What’s your winning probability?
Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?
FOREX COACH Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your Winning Probability?
Do you have the answer to this question?
If you don’t, then probably you should NOT even trade.
It is a very simple question that you should ask yourself before you take every trade.
“WHAT IS MY WINNING PROBABILITY FOR THIS TRADE? “
If it is anything lesser than 60%, skip the trade.
You see it makes no sense at all for you to take a trade that has lesser than a 60% chance of winning.
If it’s lesser than a 50% chance of winning, why even trade?
You are bound to lose on that trade right?
If it is a 50% chance of winning. You are betting on your luck.
That’s gambling, that is NOT trading.
If it is a 60% or higher chance of winning. And if you only take trades that have a 60% or higher chance of winning.
Where do you think your account size will go? UP of course.
Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?
Having a 60% and higher winning probability for that trade means you have an edge over the market.
You SHOULD consistently take trades that are over 60% chance of winning.
But if on occasions where you take a trade that is a 50% chance of winning.
You will spoil your entire game and your entire trading plan.
That is because you are adding a random variable to your trades.
And these random variables will disrupt your account growth.
For example:
Trader A) Out of 20 trades, he take trades that are only 60% or higher winning probability.
Trader B) Out of 20 trades, he takes 10 trades that are of 60% or higher winning probability and 10 trades of lesser than 60% winning probability.
Trader C) Out of 20 trades, he doesn’t care about the winning probability. He just take trades when he likes it or just based on his gut feel.
Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?
Which trader do you think has a better chance of growing his forex account?
Trader A of course!
Which trader trades most like you?
If you are at trader B or trader C stage, you should stop your trading now.
And reflect on this.
This vital question is something that you must ask yourself the next time you trade.
“What is my winning probability for this trade?”
Forex Coach: Ezekiel Chew
Asia #1 Forex Mentor from www.asiaforexmentor.com
A complete professional forex trading system that even newbies can apply instantly. Asia Forex Mentor's forex course is now FREE!
Nice article.. one similar topic is in general discussion but it is not as detailed as urs.
The good or ill of a man lies within his own will. – Epictetus
Originally posted by ironicalNice article.. one similar topic is in general discussion but it is not as detailed as urs.
I am very thankfull to you for appreciating my efforts.
A complete professional forex trading system that even newbies can apply instantly. Asia Forex Mentor's forex course is now FREE!
A good statistical analysis
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Winning probability concept allows us to avoid reckless trading. If we implement this concept in our trading style, it will help us to improve our patience skill.
Originally posted by illiterateWinning probability concept allows us to avoid reckless trading. If we implement this concept in our trading style, it will help us to improve our patience skill.
Yes. This concept gives a new direction to traders.
How do you measure winning probability of a trade?
Originally posted by ChampHow do you measure winning probability of a trade?
Whichever method u use for trading can be used to measure winning probability.
Stick to your rules
Originally posted by ChampHow do you measure winning probability of a trade?
It is not possible to work it out per trade. As you never know for sure which way the market will go.
You need to know overall probablity, as you can lose 9 times out of 10 and still make a profit.
You can analyze your history something like this..
(number of winning trades * profit per trade) / (number of losing trades * loss per trade)
Realisticly you need to be trading for long enough to get good data. you especially need to know the expectancy of a loss.
That is probably the no 1 reason newby's fail. They dont have the data. Even trading demo's will give you good data.
god trading strategy would keep the profits rolling
There is no surety because this is forex trading and when i place the order even i was not sure at that time how much i gonna make profit here and i am just happy with small profit too.