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Can Oil Reach $300?

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Crude oil could hit a price of $300 a barrel in a few years, a prominent oil hedge fund manager has suggested, citing underinvestment in new production.

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According to Pierre Andurand, the oil industry needs oil higher than it is now to see new investment, notably outside the U.S. shale patch. Writing on Twitter, Andurand said it was paradoxical how the industry is too worried about prices to invest in new production but this worry is what will push prices higher without this new investment.

Interestingly, Andurand chimed in with Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih to say that crude at $100 will not hurt demand--a statement that is questionable at least and suspicious at most, especially in light of Falih's citing Brent at $150 in 2008, which, according to him "had no dire consequences". Yet many would agree that the financial crisis of 2008 was a very dire consequence of a number of events, including the price spike in crude oil, which was not long after corrected.

Also, renewable energy is not where it was ten years ago: it is much more competitive now, so oil at $100 or more would likely stimulate demand for electric cars and renewable power generation capacity. This could be the silver lining of higher oil prices although even with it economies will most likely suffer higher inflation with all due consequences.

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