Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 01 2013

Monti: EU budget must support growth and jobs creation

Italian PM Mario Monti had a busy meeting agenda on Thursday, first speaking in Brussels with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, then flying to Berlin where he appeared at a press conference together with Chancellor Angela Merkel. In Germany Monti commented on the next EU long-term budget saying that it shouldn’t focus solely on austerity but rather on “boosting growth, jobs and social cohesion in Europe.” He also added that Italy’s contribution, the largest of all EU countries in 2011, is disproportional relative to the country’s wealth and that budget rebates should be reassessed to be more “transparent and fair.” European officials will begin negotiations on the 2014-2020 EU budget on 7-8 February.

A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody's rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014. As ekathimerini notes: "In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01022013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-01 09:53 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
2013-02-01 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar
2013-02-01 13:30 GMT | United States. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
2013-02-01 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-01 05:44 GMT | USD/JPY to trend higher - RBS
2013-02-01 04:57 GMT | AUD/USD threatens weekly lows around 1.0380
2013-02-01 04:35 GMT | EUR/JPY skyrockets above 125, highest in 33 months
2013-02-01 02:43 GMT | AUD/JPY stalling ahead of the 96 round


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36329 LOW 1.35718 BID 1.36228 ASK 1.36232 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 05:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.3633 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.3652 (R2) and 1.3671 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed between the 10 sma and 20 sma, where the market might face supportive measures. The breaking lower from the trend line support would open road towards to initial targets at 1.3580 (S2) and 1.3559 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3633, 1.3652, 1.3671
Support Levels: 1.3599, 1.3580, 1.3559

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5877 LOW 1.58454 BID 1.58736 ASK 1.58746 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 05:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Current market installation is clearly states uptrend development on the medium-term perspective. Break above the local high at 1.5878 (R1) is required to generate new peaks and expose our intraday targets at 1.5895 (R2) and 1.5912 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to reduce long positions and that might stimulate corrective extension below the support at 1.5855 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.5837 (S2) and then 1.5817 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5878, 1.5895, 1.5912
Support Levels: 1.5855, 1.5837, 1.5817

-----------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.263 LOW 91.605 BID 92.168 ASK 92.173 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 05:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside rally remains in power. As for technical levels, our next resistance level locates at 92.29 (R1). If market gains momentum and manage to overcome it, we expect further price acceleration towards to next targets at 92.51 (R2) and 92.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation ahead prior volatility increase due to the many macroeconomic data releases today. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 91.86 (S1) with next expected target at 91.64 (S2). Any further decline would then be limited to final support at 91.40 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 92.29, 92.51, 92.72
Support Levels: 91.86, 91.64, 91.40

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Currency Converter | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 04 2013

Spanish PM faces calls to resign; scandal to destabilize Europe’s calm waters?

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy continues to face growing criticism after the scandal which hit his party earlier last week, in which allegations were made about illegal payments received by himself and what appear to be a very large list of members from the party he presides. As it is logical on the political circus, it only took a few days until the main Socialist opposition party asked the Prime Minister to step down. As Bloomberg reports, citing opposition leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba during a press conference on Sunday, only a day after Rajoy also made a public appearance to remain still on denial: Rubalcaba: “Rajoy should resign to make way for another prime minister who can re-establish the strength, credibility and stability that Spain needs,” “Spain needs a strong, credible, and trustworthy government.”

The data unveiled by the top selling Spanish newspaper El Pais over alleged illegal donations to key political figures such as Rajoy has sparkled a very tense environment. The numbers published by El Pais show payments over an 11-year period to Mariano Rajoy worth around 25,000 euros each year from a private fund set up by Barcenas, former PP Treasure and main person accused in the scandal. From Bloomberg: “In a recession of this magnitude, the worst thing that can happen to the Spanish economy is a political scandal,” said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at Intermoney SA in Madrid. “This is a theme that is going to be in the spotlight for a while and could undermine investor confidence if not addressed quickly.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...ruary-04-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-04 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Jan)
2013-02-04 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb)
2013-02-04 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-04 15:00 GMT | United States. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)

Forex News
2013-02-04 05:33 GMT | EUR/USD – How long till loyal buyers take it to 1.38/1.40?
2013-02-04 04:12 GMT | AUD/JPY stalls ahead of fresh 4-year highs below 97.00
2013-02-04 02:53 GMT | EUR/AUD retreats from 1.3117 session highs
2013-02-04 01:35 GMT | GBP/NZD prints historic lows below 1.8550



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-----------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.36596 | LOW: 1.36185 | BID: 1.36232 | ASK: 1.36239 | CHANGE: -0.12% | TIME: 08:47:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD bounced back after the last week appreciation however stabilization above the next resistance level at 1.3641 (R1) might provide market with sufficient bullish power to attack next targets at 1.3658 (R2) and 1.3676 (R3). Downwards scenario: At the moment pair is trading on the negative territory and break through support level at 1.3615 (S1) is likely scenario for today en route towards to our intraday targets at 1.3597 (S2) and 1.3580 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3641, 1.3658, 1.3676
Support Levels: 1.3615, 1.3597, 1.3580

---------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.57101 | LOW: 1.56905 | BID: 1.56979 | ASK: 1.56990 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08:47:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe but recently moved in sideways mode. Above the resistance level at 1.5725 (R1) is possible retracement development. Violation here might expose next intraday targets at 1.5742 (R2) and 1.5758 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday’s losses are pointing to a negative market sentiment. Breach of our key support level at 1.5686 (S1) might trigger further downside expansion towards to our next targets at 1.5670 (S2) and 1.5654 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5725, 1.5742, 1.5758
Support Levels: 1.5686, 1.5670, 1.5654

-----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.9 | LOW: 92.491 | BID: 92.609 | ASK: 92.614 | CHANGE: -0.25% | TIME: 08:47:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY maintained upside rally and currently remains stable above the 20 SMA. Further price appreciation is limited to the next resistance level at 92.82 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets above the local peak at 92.98 (R2) and higher one at 93.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the 20 SMA and clearance of our next support level at 92.48 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery formation, targeting 92.29 (R2) and 92.10 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.82, 92.98, 93.13
Support Levels: 92.48, 92.29, 92.10

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 05 2013

Merkel offers support to Spanish government under fire

Spanish President Mariano Rajoy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a joint press conference on Monday in Berlin, during which the Chancellor assured she had not lost confidence in the governing Spanish People’s Party, which currently faces corruption allegations. “We have a relation of full trust in the Spanish government... I have the impression that the whole Spanish government is working to drive down unemployment, to push through structural reforms,” the Chancellor said. Mariano Rajoy assured that his government is stable and that the People’s Party might take legal action against those who leaked documents which allegedly prove that the party received undeclared money. Later the Spanish president went on to describe the reforms already implemented in order to halt the debt crisis and said that new measures, aimed at boosting growth, will be announced shortly. Angela Merkel expressed confidence that the reforms will soon “bear fruit” and promised cooperation on bringing down youth unemployment in Spain by facilitating internships and apprenticeships in Germany for young Spaniards.

London session ahead will bring UK Services PMI data at 09:30 GMT, expected to come slightly lower than 50, level that indicates economic expansion, at 49.8, for second month in a row, for first time since early 2011. GBP is one of strongest currency among majors for last trading hours, even stronger than Yen or CAD, the two other strongest majors for last hours.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05022013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-05 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Services PMI (Jan)
2013-02-05 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Jan)
2013-02-05 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-05 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-05 05:59 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5750 ahead of London open
2013-02-05 05:55 GMT | Time for a meaningful correction in EUR/USD?
2013-02-05 05:02 GMT | AUD/NZD capped below 1.24 following RBA
2013-02-05 04:28 GMT | EUR/AUD above 1.2950 on RBA rates unch



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35202 LOW 1.34812 BID 1.34845 ASK 1.34851 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 07:59:02



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Discounted value of the EURUSD might face next immediate resistive barrier at 1.3510 (R1). Any price appreciation above it would suggest next resistances at 1.3531 (R2) and 1.3552 (S3) as recovery targets. Downwards scenario: Instrument maintained clear downtrend formation by trading on the negative territory. Key resistive bastion lie at 1.3476 (S1). Weakening below it would enable expected targets at 1.3457 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3510, 1.3531, 1.3552
Support Levels: 1.3476, 1.3457, 1.3437

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57664 LOW 1.57438 BID 1.57576 ASK 1.57586 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 07:59:03



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Hourly chart frame corrective bounce faces good resistance barrier at 1.5771 (R1) yesterday. Appreciation above it might likely push the pair toward to next targets, located at 1.5782 (R2) and 1.5793 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we can observe that medium-term bias remains negative. Depreciation below the support level at 1.5743 (S1) would open route towards to initial targets at 1.5731 (S2) and 1.5719 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5771, 1.5782, 1.5793
Support Levels: 1.5743, 1.5731, 1.5719

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.56 LOW 91.978 BID 92.365 ASK 92.371 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 07:59:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the correction mode after the initial uptrend development. Fresh peak formed today offers a good resistance level at 92.58 (R1). Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 92.80 (R2) and 93.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next attractive level for the downside expansion locates at 92.18 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to initial targets at 91.97 (S2) and 91.75 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 92.58, 92.80, 93.03
Support Levels: 92.18, 91.97, 91.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Account | Forex Software | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 06 2013

Hollande: The Eurozone crisis is now largely behind us

Eurozone political group leaders, together with French President François Hollande and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso gathered at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday to discuss the future of the European Union and the Eurozone, the economic crisis and the EU budget for 2014 to 2020. President Hollande spoke about the necessity of creating an exchange rate policy for the Eurozone in order to prevent “irrational movements” of the single currency. He warned that otherwise the euro area might be “subjected to an exchange rate that does not match the true state of its economy.” Hollande also said that the Eurozone debt crisis has been largely overcome, but that nevertheless the Member States should do their utmost to bring down the excessively elevated unemployment in the area. He also pointed out the dangers connected with too much austerity: “The threat we face now is no longer the mistrust of the markets but that of the people.”

For the London session ahead there will only be UK Halifax HPI data at 08:00 GMT before BoE meeting tomorrow, and crude oil inventories at 15:30 GMT coming from the US. Since year started, Cable has lost -3.5% in value against the USD. Since mid January, Pound is weakest currency among majors, only above the Yen, while against Euro, EUR/GBP is back again to recent highs area, last at 0.8674, near 15-month highs level.
http://blog.fxcc.com/12813/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-06 11:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan)
2013-02-06 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. NZ Unemployment Rate (Q4)
2013-02-06 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Dec)

Forex News
2013-02-06 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD quiet above fresh 5-month lows 1.5630
2013-02-06 03:48 GMT | EUR/USD inside its thin trading range 1.3572/96
2013-02-06 02:27 GMT | USD/JPY has a final capitulation feel to it now – RBS
2013-02-06 01:27 GMT | AUD/NZD prints fresh 29-month lows on poor Aus retail sales data



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.35959 | LOW: 1.35609 | BID: 1.35631 | ASK: 1.35637 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08:03:04



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: An hourly chart retracement development continues to pressure the pair towards to next resistance level at 1.3599 (R1). Break above it is required to open way towards to next targets at 1.3619 (R2) and 1.3638 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3555 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3) in case of positive retest here.

Resistance Levels: 1.3599, 1.3619, 1.3638
Support Levels: 1.3555, 1.3536, 1.3517

--------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56656 | LOW: 1.56502 | BID: 1.56525 | ASK: 1.56536 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 08:03:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear downtrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Possibility of correction is seen above the high of the day at 1.5668 (R1). Only clearance here would open route towards to next recovery targets at 1.5683 (R2) and 1.5699 (R3). Downwards scenario: It is undeniable that further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the next support level at 1.5642 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5627 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5611 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5668, 1.5683, 1.5699
Support Levels: 1.5642, 1.5627, 1.5611

------------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.055 | LOW: 93.455 | BID: 93.783 | ASK: 93.788 | CHANGE: 0.16% | TIME: 08:03:06



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Instrument showed excessive strength yesterday and we expect some stabilization ahead. However appreciation above the next resistance at 94.06 (R1) might provide a catalyst for profit taking And expose intraday targets 94.35 (R2) and 94.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: Important support level locates right at 93.54 (S1). Successful retest here would open route towards to next target at 93.24 (S2) and any further decline would then be limited to final support for today at 92.95 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.35, 94.63
Support Levels: 93.54, 93.24, 92.95

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 07 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

Euro bloc faces acute challenges from rival central banks
Much is at stake in the Eurozone should the fabled ‘currency war’ be ultimately waged as the price will be paid in both growth and jobs amidst fresh tensions about the future of the bloc itself. Few would doubt the euro area has been routed in the latest monetary battles between countries printing reserves and depressing home currencies in part to retain an acute trade advantage in a world sapped of growth. In Asia, Japan’s plan to aggressively weaken the yen has been the proverbial warning salvo, however that merely counters the open-ended bond buying and dollar creation by the U.S. Federal Reserve, sterling printing in Britain or even Swiss intervention to cap the franc. It leaves the European Central Bank (ECB) as the last remaining constituent of the “Big Four” reserve currencies still unable or unwilling to generate new cash and sequester its exchange rate over time.

This point was underlined last month by early paybacks on what had been the ECB’s proxy printing plan of cheap long-term loans to euro banks (or LTROs) – repayments, which have lead to an untimely shrinkage of the ECB balance sheet as its economy shrinks, creeping short-term interest rates and a rising euro. In just three short months, the euro has now soared a staggering +20% against Japan’s yen, +8% on sterling and +7% on the US dollar – the latter compounding gains against a host of dollar-pegged, emerging currencies. Last month, ECB chief Mario Draghi pointed out that the euro’s trade-weighted index (TWI) has been better behaved and is still down more than +10% from its 2009 peaks. However, this euro index too has jumped +6% since November and is up almost +9% since Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech in July consequently defused the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...ruary-07-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-07 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
2013-02-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2013-02-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
2013-02-07 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-07 05:34 GMT | Will Draghi encourage EUR/USD run to 1.40?
2013-02-07 05:16 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5630 ahead a busy day
2013-02-07 02:35 GMT | AUD/JPY unchanged around 96.40
2013-02-07 01:10 GMT | Aussie heaviness as worrying as Aus full-time jobs lost


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.35313 | LOW: 1.35033 | BID: 1.35293 | ASK: 1.35299 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08 : 06:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect busy session ahead due to the many important macroeconomic data releases. Upwards extension above the resistance at 1.3545 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 1.3564 (R2) and 1.3584 (R3). Downwards scenario: A failure to clear next resistance barrier would open the way towards the initial support level at 1.3517 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.3497 (S2) and 1.3478 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3545, 1.3564, 1.3584
Support Levels: 1.3517, 1.3497, 1.3478

------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56705 | LOW: 1.56452 | BID: 1.56687 | ASK: 1.56696 | CHANGE: 0.07% | TIME: 08 : 06:42



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break required to spark stronger upside action. Our next resistance level is placed at 1.5679 (R1). Break above it would suggest our next initial targets at 1.5699 (R2) and 1.5718 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome key support level at 1.5644 (S1). Any penetration below this level might determine medium-term negative bias and expose our targets at 1.5625 (S2) and 1.5606 (S3) on the way.

Resistance Levels: 1.5679, 1.5699, 1.5718
Support Levels: 1.5644, 1.5625, 1.5606

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.648 | LOW: 93.294 | BID: 93.603 | ASK: 93.607 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 06:43



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Price action is looking for topside momentum on the medium-term perspective to resume initial upwards formation. Yesterday high offers a key resistive bastion at 94.06 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to initial targets at 94.37 (R2) and 94.67 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if USDJPY depreciates below the next support level at 93.24 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 92.95 (S2) and then aim at 92.64 (S3) for the possible corrective action ahead.

Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.37, 94.67
Support Levels: 93.24, 92.95, 92.64

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 08 2013

ECB's Draghi sees the Eurozone recovering in second half of the year

The ECB Governing Council decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at their December monetary policy meeting. Speaking at the press conference following the meeting ECB head Mario Draghi commented on the considerations underlying the decision. The president suggested that inflation should fall below 2% in the coming months and assured that inflationary pressures should remain contained. He said that economic growth would remain weak in the “early part” of 2013 and recover very gradually, along with the improving situation on financial markets. The recovery would be supported by the ECB's accomodative monetary policy stance, better external demand and easier financial market conditions.

Mario Draghi commented on the the liquidity situation of EU banks, which recently repaid €140.6 billion of the €489.2 billion obtained through LTROs, which reflects the improvement in financial market confidence. He nevertheless urged EU officials to carry on with the reduction of “both fiscal and structural imbalances and proceed with financial sector restructuring measures” which should boost confidence further. When asked about the recent appreciation of the shared currency and whether it could hurt recovery, the ECB chief answered that it could be an indication that confidence in the euro begun improving. He added that the central bank would continue to closely monitor money market developments.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08022013/

2013-02-08 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Dec)
2013-02-08 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | United States. US Trade Balance (Dec)
2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Jan)


2013-02-08 05:17 GMT | Where have all EUR/USD bulls gone?
2013-02-08 04:44 GMT | Long-running EUR/CHF uptrend unlikely - HSBC
2013-02-08 03:25 GMT | Kiwi at 0.87 by year end - BNZ
2013-02-08 01:49 GMT | GBP/JPY off fresh 3-year highs below 148.00

---------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34161 LOW 1.33817 BID 1.33980 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 01:14



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3420 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3447 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3474 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3371 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3346 (S2) and 1.3319 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3420, 1.3447, 1.3474
Support Levels: 1.3371, 1.3346, 1.3319

-----------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH 1.57372 LOW 1.57046 BID 1.57234 ASK 1.57246 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 01:15



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5738 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5754 (R2) and 1.5770 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.5715 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5699 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5738, 1.5754, 1.5770
Support Levels: 1.5715, 1.5699, 1.5681

---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.733 LOW 93.195 BID 93.239 ASK 93.244 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:16



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 93.58 (R1). Next interim target holds at 93.81 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 94.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 93.17 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. As a result our supportive meant at 92.93 (S2) and 92.69 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 93.58, 93.81, 94.05
Support Levels: 93.17, 92.93, 92.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 11 2013

EU leaders reach 7-year budget deal

After more than 24 hours of negotiations, European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, announced Friday that the 27 members of the European Union have reached agreement on the EU budget framework for the next seven years. Van Rompuy’s plan proposed to limit new spending commitments by Brussels to €960 billion, versus the €1.03 trillion originally sought by the European Commission and €12 less than the previous proposal. This way, the 2014-2020 budget agreement involves a €34 billion cut from current budget cycle, set at €994 billion. Analysts interpreted the agreement as a victory for the United Kingdom and net contributors to the EU budget.

It will be the first net reduction to the EU’s long-term budget in the bloc’s history, representing a decrease of around 3%on the last budget and shaving spending in areas from infrastructure to administration and scientific research. Even though the deal is done, the EU budget is not official yet, not until the European Parliament gives its approval, but leading legislators have already expressed opposition. The cuts agreed on Friday fell mainly on spending for cross-border transportation schemes, energy and telecommunications networks as well as the EU officials’ salaries. On the other hand, spending on rural development has been increased by €1.5 billion. While Rajoy welcomed the deal and said it is beneficial for Spain, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said budget deal combines growth and consolidation and it is a good sign for investors. She said all 27 members backed budget agreement.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...ruary-11-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | E.M.U. Eurogroup Meetings
2013-02-11 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
2013-02-11 18:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speech
2013-02-11 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-11 05:47 GMT| EUR/USD faces calls for 1.3250; worst week since late June 2012
2013-02-11 05:08 GMT | GBP/USD frozen around 1.5800 handle
2013-02-11 04:26 GMT | AUD/USD dives under 1.0300
2013-02-11 03:35 GMT | GBP/JPY holding barely above 146.00



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33909 | LOW: 1.33634 | BID: 1.33859 | ASK: 1.33863 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 09:43:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh high of the day recently and turned retail trader’s sentiment to the positive side. Further market rise would then be targeting resistance levels at 1.3408 (R1), 1.3436 (R2) and last one at 1.3462 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation from initial downside extension however. Possible price depreciation is limited to the key support barrier at 1.3351 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to our initial targets 1.3324 (S2) and 1.3298 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3408, 1.3436, 1.3462
Support Levels: 1.3351, 1.3324, 1.3298

-------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.58097 | LOW: 1.57771 | BID: 1.57790 | ASK: 1.57799 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 09:43:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus holds at 1.5821 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive marks at 1.5836 (R2) and 1.5851 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our reference point locates at 1.5791 (S1), decrease below it might enable bearish pressure, targeting 1.5777 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to last support level at 1.5762 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5821, 1.5836, 1.5851
Support Levels: 1.5791, 1.5777, 1.5762

---------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.743 | LOW: 92.357 | BID: 92.600 | ASK: 92.607 | CHANGE: -0.07% | TIME: 09:43:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 92.74 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 92.95 (R2) and then target at 93.17 (R3) acts as last supportive measure for today. Downwards scenario: In favor of bearish market participants market tone remains negative on the medium-term perspective. Our next support level aligns at 92.35 (S1). Price regress below it might encounter downside rally and expose our initial targets at 92.12 (R2) and 91.90 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.74, 92.95, 93.17
Support Levels: 92.35, 92.12, 91.90

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC )

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 13 2013

Obama addresses congress at the SOTU speech

In the State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama addressed the Congress, with the main highlights found below. The text was obtained from Obama’s prepared full text speech and released moments before he came on stage. Obama first emphasized that the generation’s task is to build a strong middle class, which should be achieved through the government working ‘on behalf of the many’ not few. Referring to the soaring deficit, he said proposals will not increase deficit by ‘single dime’, with a government that acts smarter not bigger. Obama said ‘deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan.’

He ordered DHS to develop a real-time cybersecurity response. Obama also called for $1 Bln investment to create 15 manufacturing institutes; calls for overhauling corp tax code. Obama proposed ‘off-shoring tax’ to set minimum on offshore earnings, while also calling for a minimum wage to increase to $9/hour. With regards to the recent nuclear test conducted by North Korea, Obama said US to lead the world in taking firm action in response to North Korean threats, considering to strengthen US missile defense. The President of the US also unveiled plans to strengthen bilateral transatlantic trade deals with the European Union. Obama said: “Tonight, I am announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union – because trade that is free and fair across the Atlantic supports millions of good-paying American jobs.”
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...ruary-13-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-13 10:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
2013-02-13 13:30 GMT | United States. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
2013-02-13 18:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction

Forex News
2013-02-13 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD bulls regain control; break of 1.35 clarifies picture
2013-02-13 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.5700
2013-02-13 04:38 GMT | USD/JPY break of 93.00 allows further losses
2013-02-13 04:23 GMT | AUD/USD breaks to fresh 5-day highs above 1.0350



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34572 | LOW: 1.34375 | BID: 1.34469 | ASK: 1.34476 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 08:07:21



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: next hurdle on the upside penetration is seen above the yesterday high at 1.3475 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to initial targets at 1.3503 (R2) and 1.3532 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive means at 1.3433 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.3407 (S2). Final support for today could be exposed at 1.3381 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3475, 1.3503, 1.3532
Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3381

-------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56885 | LOW: 1.56621 | BID: 1.56834 | ASK: 1.56845 | CHANGE: 0.14% | TIME: 08:07:22



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5688 (R1), keeping the retracement formation intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5707 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5726 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, medium-term tone remains negative and possible depreciation below the support level at 1.5661 (S1) would allow further declines. Our supports levels today lies at 1.5642 (S2) and 1.5623 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5688, 1.5707, 1.5726
Support Levels: 1.5661, 1.5642, 1.5623

---------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.503 | LOW: 92.821 | BID: 93.096 | ASK: 93.100 | CHANGE: -0.40% | TIME: 08:07:23



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: A negative market tone dominates on the hourly chart frame however further buying interest might arise above the key resistance at 93.35 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 93.57 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 93.79 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today limits recovery attempts for now. Next support level stays right below it at 92.81 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 92.60 (S2) en route towards to final aim for today at 92.39 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.57, 93.79
Support Levels: 92.81, 92.60, 92.39

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Best Automatic Forex Trading Platforms | FXCC )