BTCUSD - The pair's upside potential remains

Positive sentiment associated with monetary factors still prevails. Investors are confident that against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures, the US regulator will start raising interest rates less rapidly, reducing the increment to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. These actions should lead to a decrease in support for the US currency and at the same time reduce the likelihood of the US economy going into recession, which increases the risk appetite of investors.

The price corrected to the level of 22500 (Murrey level [6/8]), a breakdown of which will give the prospect of developing a decline to the levels of 21250 (Murrey level [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 20000 (Murrey level [4/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). The key level for the "bulls" remains the level of 23400, consolidation above which will ensure growth to the levels of 25000 (Murrey level [8/8]) and 26250 (Murrey level [+1/8]).

Resistance levels: 23400, 25000, 26250 | Support levels: 22500, 21250, 20000

Crude Oil - Saudi authorities have announced their readiness to trade not only in US dollars

Quotes are gradually recovering against the backdrop of fundamental news: investors are reacting to the recent statement by the Minister of Finance of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, made by him during his speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. The official said that for the first time in 48 years, his country is ready to consider proposals for international trade in currencies other than the US dollar. This statement supported the recent global de-dollarization trend, a support factor for the black gold market, creating an opportunity for more independent pricing to emerge.

Another factor of local support for oil prices was the statement by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who noted that the introduction of a price limit for petroleum products from the Russian Federation is a much more complicated process than the previously introduced limit on the cost of raw materials since there are a lot of their types, and each has a dynamic price, which makes it difficult to establish specific values, and it will take considerable time to develop the final rules. The new restrictions could be formalized as early as February.

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within a downward corridor, approaching its resistance line at 87.30, and the technical indicators reinforce the buy signal.

Resistance levels: 89.3, 97.7 | Support levels: 84.8, 76.7

GBPUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (V) ended, within which the wave (5) of 5 formed, and the development of the upward first wave (1) started. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is forming, within which the wave iii of 3 has ended, a correction has formed as the wave iv of 3, and the wave v of 3 is developing. 

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.2900–1.3500. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1835.

US100 Surges Nearly %2.5

Wall Street rallies ahead of big tech earnings

US indices rose sharply today, extending Friday gains  as risk appetite improved bolstered by the lack of Fed members' speeches, due to the blackout period, ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 31 – February 1. Now investors brace themselves for a busy week of earnings, including top tech giants Microsoft, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. 

Recent economic data have magnified concerns that the US economy is near a recession while boosting bets that the Fed will continue to raise rates however at a slower pace. Wall Street Journal Fed insider,  claims that the US central bank will announce a 25 basis point rate hike next week, which boosted upbeat sentiment. Later this week we get the US GDP and inflation data releases, which may increase volatility on the markets and influence FED decision. 

US100 jumped above major resistance at 11500 pts and 50 SMA (green line) on Friday and during today's session buyers breached long-term downward trendline. Currently the index is approaching 200 SMA (red line) and if buyers manage to uphold momentum resistance at 13000 pts may be at risk.  This level is marked with previous price reactions and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in March 2020.

EURJPY Keeps the Bearish Bias

EURJPY pair provided negative close below the additional barrier 142 yesterday, to increase the chances of activating the negative attack again, while the current weak trades are caused by stochastic contradiction against the moving average 55 that provides negative signals by settling below the mentioned barrier.

These factors allow us to expect forming temporary sideways fluctuation until gathering the additional negative momentum to ease the mission of starting the negative attack and press on 140.25 level soon, while breaking it will confirm the continuation of the negativity by targeting 139.4 and 138.2 levels.

Silver - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) forms, within which the entry first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave iv of 1, within which the wave (c) of iv is developing. 

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 26 – 27. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 21.80.

USDJPY - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave of the lower level a of 4 formed. Now, the wave b of 4 has ended, and the wave c of 4 is forming, within which the wave (iv) of c is developing. 

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 121.67 – 118. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 134.54.

EUR Drops After French and German PMIs

Flash PMI indices for January from France and Germany were released today at 8:15 am GMT and 8:30 am GMT, respectively. French release turned out to be mixed - the manufacturing index showed a big beat and returned above the 50 threshold while the services index missed expectations and moved deeper into contraction territory. Similarly mixed results were shown by German reading. However, in this case manufacturing data missed expectations while services gauge beat and moved back above 50 point threshold.

France

Manufacturing: 50.8 vs 49.7 expected (49.2 previously)

Services: 49.2 vs 49.9 expected (49.5 previously)

Germany

> Manufacturing: 47.0 vs 47.8 expected: (47.1 previously)

> Services: 50.4 vs 49.6 expected (49.2 previously)

EURUSD moved lower in a knee-jerk move following the French release but this drop was quickly erased while European indices moved higher. However, upward move on EURUSD was entirely erased following release of German data. DE30 erased big part of the gain but continues to trade slightly above pre-announcement levels.

EURUSD took a hit following release of German PMI data and is looking back towards the 1.0860 support zone.

USDCHF Negotiates the Resistance 

USDCHF pair provided new positive trades to test the bearish channel’s resistance, noticing that stochastic shows new negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to resume the main bearish trend, which its targets begin at 0.9100 and extend to 0.9100.

We remind you that breaching 0.9230 will push the price to start bullish correction that its targets begin by testing 0.9335 areas. The expected trading range for today is between 0.9140 support and 0.9275 resistance.

ETHUSD - Murray analysis

Since the beginning of this year, the ETHUSD pair has been growing within the framework of a general market uptrend: last week, for the first time since September, the quotes rose to the area of 1678.7, but now they have lost some of the positions they won, dropping to the level of 1625 (Murray level [5/8]).

The key for the "bulls" is currently the level of 1650 (Fibo retracement 23.6%), consolidation above it will give the prospect of further growth to the levels of 1750 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1875 (Murray level [7/8]). In general, the upward trend in the market remains, as evidenced by the upward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone. The Stochastic's exit from the overbought zone does not exclude a corrective decline, but its potential is seen as limited by the 1500 mark (Murray level [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). If the price consolidates below this level, the decline will be able to continue to the area of 1375 (Murray level [3/8]) and 1250 (Murray level [2/8]), but so far this scenario seems less likely.      

Resistance levels: 1650, 1750, 1875 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250