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Forex Daily Analysis

Feb 23, 2011 03:37 pm
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Dollar falls against euro and sterling, after hawkish forecast statements coming from ECB and EoB

The dollar was falling against major currencies on rising expectations of ECB and BoE rate hike, due to recent hawkish statements coming from the two institutions officials. The dollar’s status as safe-haven due to Middle East tensions was offset by the recent comments coming from European Central Bank officials and Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes. Both currencies erased their losses against the greenback. The euro was up 0.84% at 1.3776 USD after hitting a low of 1.3524 USD just a day before, due to rising tensions in the Middle East that has lead to at least 300 deaths. The single currency has been supported by hawkish comments coming from the European Central Bank (ECB). On Tuesday, ECB board member Yves March said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the central bank might need to adjust its view on inflation at the next monetary policy meeting at the beginning of March as price pressures intensify. ECB policy makers Juergen Stark and Lorenzo Bini Smagh have also been quoted recently making hawkish remarks. The British pound rose 0.67% at 1.6244 USD, after reaching a high of 1.6270 USD, as Bank of England February policy minutes were published, showing a more hawkish view than expected, with a 6-3 split in favour of raising interest rates. Bank of England Chief Economist Spencer Dale joined previous supporters of a rate hike Andrew Sentence and Martin Weale in voting for increasing the bank rate, according to the minutes. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.23%, to 82.50 JPY, after rising to a high of 82.88 JPY. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was 0.65%, at 72.27.

Feb 24, 2011 11:07 am
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Euro extends gains against the dollar, Swiss franc up on Middle East concerns

The euro extended its gains against the US dollar, on rate hike expectations, while the safe-haven Swiss franc rose to record highs on Middle East tensions.

The single currency bought 1.3787 USD, after breaking the 1.38 level to trade at 1.3808 USD. Just two days before, the euro was at 1.3524 USD. The currency gained support from recent hawkish comments on inflation by ECB officials, which raised expectations of a rate increase.

The Swiss franc climbed to record levels against the dollar as tensions in Libya, the 17th world’s largest oil producer holding Africa’s largest crude oil reserves, lead to increasing oil prices that prompted investors to seek refuge in the safe haven currency.

The dollar fell as low as 0.9238 CHF before starting to erase some of the losses and trade at 0.9272 CHF, still down 0.6%. The euro was trading at 1.2779 CHF against the Swiss franc, after slipping to a low of 1.2703 CHF.

The British pound was losing its steam against the dollar, after the minutes from Bank of England February monetary policy meeting showing a more hawkish tone than expected boosted the currency. A third member joined Andrew Sentence and Martin Weale in their vote for raising the bank rate from the record low of 0.5%. The sterling rose as high as 1.6270 USD on Wednesday, but was trading at 1.6166 USD on Wednseday.

The Japanese yen has been also supported by rising tensions in the Middle East and the dollar slipped to 81.75 JPY, down 0.85%.

Feb 24, 2011 02:11 pm
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Euro steadies after strong climb against dollar, Swiss franc extends gains

The euro steadied after a strong climb due to increasing expectations of a rate hike, while the safe-haven Swiss franc rose to record highs against the dollar on Middle East concerns. Recent hawkish statements coming from ECB officials raising expectations of an interest rate hike before Fed have boosted the euro that went as high as 1.3808 USD before the currency steadied around 1.3760 USD level. It was still up 1.1% on the day. The Swiss franc has been supported by increasing tensions in the Middle East with Libya now on focus, after the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. Revolts in Libya, the 17th world largest oil producer and the holding Africa’s largest crude oil reserves have lead to soaring oil prices, weighing on the dollar due to concerns the US economy is currently vulnerable to these price hikes, although the currency has taken advantage in the past of increasing risk aversion. The dollar was down 0.77% at 0.9257 CHF, after hitting a low of 0.9237 CHF. The euro also slipped against the safe-haven Swiss franc to a low of 1.2703 CHF, trading further at 1.2753 CHF, still down 0.58%. The Japanese yen was also supported by safe-haven demand. The dollar was trading 81.71 JPY, down 0.93%. The dollar index was at 77.16, down 0.32% on the day, after falling to its lowest in three weeks at 77.01. The gains in crude oil have also benefited the Norwegian krone. The euro slipped as low as 7.7112 NOK, down 0.44%, while the dollar fell to 5.5964 NOK, down 0.6%. The sterling edged down after higher expectations for a rate hike had shortly boosted the currency. The British pound had risen after the minutes from Bank of England February monetary policy meeting showed a third member joining Andrew Sentence and Martin Weale in their vote for raising the bank rate from the record low of 0.5%. After reaching a high of 1.6270 USD on Wednesday, the sterling was trading at 1.6195 USD on Thursday.

Feb 25, 2011 11:06 am
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The euro slipped against the dollar after strong gains brought by increasing expectations of a rate hike, while the British pound fell broadly after weaker than expected GDP data for the last quarter.

Euro down after short rebound, sterling slips on GDP data The euro was down 0.1% at 1.3782 USD, after reaching a high of 1.3837 USD. Hawkish statements coming from ECB helped the currency as expectations of interest rate hikes before the Federal Reserve rose. The British pound was down 0.4% at 1.6073 USD, after revised data showed the economy shrank with 0.6% in the last quarter. The sterling had traded as high as 1.6161 USD due to minutes of BoE February monetary policy meeting that showed a more hawkish view than expected. The Swiss franc continued to attract investors attention, as they seek refuge due to Middle East tensions. But the dollar started to recover suddenly from a drop that lead the currency as low as 0.9237 CHF. It was trading after the climb around 0.9289 CHF, up 0.32%. The euro was falling against the Swiss franc and traded around 1.2794 CHF, after a short rebound that lead the currency as high as 1.2842 CHF.

Feb 25, 2011 01:34 pm
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Dollar edges up as oil prices ease, Swiss franc slightly down

The dollar continued its recovery against the single currency as oil prices eased, leading also to losses for the safe-haven Swiss franc. The euro had reached a high of 1.3837 USD on increasing expectations of a rate hike and Middle East turmoil that weighed on the dollar. ECB policymaker Axel Weber said on Thursday that the only direction for rates now is up, while Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi said in a newspaper interview that the bank would have to guarantee that inflation expectations remain well anchored. Draghi is seen as one of the most probable successor at the presidency of the European Central Bank (ECB) once Jean-Claude Trichet’s eight-year term expires in October this year. But oil prices, lately boosted by Libya popular uprisings, have been easing since Saudi Arabia said it was willing to step in to make up for any shortages resulting from tension in Libya. The dollar started to recover some the lost ground and the euro fell to a low of 1.3757 USD. Calmer oil markets have helped both the dollar and the euro to recover some of their losses against the Swiss franc, recently sought after as a safe-haven currency. The dollar was up 0.25%, at 0.9283 CHF from a low of 0.9237 CHF, while the euro climbed to a high of 1.2842 CHF before slipping 1.2779 CHF, but still up 0.07%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was up 0.22% at 77.22. The Japanese yen, lately also supported by Middle East concerns, slowed down its fast climb against the dollar. The greenback was trading lower 0.18%, buying 81.73 JPY. The British pound was hit by a revision of the preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2010 that showed an economic contraction of 0.6% in comparison with the previous three months. The news pared recent increased expectations of a near term bank rate hike. The sterling fell from 1.6161 USD to a low of 1.6067 USD and steadied around 1.6090 USD, down 0.29%.

Feb 28, 2011 11:01 am
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Dollar down against major currencies The dollar was losing ground against the euro, after giving shy signs of a possible rebound. The euro was up 0.46%, trading at 1.3825 USD from a low of 1.3709 USD, after reaching a high of 1.3845 USD. The single currency has been lately supported by hawkish comments coming from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, ahead of the monetary policy scheduled for Thursday. Analysts are waiting for clear signs that ECB is prepared for raising interest rates, although they could be disappointed as some of bloc’s countries are still trying to find solutions to tackle the financial crisis effects. Also, markets are focusing also on the congressional testimony of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week to find out how the central bank’s agenda looks like. The Swiss franc was losing ground both against the dollar and the euro, after reaching record highs due to increasing tensions in Middle East that made investors head towards safe-haven currencies. The dollar was on a mixed trend, down 0.06%, at 0.9275 CHF, after reaching a low of 0.9255 CHF, while the euro recovered some of its losses and climbed to 1.2842 CHF, up 0.54%. The British pound was up against the dollar, reaching a high of 1.6241 USD, up 0.67%. The sterling has been lately supported by hawkish signals coming from Bank of England raising expectations of a bank rate hike. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.5%, at 76.90. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar went up 0.15%, at 81.82 JPY. Higher oil prices supported the Canadian dollar and the US dollar fell to a low of 0.9750 CAD, but later recovered some of the lost ground, to trade at 0.9771 CAD, still down 0.13%.

Feb 28, 2011 01:53 pm
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Dollar extends fall against major currencies on high oil prices The euro steadied against the dollar after a strong climb during the first part of Monday trading session with increasing expectations of a rate hike and as the greenback lost ground against major currencies on higher oil prices. The euro was trading at 1.3839 USD, up 0.59%, after reaching a high of 1.3848 USD. Markets expectations of an euro zone rate hike have increased on recent ECB hawkish comments and investors are waiting for Thursday monetary policy meeting to give signs of tighting the poilicy before the Federal Reserve. Markets are focusing also on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. The dollar showed mixed trading against the Swiss franc, which has recently hit record highs on increasing tensions in Middle East that made investors head towards safe-haven currencies. The greenback was down 0.01%, at 0.9282 USD, after hitting a low of 0.9255 USD. Oil prices rose more than 1 dollar per barrel on Monday as protests in Oman fuelled wider concern about supply from the Middle East. Recent popular uprisings in Libya dramatically reduced exports from North Africa. The euro recovered some of its losses against the Swiss franc and climbed to 1.2848 CHF, up 0.57%. The British pound was up against the dollar, reaching a high of 1.6244 USD and was later steady at 1.6225 USD, up 0.73%. The sterling has been lately supported by hawkish signals coming from Bank of England raising expectations of a bank rate hike. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar went up to a high of 81.95 JPY and was later trading at 81.83 JPY, up 0.16%. The euro was steady against the Japanese yen, at 113.24 JPY, up 0.74%, climbing from a low of 111.94 JPY.

Mar 01, 2011 10:50 am
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Dollar still down against euro, but struggling to climb versus yen and Swiss franc

The dollar hangs near its three-and-a-half-month low against the euro and extended losses versus the British pound, while easing concerns about the Middle East tensions helped the greenback recover some lost ground against Swiss franc and yen. After falling as low as 1.3784 USD at the opening of the European trading session, the single currency reached a high of 1.3854 USD and was later up 0.3%, at 1.3837 USD. Markets are waiting for Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, after officials have recently made hawkish statements that raised expectations of a rate hike sooner than in the case of Fed. Also, Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will give on Tuesday his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, but markets don’t expect Fed to abandon its view on supporting economic growth. The British pound climbed against the dollar on view Bank of England will also raise interest rates before Fed, as minutes of the last policy meeting offered a more hawkish view than expected. On Tuesday, the sterling reached a high of 1.6328 USD against the dollar and was later trading at 1.66302 USD, still up 0.29%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.15%, at 76.77. Against the yen, the dollar recovered some of the lost ground and was trading at 82.11 JPY, up 0.37%, after reaching a high of 82.23 JPY. Although the situation in the Middle East is still far from stable, oil prices have steadied around high record levels as there wasn’t any significant worsening of the situation. The dollar managed to climb also against the safe-haven Swiss franc, which has strongly attracted investors’ attention since the start of the Middle East uprisings. The dollar was trading at 0.9298 CHF, up 0.13%, after rising to a high of 0.9321 CHF. The euro was also up against the Swiss franc, at 1.2871 CHF, up 0.42%.

Mar 01, 2011 01:43 pm
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Dollar still down versus euro, hits 3-year low against Canadian counterpart

The dollar continued to hang near its three-and-a-half-month low against the euro, after falling also to three-year low versus the Canadian dollar ahead of Bernanke’s Congress testimony, with spreading expectations that other central banks will raise interest rates before Fed. The euro was up 0.17%, buying 1.3826 USD, after reaching a high of 1.3854 USD against the greenback. Markets are waiting for Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, after officials have recently made hawkish statements that raised expectations of a rate hike sooner than in the case of Fed. Also, Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will give on Tuesday his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, and markets don’t expect Fed to abandon its view on supporting economic growth through a loose monetary policy. A statement reinforcing this idea could continue to put pressure on the dollar. Against the Canadian dollar, the dollar fell to its lowest point in three years, 0.9681 USD. It bounced back above 0.97 USD, but it was still down 0.1%. The dollar managed to erase Tuesday losses against the British pound, that climbed on expectations Bank of England will also raise interest rates before Fed, as minutes of the last policy meeting offered a more hawkish view than expected. On Tuesday, the sterling reached a high of 1.6328 USD against the dollar, but was later buying 1.6265 USD, although still up 0.05%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was down 0.05%, at 76.85. The dollar was though recovering some of its recent losses against safe-havens Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Although the situation in the Middle East is still far from stable, oil prices have steadied around high record levels as there wasn’t any significant worsening of the situation, which helped the greenback. Against the yen, the dollar was down from its high of 82.23 JPY, trading at 82.07 JPY, although still up 0.32%. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar climbed 0.23%, trading at 0.9307 CHF. The euro was also up against the Swiss franc, at 1.2864 CHF, up 0.35%.

Mar 02, 2011 10:33 am
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Dollar down against major currencies, erases Tuesday gains The dollar was losing ground on Wednesday European trading session against major currencies, after a broad gains a day before. The euro had fallen against the dollar not managing the break key support level to a low of 1.3741 USD, but started to recover its lost ground during the first hours of the European session and was trading at 1.38 USD, up 0.17%. The markets are focusing on ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, waiting for signals that reinforce the view of raising interest rates before Fed, especially after Ben Bernanke speech on Tuesday. The British pound reached a high of 1.6298 USD after slipping to a low of 1.6214 USD, and was later trading 1.6278 USD, still up 0.09%. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against a basket of other major currencies, was steady around the 76.90, after a climb due to dollar’s rise against the euro. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 81.92 JPY, up 0.15%, after a short bounce that raised the currency to a high of 82.11 JPY, retracing shortly after. The Australian dollar was recovering lost ground against the dollar and was trading at 1.0130 USD, down 0.13%, after hitting a low of 1.0083 USD.