Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 03 2013

Congress Passes Fiscal Cliff Deal – The Breakdown

In a final hour maneuver, Congressional leaders brokered a deal that will allow the US economy to avert the Fiscal Cliff and alleviate pressure on the financial markets. The passage is being considered by some to be a victory for US President Barack Obama. But, by others, it shifts the focus to mid February when discussions are likely to begin over the impending debt ceiling.

With the bill set to be signed into law by US President Barack Obama, focus has now shifted to the impending debt ceiling debate – likely to begin in mid-February. The concern remains over the fact that Democratic leaders will need to make further concessions on spending to Republicans in order to allow an extension of the $16.4 trillion ceiling. An inability to do so would plunge the government into a plausible shutdown. This will likely include cutbacks in entitlement spending and other programs in order to equalize Republican concessions for the Fiscal Cliff deal.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...nuary-03-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-03 08:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Dec)
2013-01-03 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Dec)
2013-01-03 13:30 GMT | United States. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 29)
2013-01-03 19:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes

Forex News
2013-01-03 05:39 GMT | EUR/GBP struggling to maintain above 0.8100
2013-01-03 05:23 GMT | GBP/USD holding above 1.6200 as Europe approaches
2013-01-03 03:18 GMT | EUR/USD loses 1.3150; stalls at 21-DMA
2013-01-03 03:12 GMT | GBP/AUD finding support at 200 day SMA 1.5450


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.31903 | LOW: 1.31238 | BID: 1.31371 | ASK: 1.31377 | CHANGE: -0.36% | TIME: 07 : 48:13



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Hourly chart correction is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3170 (R1). Next initial targets locate at 1.3189 (R2) and 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: There’s a negative bias that pressures our next support level at 1.3121 (S1). Loss here might enable further market downgrade towards to expected targets at 1.3104 (S2) and 1.3086 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3170, 1.3189, 1.3208
Support Levels: 1.3121, 1.3104, 1.3086

--------------------------------
GBPUSD



HIGH: 1.62551 | LOW: 1.62014 | BID: 1.62219 | ASK: 1.62231 | CHANGE: -0.19% | TIME: 07 : 48:14

OUTLOOK SUMMAR: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.6258 (R1). Progress above it might enable next step of uptrend development and expose our targets at 1.6277 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3). Downwards scenario: Retracement development is limited to the next support level at 1.6201 (S1). Clearance here might change trader’s sentiment to bearish and open road towards to next targets, located at 1.6183 (S2) and 1.6164 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6258, 1.6277, 1.6295
Support Levels: 1.6201, 1.6183, 1.6164

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 87.356 | LOW: 87.092 | BID: 87.264 | ASK: 87.269 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 07 : 48:15



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market remains bullish oriented and next hurdle lies above the local high at 87.39 (R1).If the break occurs above it, next attractive level could be found 87.59 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 87.80 (R3). Downwards scenario: After the appreciation, provided yesterday price is stabilized and correction forces are possible below the support level at 86.96 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next target at 86.75 (S2). If the price holds its momentum on the downside we suggest final target for today at 86.55 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 87.39, 87.59, 87.80
Support Levels: 86.96, 86.75, 86.55

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 04 2013

Two largest rating agencies consider US fiscal cliff deal insufficient

Moody's and Standard and Poor's credit rating agencies urged US lawmakers on Thursday to increase their efforts to tackle the country's budget deficit, as they consider the last-minute fiscal cliff measures insufficient. The deal which was struck on Tuesday between Democrats and Republicans, with the aim to avoid automatic year-end tax increases and spending cuts, improves the current situation but does not lay foundations for lowering debt ratios in the medium term, Moody's rating agency told Reuters. Moody's senior credit officer Steven Hess said that the agency would wait for the outcome of the measures adopted by the US government before making decisions on the rating outlook or the rating itself.

Pending the signature of President Obama, expected to be done shortly, the US officially avoids that millions of citizens suffer tax hikes and spending reductions, which would have brought the U.S. economy into recession according to economists' projections. Worth not forgetting though, is that still plentiful of unresolved pressing issues remain, with the most immediate being the need to raise the federal borrowing limit, with the deadline over 2 month from now.-FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04012013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-04 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Dec)
2013-01-04 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-04 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
2013-01-04 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec)

Forex News
2013-01-04 04:57 GMT | USD/JPY maximum pain to shorts above 87.50
2013-01-04 04:25 GMT | Constructive on EUR/USD towards 1.35 - Westpac
2013-01-04 03:53 GMT | NZD/USD finds support at 0.8220
2013-01-04 02:40 GMT | GBP/JPY stalls an 8 week run up below 141.00

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

---------------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH 1.30532 LOW 1.30191 BID 1.30426 ASK 1.30432 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 07:59:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While EURUSD trades above the next support level, possibility of correction arises if market manages to break our resistance at 1.3082 (R1). In this case we would suggest next targets at 1.3111 (R2) and 1.3140 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly negative. If the market gains momentum and break below the next support at 1.3018 (S1), we suggest next targets to be placed at 1.2989 (S2) and 1.2961 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3082, 1.3111, 1.3140
Support Levels: 1.3018, 1.2989, 1.2961

------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61076 LOW 1.60569 BID 1.60780 ASK 1.60792 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 07:59:50



OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: The upside movement looks protected by the next resistance level at 1.6113 (R1), located at the 20 SMA. Rise above it might change market sentiment to bullish on the short term perspective and expose intraday targets at 1.6142 (R2) and 1.6170 (R3).Downwards scenario: Our next support level, located at 1.6056 (S1) is the key point for the further downtrend development. Break here is required to put in focus lower targets at 1.6026 (S2) and 1.5995 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.6113, 1.6142, 1.6170
Support Levels: 1.6056, 1.6026, 1.5995

------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 87.831 LOW 87.239 BID 87.753 ASK 87.757 CHANGE 0.6% TIME 07:59:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY gained momentum, turning intraday bias to the positive side. Our next resistance level for today is hold at 87.85 (R1). Rise above it might open route towards to next targets at 88.16 (R2) and 88.47 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our reference point locates at 87.52 (S1), decrease below it might enable bearish pressure, targeting 87.23 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support level at 86.94 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 87.85, 88.16, 88.47
Support Levels: 87.52, 87.23, 86.94

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Account | Forex Software | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 07 2013

ECB, BOE in Prime Focus this Week

With the Fiscal Cliff behind us and the impending debt ceiling debate at least another month away, market focus will return to plain economic fundamentals next week. The sentiment is being bolstered by two central bank announcements – the ECB (January 10th, 7:45AM EST) and BOE (January 10th, 7:00AM EST). Although nothing really new is expected, both events are still likely to take the lion’s share of attention.

Nothing is expected to happen when the Bank of England meets for the first time in 2013. Although concerns have emerged over a divide in the central bank, it is unlikely that the monetary body will move to do anything other than wait-and-see. The key remains in the results from the Funding for Lending program, which is entering its sixth month of operation. In the same respect, the ECB is unlikely to move when it decides on interest rates on Thursday. Instead, monetary policy leaders will continue to highlight the option of the OMT scheme in quelling any more crisis concerns, and likely point to stabilization in the region’s member economies in justifying no rate change.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...nuary-07-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-07 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan)
2013-01-07 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-07 15:00 GMT | Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Dec)
2013-01-07 22:30 GMT | Australia. AiG Performance of Construction Index (Dec)

Forex News
2013-01-07 05:37 GMT | US Dollar buyers not giving up
2013-01-07 05:16 GMT | NZD/USD pressured below 0.8300
2013-01-07 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD, recovery above 1.3150 exposes 1.33 – BBH
2013-01-07 03:25 GMT | AUD/JPY multi-year highs capped below 93



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

-----------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.30789 | LOW: 1.30283 | BID: 1.30356 | ASK: 1.30365 | CHANGE: -0.24% | TIME: 07:50:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Bearish pressure stays intact though retracement formation might take another step and refresh local highs above the resistance at 1.3065 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.3082 (R2) and 1.3100 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Next support comes in at the 1.3026 (S1) level. Loss here might keep the rally intact and drive market price towards to the next targets at 1.3009 (S2) and 1.2994 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3065, 1.3082, 1.3100
Support Levels: 1.3026, 1.3009, 1.2994

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.60817 | LOW: 1.60211 | BID: 1.60263 | ASK: 1.60275 | CHANGE: -0.27% | TIME: 07:50:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Cable has bounced back, however If it manages to break above the next resistance level at 1.6082 (R1), we expect to see new step of uptrend development with possible targets at 1.6119 (R2) and 1.6160 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bearish oriented traders. Friday low is acting now as key support level at 1.6003 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 1.5964 (S2) and 1.5924 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6082, 1.6119, 1.6160
Support Levels: 1.6003, 1.5964, 1.5924

------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 88.373 | LOW: 87.789 | BID: 87.838 | ASK: 87.844 | CHANGE: -0.34% | TIME: 07:50:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY accomplished new step of uptrend formation and fall to the correction formation. Risk of further market increase is seen above the resistance at 87.95 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and expose next targets at 88.15 (R2) and 88.34 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure remains in power today as both moving averages are pointing down. Next support level is seen at 87.59 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to our targets 87.40 (S2) and 87.22 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 87.95, 88.15, 88.34
Support Levels: 87.59, 87.40, 87.22د

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 08 2013

Japan to buy ESM bonds to stabilize the yen

The big story in the Asian session is the announcement by Japan of its commitment to purchase ESM bonds to help stabilize Europe, Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters. The decision-maker added that Japan will buy European ESM bonds using FX reserves, although amount of bond buys is undecided at this point, he said. In another Reuters headline, Mr. Aso said the buys will start as soon as today. Meanwhile, the Economic Revival Minister Amari said that upcoming BoJ stimulus will be “significant”.

Meanwhile,after months of uncertainty and struggle to reach a compromise in Congress, lawmakers finally voted on a deal to avoid falling completely off of the fiscal cliff. The agreement, voted on early New Year’s Day by the Senate, was finally passed by the House late at night, just days before the new Congress is sworn in. Tax reform dominated much of the heated debate in recent weeks, but the Democrats and Republicans finally reached an agreement in order to avoid a significant impact on economic activity, at least in the short-term.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...nuary-08-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-08 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Nov)
2013-01-08 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-08 20:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Credit Change (Nov)

Forex News
2013-01-08 05:59 GMT | GBP/USD moving sideways above 1.6100
2013-01-08 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD likely to remain on the defensive ahead of ECB
2013-01-08 04:41 GMT | AUD/USD at session lows below 1.0480
2013-01-08 04:21 GMT | EUR/AUD printing fresh weekly highs above 1.2500



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.31397 | LOW: 1.31035 | BID: 1.31231 | ASK: 1.31234 | CHANGE: 0.05% | TIME: 08 : 20:35



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at fresh high formed today – 1.3139 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.3156 (R2). Final resistance for today could be found at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias remains negative. Successful retest of our support at 1.3102 (S1) would suggest next targets at 1.3085 (S2) and 1.3069 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3139, 1.3156, 1.3171
Support Levels: 1.3102, 1.3085, 1.3069

--------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.61286 | LOW: 1.61014 | BID: 1.61026 | ASK: 1.61036 | CHANGE: -0.07% | TIME: 08 : 20:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Both moving averages support current retracement formation from its initial downtrend. Positive market sentiment might be found above the key resistance level at 1.6130 (R1). Above here is possible appreciation towards to our resistance levels at 1.6148 (R2) and 1.6166 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6093 (S1), drop below it would suggest next target at 1.6076 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting 1.6058 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6130, 1.6148, 1.6166
Support Levels: 1.6093, 1.6076, 1.6058

----------------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 87.807 | LOW: 87.234 | BID: 87.416 | ASK: 87.421 | CHANGE: -0.42% | TIME: 08 : 20:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Next resistance level locates above the local peak at 87.81 (R1). Break here is required to enable next target at 87.95 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 88.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our initial support level lie at 87.40 (S1). Loss here would enable bearish forces and might expose lower targets at 87.26 (S2) and 87.12 (S3) during the day.

Resistance Levels: 87.81, 87.95, 88.09
Support Levels: 87.40, 87.26, 87.12

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (FX Central Clearing Ltd)

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 09 2013

Eurozone crisis still far from over

Eurozone unemployment reached a record high of 11.8% in November, the European Commission reported on Tuesday. Data also showed an increase in youth unemployment to 24.4%. This proves that the crisis in the area is still far from over, despite recent opinions to the contrary (including European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso’s hopeful declarations this morning). Martin van Vliet from ING, who notices this latest wave of optimism among Eurozone consumers and businesses suggests that “with more fiscal austerity in the pipeline, the debt crisis still unresolved, and unemployment rising (and hitting a fresh record high of 11.8% in November), consumers and hence businesses still have plenty to worry about. Moreover, despite the recent improvement, Eurozone economic sentiment remains in recession territory.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a meeting with Greek PM Antonis Samaras in Berlin on Tuesday, during which the Greek leader assured that his country was delivering on promises to implement austerity measures and was carrying out reforms in return for European aid. “We are trying to win back credibility, on the part of the people of Europe and on the part of the markets,” Samaras told reporters during a press conference. Angela Merkel praised Greece’s efforts to reduce its debt load so far and expressed her interest in the progress of implementation of the previously agreed austerity measures. She also warned that 2013 will be a tough year for the Eurozone. “We must agree on stronger economic policy cooperation by June this year, and there is plenty of work ahead of us,” she said.-FXstreet.com
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...nuary-09-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar

2013-01-09 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Nov)
2013-01-09 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-01-09 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-09 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Dec)

Forex News

2013-01-09 05:17 GMT | EUR/USD lacks stimulus; earnings, Fed speeches, ECB eyed
2013-01-09 05:05 GMT | GBP/USD looking again toward 1.6000
2013-01-09 04:13 GMT | EUR/JPY below MoF Aso ESM level of 114.55-60
2013-01-09 02:36 GMT | USD/JPY moves above descending trend line; hits 87.50



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

--------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.30933 | LOW: 1.30671 | BID: 1.30843 | ASK: 1.30849 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 18:43



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the 1.3103 (R1) might boost the upside pressure. Next visible resistance levels are expected at 1.3118 (R2) and 1.3134 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fresh low, formed today is pointing to key short-term support level at 1.3067 (S1). Decline below it would suggest next intraday target at 1.3052 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.3036 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3118, 1.3134
Support Levels: 1.3067, 1.3052, 1.3036

------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.60684 | LOW: 1.60368 | BID: 1.60533 | ASK: 1.60543 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08 : 18:44



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Our retail trading market sentiment indicator shows, that market participants are bullish. Penetration above the 1.6069 (R1) might lead to the protective orders execution and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.6088 (R2) and 1.6105 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level stays at 1.6036 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.6020 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 1.6003 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6069, 1.6088, 1.6105
Support Levels: 1.6036, 1.6020, 1.6003

--------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 87.543 | LOW: 86.829 | BID: 87.387 | ASK: 87.393 | CHANGE: 0.41% | TIME: 08 : 18:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: The short-term tendency for the price is oriented to the upside. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 87.56 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 87.71 (R2) onto 87.86 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the pair gains momentum today on the downside and overcome our next support level at 87.22 (S1) then intraday outlook would turn into negative territory. Possible targets could be exposed at 87.07 (S2) and 86.92 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 87.56, 87.71, 87.86
Support Levels: 87.22, 87.07, 86.92

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 10 2013

Limited chance of ECB rate cut in January; BoE unlikely to act

Not much excitement is expected from the first ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings of 2013, as the majority of economists believe both central banks will remain on hold this month. Nevertheless, there are some doubts concerning ECB's action, as Mario Draghi hinted in December at a possibility of another rate reduction.

The general expectation for ECB's January monetary policy meeting is that of no change. Despite the fact that the central bank signalized its readiness to perform further rate cuts, "they know as well as everyone else in the market that we can’t carry on with such low interest rates for ever," as Steve Ruffley suggests. Other contributors point out that the OMT program has brought relief to the markets, that peripheral countries' bond yields have dropped and that "fundamentals are showing signs of stabilization in major countries like France and Germany," in the words of Richard C. Lee, and that all of these factors significantly reduce the need for a cut.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10012013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-10 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2013-01-10 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2013-01-10 13:30 GMT | Canada. New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Nov)

Forex News
2013-01-10 05:34 GMT | EUR/GBP flat around 0.8150 ahead of BoE/ECB
2013-01-10 05:34 GMT | Can the ECB bring clarity to the EUR/USD?
2013-01-10 05:18 GMT | NZD/JPY highest since Sept 2008 above 74.00
2013-01-10 04:52 GMT | USD/JPY rally reaching a peak - ANZ

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30661 LOW 1.30388 BID 1.30458 ASK 1.30464 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 07:55:11



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3058 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we suggest next target at 1.3073 (R2) with possibility to reach final resistance at 1.3087 (R3). Today in focus- ECB Rate decision at 12:45 GMT. Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term negative market sentiment would be valid. Key support lie at 1.3036 (S1), below here opens route towards to our initial targets at 1.3021 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3073, 1.3087
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3021, 1.3005

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60269 LOW 1.6004 BID 1.60102 ASK 1.60112 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 07:55:12



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: BOE Interest Rate decision at 12:00 GMT might increase volatility today. Next immediate resistance is seen at 1.6036 (R1). Above that level opens a route towards to higher target at 1.6059 (R2) and any further price advance would then be targeting 1.6083 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market seems to have found a base at fresh low formed yesterday. Below here locates our next support level at 1.5992 (S1) and opens way towards to immediate supports at 1.5969 (S2) and 1.5945 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6036, 1.6059, 1.6083
Support Levels: 1.5992, 1.5969, 1.5945

-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 88.213 LOW 87.862 BID 88.178 ASK 88.183 CHANGE 0.35% TIME 07:55:13



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY having during the Asian session and found an element of resistive measures at 88.22 (R1). Clearance of this level would suggest uptrend development with possible targets at 88.36 (R2) and 88.51 (R3) Downwards scenario: A corrective phase might occur below the immediate support level at 88.00 (S1). Clearance here is required to develop a short-term bearish momentum and expose our next target at 87.85 (S2). Any further correction would then be targeting 87.70 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 88.22, 88.36, 88.51
Support Levels: 88.00, 87.85, 87.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 11 2013

Cautious economic optimism induces ECB to hold rates

The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to maintain the main interest rate at 0.75% at their first monetary policy meeting of 2013. ECB head Mario Draghi revealed a more positive outlook on the European crisis during the press conference following the interest rate announcement. The president suggested that inflation should decline below 2% during 2013. He said that economic weakness in the Eurozone will extend into the new year but that it should give way to a recovery later in the year, as confidence in financial markets is improving gradually and bond yields are seen falling considerably. Credit conditions, already satisfactory, should continue improving as well, as the two long term refinancing operations helped stave off disorderly delevering.

Mario Draghi stressed the importance of a rapid implementation of structural reforms by Eurozone governments in order to increase competitiveness in the area. This should boost growth potential and lead to a rise in employment. The ECB head also pointed out the necessity of establishing an integrated financial framework in the Eurozone of which the “single supervisory mechanism (SSM) is one of the main building blocks.” Jamie Coleman from Forex Live comments on ECB's lack of action this month: “Draghi did the euro a lot of good in the near-term by taking a rate cut off the table. But in the bigger picture he's done the ECB a disservice by leading the market to expect a rate cut at the December meeting only to change tack nearly 180 degrees at the following meeting. Central bankers are not supposed to react to each and every blip in sentiment and it appears that Draghi is doing just that.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11012013/


Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-11 **:** GMT | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction
2013-01-11 09:30 GMT | United KIngdom. Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-11 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Nov)
2013-01-11 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Dec)

Forex News
2013-01-11 05:42 GMT | EUR/GBP stalls the run higher ahead of key 0.8230 level
2013-01-11 05:31 GMT | NZD/JPY bears defend 75.40
2013-01-11 03:59 GMT | EUR/USD wallowing below 1.3300 ahead of the weekend
2013-01-11 02:40 GMT | NZD/USD at session lows below 0.8450


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32792 LOW 1.32504 BID 1.32582 ASK 1.32588 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08:17:23



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD gained momentum and formed clear uptrend formation. Currently price is stabilized near its high and resistance at 1.3277 (R1) is the next attractive point. If a break occurs here we expect gradual increase towards to our targets at 1.3288 (R2) and 1.3300 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative market sentiment would be provided if price decline below the low of the day at 1.3247 (S1). An hourly chart price setup is suggest next retracement formation targets at 1.3236 (S2) and 1.3224 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3277, 1.3288, 1.3300
Support Levels: 1.3247, 1.3236, 1.3224

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61773 LOW 1.61441 BID 1.61486 ASK 1.61497 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08:17:24



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: If GBPUSD gains momentum and rose above the resistance at 1.6177 (R1), we expect further uptrend formation with next targets at 1.6191 (R2) and 1.6204 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: A short-term negative tendency might face immediate support at 1.6141 (S1). Below here open route towards to expected targets at 1.6127 (S2) and 1.6112 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6177, 1.6191, 1.6204
Support Levels: 1.6141, 1.6127, 1.6112

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 89.346 LOW 88.689 BID 89.047 ASK 89.053 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08:17:24



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive after slight correction, provided today. Our next resistance is placed at 89.35 (R1). Rise above it might push price towards to next targets at 89.53 (R2) and 89.70 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Current price deviation might face next support level at 88.77 (S1). We expect price downgrade towards to our targets at 88.59 (S2) and 88.41 (S3) as a part of consolidation formation in case of successful penetration below it.

Resistance Levels: 89.35, 89.53, 89.70
Support Levels: 88.77, 88.59, 88.41

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (FX Central Clearing Ltd)

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 14 2013

Focus on Bernanke speech; revenge of the doves?

With the European debt crisis temporarily buried underground, and the US debt ceiling still too many weeks far down the road to become a pressing issue, most of the weekend headlines were stolen by Japan and its quest to set a highly ambitious 2% inflation. However, on the horizon the sound of helicopter helices loom, as Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke prepares to give a speech at the University of Michigan at 21GMT, NY close time, following the latest controversial FOMC minutes.

NAB notes: “This is his first public address since the December FOMC minutes that sparked so much chatter and market volatility surrounding the possibility that the Fed could mark time on the current phase of its QE programme by year end.” NAB expects Bernanke’s comments “to be directed at disabusing his audience that stropping balance sheet expansion as a prelude to commencing to take back policy stimulus are events that could be separated by years not months” the bank says. “If so, expect the USD to be subject to some fresh downward pressure…” NAB concludes.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...nuary-14-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-14 07:00 GMT | Germany. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
2013-01-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov)
2013-01-14 15:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
2013-01-14 21:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke Speech

Forex News
2013-01-14 04:49 GMT | USD/JPY, watch the 20EMA for clues
2013-01-14 04:43 GMT | GBP/JPY climbing toward 145.00
2013-01-14 04:31 GMT | AUD/USD reverses course, back to fresh session highs
2013-01-14 03:27 GMT | EUR/USD prints fresh 10-month high at 1.3404



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34036 | LOW: 1.33497 | BID: 1.33882 | ASK: 1.33890 | CHANGE: 0.35% | TIME: 08 : 02:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURJPY gained momentum on the upside and formed local high at 1.3404 (R1). In a thin market and economic calendar like today we are not expecting significant volatility increase, though a break here would suggest next targets at 1.3434 (R2) and 1.3463 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possibility of consolidation formation is high today. Decline below the support level at 1.3364 (S1) might initiate protective orders execution and drive market price towards to next support levels at 1.3336 (S2) and 1.3307 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3404, 1.3434, 1.3463
Support Levels: 1.3364, 1.3336, 1.3307

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.61544 | LOW: 1.61168 | BID: 1.61397 | ASK: 1.61409 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08 : 02:50



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: The GBPUSD is now losing upside momentum after the former strength. Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.6158 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6180 (R2) and 1.6200 (R3) in potential Downwards scenario: If instrument gains momentum on the downside, we expect to see penetration below the next support at 1.6127 (S1). In such scenario we suggest next targets at 1.6106 (S2) and 1.6083 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6158, 1.6180, 1.6200
Support Levels: 1.6127, 1.6106, 1.6083

---------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 89.667 | LOW: 89.249 | BID: 89.613 | ASK: 89.618 | CHANGE: 0.49% | TIME: 08 : 02:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 89.70 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 89.93 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect final target at 90.17 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our 20 Simple Moving Average at 89.34 (S1) acts as next support level. Below here opens the way for a return to 89.09 (S2) price level. Potential is seen to reach final target for today at 88.85 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 89.70, 89.93, 90.17
Support Levels: 89.34, 89.09, 88.85

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 15 2013

Bernanke provides no signs of QE expiration; raising debt ceiling crucial

Ben Bernanke is giving a speech at the University of Michigan, with the talk centered on two big issues. One is the long run sustainability of the US debt, while the other is the fragile recovery. Fed's Bernanke said Federal budget must be brought under control, warning that plans to adjust the budget should be carefully well thought in order to avoid pushing the economy into recession He said that the economy "is not out of the woods", and stressed the improved optimism after the fiscal cliff deal, which in Bernanke's words, "eliminated a good bit of the restrictive components."

Fed's Bernanke noted 'some modest improvement' in jobs market, although he wants to see rosier numbers in the economy and the labour market. With regards to the number of tools available to stimulate the economy, Bernanke said "the Fed is not out of ammunition", adding that judging by the reaction of markets since the establishments of the first QE program, "overall QE has succeeded in reducing long-term rates; we have found (QE) to be an effective tool." Bernanke said is early to determine the effect of asset purchases, suggesting the extension of QE in the near term seems a done deal, while waiting further proves, especially in the labour market, to determine length of QE extension. While growth has been moderate, the housing sector, has shown positives signs, Bernanke said. "For the first time since 06/07 we have seen sustained increase in home prices, which should help us throughout the year..." https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15012013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-15 07:00 GMT | Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-15 08:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)
2013-01-15 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-15 13:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

Forex News
2013-01-15 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates below 1.61 ahead of UK data
2013-01-15 04:39 GMT | EUR/AUD capped below 1.2700
2013-01-15 04:05 GMT | EUR/JPY strong rejection from 120s breaks below 119
2013-01-15 03:14 GMT | USD/JPY longs run to the exits; 88.62 new weekly low

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33935 LOW 1.33482 BID 1.33557 ASK 1.33566 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 07 : 56:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment looks balanced and false beak outs are possible. Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.3404 (R1) might establish new leg of uptrend formation and enable higher targets at 1.3434 (R2) and 1.346 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market structure remains consolidative and easing below the support level at 1.3336 (S1) is likely scenario for today. Our targets located at 1.3307 (S2) and 1.3280 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.3404, 1.3434, 1.3463
Support Levels: 1.3336, 1.3307, 1.3280

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60938 LOW 1.60674 BID 1.60713 ASK 1.60723 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 07 : 56:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Instrument trapped to the range mode condition on the medium-term perspective. Risks of market strengthening are seen above the next resistance level at 1.6097 (R1). Our suggested targets locates at 1.6117 (R2) and 1.6138 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if it manages to surpass support level at 1.6064 (S1). Next support levels are seen at 1.6045 (S2) and 1.6026 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6097, 1.6117, 1.6138
Support Levels: 1.6064, 1.6045, 1.6026

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 89.629 LOW 88.618 BID 88.969 ASK 88.975 CHANGE -0.56% TIME 07 : 56:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation today, though risk of positive tone establishment is seen above the next resistance level at 89.30 (R1). Any penetration above this level would put in focus higher targets at 89.54 (R2) and 89.79 (R3). Downwards scenario: We suspect that the market might extend short term losses below the fresh low formed today. Easing below our support at 88.60 (S1) would suggest next targets at 88.36 (S3) and 88.10 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 89.30, 89.54, 89.79
Support Levels: 88.60, 88.36, 88.10

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC )

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 16 2013

Fitch warns it might cut US rating

Much to the chagrin of investors, a fresh warning from the ratings agency Fitch was issues, stating that a debt ceiling failure would likely cause a ratings review. “…With no legal authorization for net debt issuance, the Treasury would be forced to immediately eliminate the deficit – a fiscal contraction twice as great as the recently avoided ‘fiscal cliff’ – arrears on such obligations would not constitute a default event from a sovereign rating perspective, but very likely prompt a downgrade even as debt obligations continued to be met.” As such, Fitch Ratings’ expectation – along with that of the American public and general contingent of market participants – is that Congress will raise the debt ceiling, thereby leaving the risk of a U.S. sovereign default as extremely low. “Nonetheless, a, failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner will prompt a formal review of the U.S. sovereign ratings.” notes Joe Wiesenthal.

According to Fitch analysts, the debt ceiling is an ineffective and potentially dangerous mechanism for enforcing fiscal discipline – it does not prevent tax and spending decisions that will incur debt issuance in excess of the ceiling while the sanction of not raising the ceiling risks a sovereign default and renders such a threat incredible. Never mind that the statutory limitation on federal debt is a long-standing feature of the U.S. fiscal framework and applies to nearly all Treasury debt, whether held by the public or in government accounts. The fact of the matter is that any protracted debate prior to increasing the debt ceiling is not an exceptional event, however against the backdrop of unprecedentedly large peacetime budget deficits and outstanding debt, any delay in raising the limit would pose ever increasing risks to the ability of the federal government to honor its obligations in a timely fashion. The last time Congress approved an increase in the debt ceiling in August 2011, the federal government came precariously close to being in a situation where, in the words of the Treasury Secretary, it would be unable “to meet our commitments securely”.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical...nuary-16-2013/

Forex Economic Calendar

2013-01-16 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-16 13:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-16 15:30 GMT | United States. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Jan 11)
2013-01-16 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Beige Book

Forex News

2013-01-16 05:28 GMT | GBP/USD little changed above 1.6050
2013-01-16 05:10 GMT | EUR/GBP back to flat for the week; above 0.8250
2013-01-16 04:14 GMT | AUD/JPY dips below 93.00, finds 200-hr EMA
2013-01-16 03:40 GMT | GBP/JPY dealing with weekly lows around 141.70



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33173 | LOW: 1.32788 | BID: 1.32870 | ASK: 1.32876 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08:00:18



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the 1.3318 (R1) today. In such scenario we suggest next target at 1.3345 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting last resistance level at 1.3371 (R3). Downwards scenario: If it fail to go higher, we might see further retracement development below the key support at 1.3262 (S1) with next target in focus at 1.3240 (S2). Final target locates at 1.3217 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3318, 1.3345, 1.3371
Support Levels: 1.3262, 1.3240, 1.3217

----------------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.60803 | LOW: 1.60513 | BID: 1.60544 | ASK: 1.60555 | CHANGE: -0.06% | TIME: 08:00:19



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday and we expect some volatility increase ahead. Possible strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.6067 (R1). Next targets holds at 1.6079 (R2) and 1.6090 (R3) levels. Downwards scenario: Our focus now shifted to the next support level at 1.6031 (S1). Extension of losses below it might push price towards to our targets at 1.6019 (S2) and 1.6007 (S3) by forming downtrend formation.

Resistance Levels: 1.6067, 1.6079, 1.6090
Support Levels: 1.6031, 1.6019, 1.6007

---------------------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 88.87 | LOW: 87.946 | BID: 88.156 | ASK: 88.162 | CHANGE: -0.69% | TIME: 08:00:20



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the upside and place our next resistance level at 88.28 (R1). Break here would enable next targets at 88.47 (R2) and 88.64 (R3). Downwards scenario: Significant retracement during the Asian session established negative market sentiment for today. Possible depreciation below the next support level at 87.95 (S1) would suggest next targets at 87.76 (S2) and 87.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 88.28, 88.47, 88.64
Support Levels: 87.95, 87.76, 87.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )