70. Against the Japanese yen the dollar rose 0.1%, to a high of 83.81 JPY. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell after rating agency Moody’s put on review the countries' banks for a possible downgrade, but soon started to recover. The Aussie was up 0.23%, trading at 0.9980 USD, after reaching a high of 1.0018 USD, while the Kiwi won 0.21%, to 63.06 USD.

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Feb 17, 2011 10:06 am
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The euro edged lower in European morning session, while the British pound was gaining ground against the dollar as a BoE member suggested the need of rate hikes to tackle inflation. The euro fell in early European trading to 1.3537 USD from a high of 1.3608 USD. After a short rebound, the single currency was trading later at 1.3563 USD, still down 0.03%. The euro has been gaining ground against the dollar in the last days, on stronger Asian demand. Also, Thursday news that rising tension in the Middle East, as Israel said two Iranian warships planned to sail through the Suez Canal on their way to Syria, put pressure on the dollar. The US bond yields have stabilized as Fed minutes showed an increase of the economic growth outlook, which made the greenback less attractive. The British pound went up against the dollar, reaching a high of 1.6133 USD, up 0.21% from 1.6077 USD, after BoE member Andrew Sentance suggested the need of tighter monetary policies to curb inflation. The pound dropped on Thursday, after Bank of England stated during the inflation report that rate hikes “will be more gradual than expected” due to slower economic evolution forecast, although the central bank reassessed upwards its inflation expectations. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.03%, at 78.20. Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.17%, trading at 83.52 JPY.

Feb 17, 2011 01:27 pm
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Dollar steadies against rivals, ahead January CPI figures

The dollar was steady against major currencies at American session opening, ahead of CPI figures. Analysts forecast CPI at 0.3% MoM and 1.6% YoY. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies stood at 78.22. Against the yen, the dollar fell as low as 83.49 JPY, but was trading at 83.60 JPY, up 0.1% at the American session opening. The euro fell in early European trading to 1.3537 USD from a high of 1.3608 USD. After a short rebound, the single currency was trading later around the 1.3555 USD level. Rating agency Moody’s placed German Commerzbank on review for possible downgrade, which weighed on the euro. The euro has been gaining ground against the dollar in the last days, on stronger Asian demand. Also, Wednesday news that rising tension in the Middle East, as Israel said two Iranian warships planned to sail through the Suez Canal on their way to Syria, put pressure on the dollar. The US bond yields have stabilized as Fed minutes showed an increase of the economic growth outlook, which made the greenback less attractive. On the other hand, Middle East tensions supported the safe-haven Swiss franc. The euro was down 0.37%, against the franc, to 1.2966 CHF, and the dollar fell 0.32%, trading at 0.9561 CHF. The British pound went up against the dollar, reaching a high of 1.6146 USD, up 0.3% from a low of 1.6077 USD, after BoE member Andrew Sentance suggested the need of tighter monetary policies to curb inflation. Later, it was steady around 1.6126 USD, up 0.22% on the day. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, Sentence said the central bank's inflation forecast was "too optimistic" on the medium term. The pound dropped on Thursday, after Bank of England stated at its inflation report that rate hikes “will be more gradual than expected” due to slower economic evolution forecast, although the central bank reassessed upwards its inflation expectations.

Feb 18, 2011 09:55 am
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Euro steady against the dollar, sterling up after short fall

The euro steadied against the dollar after edging lower in Asian trading and first European trading hours, while the British pound continued to rise on hawkish comments coming from a BoE official. The euro fell from a high of 1.3628 USD as low as 1.3574 USD, where it steadied at the opening of London session. The euro has been lately accentuated gains against the greenback, although the analysts say there is not a solid argument for the trend. The sovereign debt problem is still unsolved and officials will not reach a conclusion until the end of March. Also, bond yields are going higher, like in the case of Portugal, and European Central Bank (ECB) has dashed expectations of a rate hike. On the other hand, US bond yields are lower, which decreases investors’ appetite for investing and buying the dollar, while tensions in the Middle East are heading investors towards safe-haven currencies, like the Swiss franc. On focus is G20 Summit of finance ministers that starts on Friday in Paris, where talks about currencies are also expected to arise. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other currencies, was flat at 78.08. Against the yen, the dollar rose suddenly to a high of 83.48 JPY at the London session opening from a low of 83.24 JPY. The dollar started to recover its lost ground also against the Swiss franc and was trading at 0.9531 CHF, up 0.33%, up from a low of 0.9492 CHF. The euro was also up against the Swiss franc, reaching 1.2937 CHF from lows of 1.2908 CHF. The British pound was up against the dollar after loosing some ground during Asian trading. It was trading at 1.6213 USD, up 0.27%. The British pound has been supported since Thursday by hawkish comments coming from Bank of England member Andrew Sentence, who suggested the need of tighter monetary policies to curb inflation. The sterling had fell before to a low of 1.6077 USD due to the inflation report where BoE stated that rate hikes “will be more gradual than expected”.

Feb 18, 2011 01:32 pm
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Euro up strongly against the dollar, after ECB Bini Smaghi comments

The euro went up strongly against the dollar on Friday after a Bloomberg report that quoted ECB official Lorenzo Bini Smaghi saying the central bank may tighten policy as price pressures mount. The euro rose suddenly against the US dollar to a high of 1.3645 USD, erasing losses after falling as low as 1.3546 USD. G20 Summit of finance ministers started on Friday in Paris, Canadian Finance Minister stating that the summit stands a reasonable chance of reaching an agreement on indicators that will be used to measure and correct global economic imbalances, according to Reuters. The euro has been lately accentuated gains against the greenback, although the analysts said there hasn’t been a solid argument for the trend. The sovereign debt problem is still unsolved and officials will not reach a conclusion until the end of March. Also, bond yields are going higher, like in the case of Portugal where five-year bond yields reached a historical euro record of 7.192% on Friday, while European Central Bank (ECB) has dashed expectations of a rate hike. Against the Swiss franc, the euro was trading as high as 1.2937 CHF, up 0.44%, from a low of 1.2896 CHF. The safe-haven Swiss franc was up against the euro and the dollar during the last days, supported by increasing tensions in the Middle East. The British pound has seen some support from stronger than expected retail sales, after loosing some ground during the first part of the day. It reached a high of 1.6237 USD, up 0.37% from a low of 1.6149 USD. Retail sails jumped in January 5.3% on an yearly basis, above expectations of 4.3%, and monthly sales were up 1.6% in comparison with forecasts of 0.2% and a decrease of 1% the month before. The British pound has been supported since Thursday also by hawkish comments coming from Bank of England member Andrew Sentence, who suggested the need of tighter monetary policies to curb inflation. The Canadian dollar edged higher on Friday against the greenback before inflation data was published. Canada’s annual inflation eased to 2.3% in January from 2.4% in December. The dollar fell to 0.9820 CAD before data, but soon recovered lost ground and was trading at 0.9835 CAD, still down 0.1%. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other currencies, was down 0.14%, at 77.89.
Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 82.41 JPY, up 0.16%, after reaching a low of 83.24 JPY. The dollar started to recover its lost ground also against the Swiss franc and was trading at 0.9514 CHF, up 0.26%, after reaching a high of 0.9538 CHF.

Feb 21, 2011 09:55 am
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Euro down against the dollar after strong rebound

The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday after a rebound due to an ECB official commenting on possible rate hikes due to rising inflation. The euro fell during early Asian trading from a high of 1.3727 USD to 1.3663 USD. After trading above 1.37 USD for a very short period in early European trading, the single currency was again loosing ground against the dollar, trading at 1.3667 USD. The euro rebounded after European Central Bank (ECB) official Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said mounting prices are putting pressure on the monetary policy and the central bank is ready to raise interest rates to tackle inflation. The British pound also fell on Monday after reaching highs of 1.6260 USD due to hawkish comments coming from Bank of England member Andrew Sentence, who suggested the need of tighter monetary policy to curb inflation. BoE kept the key rate unchanged at its record level of 0.5% at its last meeting. The sterling was trading at 1.6215 USD. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.10% at 77.74. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.12%, trading at 83.16 JPY. Both the euro and the dollar rose against the Swiss franc, after rising tensions in the Middle East had pushed investors towards the safe-haven currency. On Monday, the dollar was buying 0.9480 CHF, up 0.55%, while the euro was trading at 1.2963 CHF, up 0.31%.

Feb 21, 2011 01:44 pm
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Euro extends losses against dollar

The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday with rising tensions in the Middle East after a recent strong climb due to an ECB official commenting on possible rate hikes due to rising inflation. 
 The euro fell from a high of 1.3727 USD as low as 1.3655 USD and it was trading around 1.3663 USD later, down 0.27%. The euro rebounded at the end of the last week after European Central Bank (ECB) official Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said mounting prices are putting pressure on the monetary policy and the central bank is ready to raise interest rates to tackle inflation. 
 The British pound also fell on Monday. It had reached a high of 1.6260 USD due to hawkish comments coming from Bank of England member Andrew Sentence, who suggested the need of tighter monetary policy to curb inflation. BoE kept the key rate unchanged at its record level of 0.5% at its last meeting. The sterling was trading on Monday at 1.6225 USD, down 0.2%, after reaching a low of 1.6202 USD.
 The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.10% at 77.74. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.12%, trading at 83.17 JPY. 
 Both the euro and the dollar rose against the Swiss franc, after rising tensions in the Middle East had pushed investors towards the safe-haven currency. On Monday, the dollar was buying 0.9481 CHF, up 0.55%, while the euro was trading at 1.2954 CHF, up 0.25%, after reaching a high of 1.2977 CHF.

Feb 22, 2011 10:19 am
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Euro down on mounting Middle East concerns, Kiwi hit by New Zealand earthquake

The euro fell against the dollar and the Swiss franc with higher tensions in the Middle East, while New Zealand dollar dipped against the greenback due to a strong earthquake that hit the country. The euro lost ground against the dollar and Swiss franc as investors are heading their attention towards safer currencies due to political tensions in Libya. The euro fell from 1.3684 USD as low as 1.3524 USD. The single currency recovered some of the lost ground in European morning session, but was soon down again, trading at 1.3552 USD. The euro had climbed against the dollar to a high of 1.3727 due to comments made by European Central Bank (ECB) official Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, who said that mounting prices are putting pressure on the monetary policy and that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates to tackle inflation. The British pound also dipped against the dollar falling from 1.6227 USD to a low of 1.6131 USD. After a short rebound in early European session, it was trading at 1.6143 USD. The sterling has been lately supported by the hawkish statements of Bank of England Monetary Policy members. New Zealand dollar also fell against the dollar near a two-month low, due to an earthquake that hit the country’s second biggest city. The Kiwi was trading at 0.7460 USD, down 2.22%. Higher risk aversion lead investors also to sell the euro for the safe-haven Swiss franc. The single currency fell against the Swiss franc 1,1%, to 1.2805, while the dollar was little changed against the safe-haven. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.60%, at 78.16. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slipped 0.23%, to 82.93 JPY, while the euro dipped 1.1%, to 112.45 JPY.

Feb 22, 2011 03:17 pm
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Euro pares early losses after BCE March hawkish comments The euro pared early Tuesday losses against the dollar after hawkish comments made by European Central Bank board member Yves March, the single currency gaining some of its lost ground also against the Swiss franc. The euro went back near levels of 1.37 USD after a steep fall due to mounting concerns about Middle East tensions. It had fallen as low as 1.3524 USD before ECB board member Yves March interview with Bloomberg TV. Yves said the central bank may have to adjust its view on inflation at the next monetary policy meeting at the beginning of March as price pressures intensify. ECB policy makers Juergen Stark and Lorenzo Bini Smagh have also been quoted recently making hawkish remarks. The euro was later trading at 1.3677 USD, flat on the day, but markets are still keeping their attention focused also on the Middle East events, which have prompted investors this week to seek refuge in the dollar and Swiss franc. Euro recovered part of its losses also against the Swiss franc, trading at 1.2878 CHF, after hitting a low of 1.2790 CHF. The British pound was steady against the dollar at 1.6165 USD, after hitting a low of 1.6131 in early Tuesday trading. The New Zealand dollar was trading at 0.7500 USD, after falling as low as 0.7455 USD due to a devastating earthquake that hit the country’s second largest city killing at least 65 people. The dollar index was down 0.02%, at 77.67. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slipped to a low of 82.77 JPY, but was later recovering and trading at 83.18 JPY.

Feb 23, 2011 10:16 am
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Sterling up after BoE minutes, euro continues rise on hawkish ECB comments The British pound was rising against the dollar on Wednesday after the policy minutes of the Bank of England, while the euro continued to gain ground against the greenback on hawkish ECB comments. The BoE minutes showed a more hawkish view than expected, with a 6-3 split in favour of raising interest rates at the February monetary policy meeting. The British pound rose to a high of 1.6270 USD from a day’s low of 1.6132 USD and was later trading at 1.6232 USD, still up 0.6% on the day. The euro was supported also by hawkish comments, coming from the European Central Bank (ECB). On Tuesday, ECB board member Yves March said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the central bank might need to adjust its view on inflation at the next monetary policy meeting at the beginning of March as price pressures intensify. ECB policy makers Juergen Stark and Lorenzo Bini Smagh have also been quoted recently making hawkish remarks. The single currency was up 0.39%, trading at 1.3705 USD, after reachiong a high of 1.3735 USD. However, the euro is still vulnerable to news coming from Middle East, where increasing tensions may lead investors to seek refuge in safer currencies. Against the safe-haven Swiss franc, the euro recovered though some of the losses and was up 0.32%, at 1.2852 CHF. The dollar index was down 0.24% on Wednesday, at 77.59. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slipped to a low of 82.51 JPY, but was later trading 82.73 JPY.