DAXstability market comments
Hello everyone,
hope you are doing well. I want to use this place to post some of my views on the market (primarily equities) in the future. I am looking forward to make contact with you!
Today the equities rallied again. Nevertheless I would be very careful. I primarily trade the DAX and it seems quite overextended and I do not expect very strong overall trends this year. On the other hand you should never forget the underlying long bias in equities (blue chips, indexes, value stocks even more than growth stocks on a risk adjusted base). So these two views should be balanced.
When something is contradictory we need more information. Let's look at the volatility. It tends to slow down in uptrends (not always!). It has dropped sharply over at least three days. In quantitative terms this is a coin toss situation (will it fall/ will it rise further) - but it has some downward leg. The average win in these situation is 3 to 5 times higher. So be careful when you are long in a stock or index and perhaps look for a sharp drop within the next five business days.
http://de.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VXO#symbol=^VXO;range=6m
Best regards
DAX
60% fundamental | 40% technical || 40% automated | 60% manual
Your performance looks good.
This thread will be very helpful for forum users here especially those who want to trade equities and indexes.
The good or ill of a man lies within his own will. – Epictetus
That's good.
So how frequent will you post comments on equities performance.
@ironical
Thanks. I am still a student of the markets - I am afraid that will remain...
@champ
Depends on the situation. I think at least once a month.
60% fundamental | 40% technical || 40% automated | 60% manual
Hello everyone, what has happened so far:
Dax_h1 - after consolidating (1) we saw a first attempt to break to the downside (2). This resulted in a relocation of the consolidation zone. I took profits when the move looked weak on smaller timeframes. I get risk averse very fast when I have doubts - no problem to miss a move the market will be there tomorrow. We saw a spike to the upside misleading to go long (3) followed by the expected push to the downside (4). It was a quite weak push, leaving an open gap and the upper timeframes are next to the sentiment still bullish. I took prfits at the next support (5).
Dax_h4 - we are now in a larger consolidation zone (6). Perhaps I'll trade within that zone or I'll stay neutral - a huge benefit of a retail trader! We've seen now a push down so as everything else is still bullish we might see a continuation to the upside. Trade safe until the situation gets more appealing.
Cheers
60% fundamental | 40% technical || 40% automated | 60% manual
Hello everyone,
the current shift to riskless assets is a bit of a overreactionin my view. It's a temporary shock due to the crisis in Ukraine and russia moving troops because they fear a loss of influence. This move has nothing to do with the current economic outlook. I won't play against the market but I think as soon as the situation in Ukraine stabilizes we will see rising prices again. Last sunday Putin already agreed with a negoiation trial.
The situation in the Ukraine has never been an easy one - never really belonging to russia or europe. But both nations missunderstood that the ukraine could have been an intermediary between them.
Best regards
60% fundamental | 40% technical || 40% automated | 60% manual
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-wouldnt-sell-shares-on-ukraine-news-2014-03-03?mod=latestnewssocialflow&link=sfmw
nevertheless... never fall in love with an opinion...
60% fundamental | 40% technical || 40% automated | 60% manual