i think its happend once in a year when a very big disaster or earth quick come and distry everything 

Originally posted by leebut

The mention of a system to predict the weather or FOREX, suggests to me that the weather or FOREX is not random, as a system itself is not random. If the weather or FOREX complies with the system then one or the other is following one or the other thing.

FOREX is not random. Why? People or programmed systems are making decisions, and those decisions are far from random. The only elements of randomness in FOREX are natural events. When we make a trading decision, it's not random, it's a thought out strategy. Essentially, EVERY movement in the FOREX market is a thought out strategy. Banks don't randomly buy or sell, neither do fund managers. If the market was truly random, then tossing a coin or rolling a die would be a good strategy. An news announcement is not random. Announced or not, it was planned by someone. If the weather is so similar ot FOREX, why not use it to make trading decisions? If the wind blows North go long. If it rains go short, if temperature is below a certain level trade a range, etc.

 

Maybe you should read about Chaos Theory, which is a theory that unifies the seemingly random behavior across many fields and natural phenomena.

Here's a link to aid you in that quest:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

Sure yes it does not, even when when it predicted it can be change and badly.

Sure yes it does not, even when when it predicted it can be change and badly.

Now I realized market is almost same with weather, and I will do the same to handle weather.

When weather is going bad, I better not going outside or if I have to go outside, I will prepare everything to protect myself.......same like trading, when market seems unpredictable or seems worst, I better not enter market but if I have to enter market, I will protect myself with strict SL and smallest lot......

but in most case, I prefer waiting and see until market movement are calm and clearly to see.

predicting for forex is same like predicting the future.future is always unknown for everybody.all we can do is based on data and experiance we have we can make some predictions.it is better than gambling but still not 100% sure.that is why it is similar with weather forecast.there are so many factors that we cant control all.

Yes markets are like weather and they behave like weather as it is completely difficult to do accurate weather forecast and predict it precisely and same way is the markets and it is difficult to predict these markets accurately. also markets are uncertain and change like weather .

Absolutely, all the analysis regardless of technical or fundamental, help the trader to calmly take a good decision, but it is still empirical and not theoretical.

Originally posted by FXlord

Absolutely, all the analysis regardless of technical or fundamental, help the trader to calmly take a good decision, but it is still empirical and not theoretical.

 

Technical and fundamental analysis are used to study and observe the markets just like weather department does the forecast and makes a prediction the traders study the markets and predicts them.

They are similar in there is a certain amount of unpredicatability, but different in that a bank can't decide to make it sunny or rainy on a whim.  Much of the price movement in forex is caused by banks jobbing causing stop hunts - not seen anyone do that with the weather.