Here’s the market outlook for the year 2015:

EURUSD

Long-term trend: Bearish

This pair trended southward for most of last year. In May 2014, price topped at 1.3993 and since then, it started moving south (a movement of around 1890 pips). Last year, price closed at the low of 1.2101, challenging the support line at 1.2100. From here, price could go further south a little before it turns bullish. Should this become true, the bullish run may last till the end of February 2015. In March and April, serious volatility is expected in the market, but the bears may gain upper hands from May till August; though the bearish pressure may be punctuated with occasional rallies. There is a possibility that the bearish pressure would thin out in November, enabling price to go upwards before the bears start to fight for dominance again around December.

USDCHF

Long-term trend: Bullish  

This market trended seriously upwards last year, closing at 0.9936 at the end of the year. The last year’s close was above the support level of 0.9900, while price has already gone upwards above the psychological level at 1.0000, enabling USD to reach parity with CHF.  Looking at the historical data, the current uptrend started in March 2014 and gained a serious momentum a few months later. From the support level at 0.8700, price skyrocketed by roughly 1240 pips. This bullish bias has potential to continue briefly, but the risk of a large pullback is now very high. Price may become very weak at any time. Nevertheless, the outlook may become bullish again in April and May 2015, while the bears and the bulls would continue their power tussle till September. That is the month in which the bears may likely gain upper hands (also in October). The market may become seriously bullish again in November, which is a situation that could hold out till the end of the year.

GBPUSD

Long-term trend: Bearish

The long-term bias on GBPUSD is also bearish, just like EURUSD. Price trended upward from the beginning of the year 2014 until the end of July: reaching a high of 1.7197. From that distribution territory, price nosedive for the rest of that year. It nosedived by about 1650 pips. Closing at 1.5580, the bearish movement still has much room to continue seriously till the end of February 2015, though the possibilities of transitory rallies cannot be ruled out on the way. Price may rally in March and remain so till early May; after which a period of high volatility will follow. There might also be another run of a dominant bullish bias in September and October, before another serious selling pressure resumes and stays till the end of the year.

USDJPY

Long-term trend: Bullish 

This currency trading instrument has had one of its strongest rallies in recent times. The last significant rally started in August 2014 and held out till the end of that year: while dips in price offered novel opportunities to go long. Generally the uptrend that started in August enabled price to move upwards by over 1.900 pips, as price reached a yearly high of 121.83. From that point, further northward movement has become a kind of difficult, for price experienced large pullbacks in December 2014 (closing at 119.79 in that month). This year, the bullish trend would continue till the middle of April 2015, albeit not without threats from the bears. This trading instrument could become weak from the middle of May till early October – causing high momentum and significant movement. Price would, however, rally again before the end of December this year.    

EURJPY

Long-term trend: Bullish

Like other JPY pairs, this cross also trended upward last year. The upward trend was the strongest in the months of October and November 2014. In December, price was unable to trend upwards significantly and as a result of that, the outlook has become bearish in the near-term. One cause of this is the weakness of the EUR itself. Price now has a good probability of going bullish from now till April 2015, and it may become weak between July and October of this year (with the bears and the bulls engaging in a cut-throat struggle for supremacy in May and June). The rest of the year would then be subjected to the strength of JPY itself. Strength in JPY may result in a vivid downtrend; and vice versa.    

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“We have a brain in our heads. I think we should use it to apply a little discretion and common sense to our trading.” – Dave Landry